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  • Weekly Wrap | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    elevated levels then the global economic recovery will be in jeopardy The reporting season starts next week and will give an insight into the impact of higher input prices resulting from higher commodities prices Overnight the Dow closed down 0 2 at 12 409 while in the broader market the S P 500 index was down 0 2 at 1 333 and the tech heavy Nasdaq ended down 0 1 at 2 796 Three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange European Markets European markets have been trading flat this week There have been a number of key drivers for the week including interest rates bank stress tests and the Portuguese bailout Early in the week results of the bank stress tests did not throw up any major surprises but as expected European banks will be doing another round of capital raising to boost their balance sheets Markets reacted well to the much anticipated financial bailout request from Portugal Bank stocks in Portugal managed to retain their gains after the debt laden country said it will join Greece and Ireland in requesting international financial assistance European banks with the most exposure to the PIIGS countries also gained Markets also accepted the news of the well signaled rate hike from the ECB which lifted its key interest rate to 1 25 from 1 In the medium term rate hikes are generally seen as a positive indicator because of the economic strength they signal In London the market traded flat as the Bank of England said it would leave its key interest rate unchanged at 0 5 for another month Overnight the FTSE 100 index closed down 0 6 at 6 007 the German DAX was down 0 5 at 179 while in France the CAC was down 0 5 at 4 028 Asian Markets Asian markets generally ended higher this week though trading volumes were down due to a number of markets being closed for public holidays Aside from Japan the big news in the region was China again using a public holiday to surprise markets when it announced it will raise interest rates for the fourth time in seven months In Hong Kong and China markets have traded higher with the Shanghai Composite holding above 3 000 The Chinese central bank has raised its one year lending rate by a quarter point to 6 31 Many investment houses are now rating China as a Buy with HSBC Macquarie Group Goldman Sachs Group and Deutsche Bank all issuing bullish forecasts They see that the Chinese government is succeeding in controlling inflation without derailing growth in an economy forecast by the World Bank to expand 9 in 2011 Bloomberg data shows the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index price earnings ratio is 19 below its five year average after profits surged 32 last year News of the earthquake in northeastern Japan yesterday came after Asian markets had closed so Asian investors will no doubt react as nerves are tested In China the SSE Composite closed up 0 2 at 3 008 while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was flat at 24 282 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was flat at 9 590 Our View The S P ASX 200 looks set to test key resistance levels next week The index is currently trading at 4926 testing its key level The focus near term will be on US earnings reports the Aussie dollar and commodities prices particularly crude oil Key levels for the index next week will be 4850 to 5025 By Michael Hevern Head of Research Tags Asian Markets ASX ASX News Business News Dow European Markets MDS Financial Nasdaq Nikkei S P500 spi stock market Stock Market Analysis stockmarket Trader Dealer Trader Dealer New trading US Market wrap Weekly Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis Trader Dealer News No Comments Stock Market Analysis Weekly Market Wrap Friday January 21st 2011 Markets Consolidate On Fears That China May Tighten Monetary Policy The Australian market S P ASX200 has spent the week trading around the 4800 level while overseas markets have provided mixed leads Investors have spent the week wrestling with US earnings reports European debt rescue plans and the strong economic reports from China Markets overseas have pulled back from record levels with what appears to be a period of consolidation at least near term US Markets The US reporting season has continued this week generally confirming that the economic recovery is still intact Goldman Sachs was disappointing however with its 4Q earnings falling 53 percent due to the slowdown in its trading and investment banking businesses This news was offset by Morgan Stanley reporting that its 4Q income jumped to a better than expected 60 percent thanks to strong investment banking revenues Meanwhile technology stocks also reported well with Apple s 1Q net income jumping to US6 billion while revenue jumped more than 70 on strong holiday sales of the iPhone and iPad IBM reported a doubling of its net income in the 2Q pushing its revenue 50 higher and supporting the view that US corporations continue to invest in technology to improve productivity Elsewhere the mining sector weighed on the US markets as commodity prices fell European Markets European markets pulled back this week with the FTSE trading at 5 week lows The European debt contagion fears have again eased as key European finance ministers met to discuss the means of boosting the eurozone debt rescue fund If they can agree on how best to strengthen the EUR750 billion rescue fund for debt laden PIIGS economies this should improve investor sentiment Asian Markets Asian markets have focused on China this week with the release of key economic data yesterday confirming the Chinese economy expanded 10 3 percent in 2010 renewing concerns that there will be a need for more policy tightening to check consumer prices and cool economic growth Also Chinese inflation rose 4 6 percent in December slowing from 5 1 percent in November Miners and financials have led the pullback in the region this week due to fears that the strong Chinese data will require the government to further tighten monetary policy Commodities Commodities prices fell again during the week on concerns over the prospect of weakening Chinese demand which has been a huge factor in sending commodities prices surging over the past year Commodities with supply side issues are still holding up relatively well The Aussie dollar has been hovering around US dollar parity again this week as sentiment fluctuates around commodities Australian Markets Australian investors have been digesting the impacts of the devastating floods on the east coast of Australia which will be negative in the near term Resource stocks have taken a knock due to weakness in commodity prices and concerns that Chinese tightening may threaten China s demand for raw materials There continues to be M A activity in the small to mid cap resource stocks RIO BHP and Fortescue have confirmed that production was affected by recent weather events however earnings are holding up due to elevated commodities prices The Fortescue share price has been volatile though as the Singapore state investment company Temasek sold its stake in the company for a 10 discount Next week will be a shortened trading week and near term our market will be impacted by US corporate earnings and the Chinese response to their strong economic data Bu Michael Hevern Head of Research Tags Asian Markets ASX ASX News Commodities European Markets Stock Market Analysis Trader Dealer Trader Dealer News trading US markets Weekly Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis Trader Dealer News No Comments Stock Market Analysis Weekly Market Wrap Friday November 26th 2010 Focus On Korea and EU Debt Contagion Summary Global shares prices have been treading water this week with a negative bias as a number of headwinds have been holding back the bulls These include Escalating tensions in the Korean peninsular The shortened week and the widening probe into insider trading in the US Fears of contagion of Euro debt in the EU Low trading volumes as investors chose to be cautious Asian markets have been under pressure due to the tensions in Korea but investors appear to be seeing any pullback as a chance to buy The European markets have been focusing on the sovereign debt concerns in Ireland but the other PIIGS economies still face issues with debt which need to be resolved in the coming months US investors have been positioning themselves for a positive move on Black Friday which often sets the tone for consumers through until Christmas The Aussie market has been under pressure this week and we look set to close lower for a third week Trading activity will be critical next week as we have not traded lower for more than three consecutive weeks since the sell off in April US Markets US markets have been trading in a shortened week with a break for the Thanksgiving holiday Investors appear to have been positioning their portfolios on the expectations of relatively strong sales for Black Friday as the day after the Thanksgiving holiday is known This often sets the tone for the rest of the US holiday shopping season Elsewhere in the US financial stocks have been under pressure as the regulators launched FBI raids as part of a probe into insider trading Overnight the US markets were closed with the Dow closed at 11 187 while in the broader market the S P 500 index closed at 1 198 and the tech heavy Nasdaq closed at 2 543 European Markets European stocks have been consolidating this week with trading sentiment in Europe being primarily driven by news about the Irish debt The Irish government has now revealed the details of its EUR15 billion austerity plan but the Bank of Ireland sold off as it was revealed that the Irish government will take a majority stake as part of the bailout package Other PIIGS economies still face issues over sovereign debt in the coming months with borrowing costs for Portugal and Spain on the rise The German market continues to outperform trading around 30 month highs after the Ifo Institute released the closely watched business climate index which rose to its highest level since the reunification of Germany Overnight in London the FTSE 100 index closed up 0 7 or 42 points at 5 699 the German DAX was up 0 8 or 56 points at 6 880 and in France the CAC was up 0 4 or 13 points at 3 779 Asian Markets Asian markets were sold off earlier in the week as investor sentiment took a hit initially from Asian investors reacting to the North Korean artillery attack on a South Korean island But foreign bargain hunters appear to have stepped in as the week progressed as fears of a rapid escalation in the conflict abated Chinese investors remain cautious about the prospects of further tightening measures by the government Also in China the economic planning agency committed to taking measures to rein in prices for agricultural products including releasing additional reserves of grain and edible oils and cutting transportation costs This action may well support soft commodity prices into 2011 Japanese stocks held around the 5 month high as the yen s decline against the euro spurred buying interest The Japanese Nikkei remains above 10 000 and its 200 day moving average resistance that has held since May Yesterday in China the SSE Composite closed up 1 3 or 38 points at 2 898 while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was up marginally 0 1 or 31 points at 23 055 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was up 0 5 or 50 points at 10 080 Commodities The US dollar had another positive week and continues to threaten base metal prices near term Overnight commodities recovered in thin trading due to the US holiday The benchmark crude NYMEX for December delivery was up 0 4 or US0 32 to settle at US84 18 Copper prices backed off 2 year highs with copper for December delivery down 0 2 or 1 5 cents at US3 7555 Gold prices are at all time highs again with December gold down marginally 0 1 at US1 372 10 ASX News The Aussie market has again been trading lower and looks set to close lower for a third consecutive week The big story of the week has been the break up of Telstra and the NBN as the government endeavours to resolve the issues by the end of the week Our View Markets are under pressure near term but there still appears to be buying on any pullback which suggests that we are entering into a period of consolidation that will ultimately be good for the markets into 2011 Data out of the US is still pointing to a recovering economy the German economy continues to outperform and Chinese growth is still robust Investors should continue to monitor the US dollar s performance as a leading indicator for any change in sentiment near term The S P ASX200 is currently trading around 4605 which is close to the key support level which has held since August This indicates that next week will be key for trading into the end of the year Investors need to again be nimble next week as we monitor Korean tensions China s possible tightening measures EU sovereign debt and the reaction to Black Friday in the US Next week we will discuss a leading indicator which will give investors an advantage in determining the direction of the ASX market in the coming months so look out for that By Michael Hevern Head of Research Tags Asian Markets Commodities European Markets Nasdaq Stock Market Analysis Trader Dealer trading US Market wrap Weekly Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis Trader Dealer News No Comments Stock Market Analysis Weekly Market Wrap Friday October 1st 2010 Weekly Market Wrap Best September For Decades The markets have seen profit taking in the past couple of sessions as investors rule off a profitable quarter after a spectacular performance in September Commodities were again in focus primarily driven by the US dollar index trading at 8 month lows which pushed copper to fresh 5 month highs and gold to record prices above the key US1 300 level and even crude oil joined in on the party European markets cooled off this week as investor concerns over the financial health of European banks and civil unrest across Europe over austerity measures dented investor sentiment Asian stock markets are trading mixed with Japan succumbing to the strong yen again and China mixed for the week Expect to see profit taking on our markets in the near term as the ASX market was up 5 for the month and up 8 3 for the quarter We have detailed below the monthly and quarterly performances of the major market indices US Markets U S markets have had the strongest September since 1939 and the best monthly performance since October 2002 as the fears of the dreaded double dip have abated Investors expectations that the U S Federal Reserve is prepared to pull the trigger on additional stimulus measures as necessary has helped the market this week The Dow Jones is now up 3 5 year to date YTD History is on the investors side as over the past 68 years the Dow continues to rise 71 of the time once the measure is in the black in the first three quarters of the year according to the Dow Jones Newswires Overnight the Dow closed was down 0 4 at 10 788 up 7 7 for month up 10 4 for quarter while in the broader market the S P 500 index was down 0 3 at 1 141 up 8 8 for month up 10 9 for quarter and the tech heavy Nasdaq ended down 0 3 at 2 369 up 11 7 for month up 12 3 for quarter Tonight the Institute for Supply Management ISM report on manufacturing activity should give a further indication as to whether the recovery is sustainable with business manufacturing activity being a key driver of the current economic recovery European Markets European stocks drifted sideways this week on rising concerns over sovereign debt issues in Europe Concerns over European banks and Ireland weighed on the markets and the civil unrest which had hundreds and thousands of workers across Europe protesting government spending cuts was also a concern Debt concerns resurfaced as the Moody s ratings agency downgraded Spain s sovereign rating to Aa1 from Aaa and a report came out that the Irish government s budget deficit will rise to 32 of its GDP this year In the U K the IMF has cuts its 2011 economic growth forecasts which also weighed on the markets Over the quarter the U K has outperformed Germany which has been range trading since January Overnight in London the FTSE 100 index closed down 0 4 at 5 549 up 6 7 for month up 12 9 for quarter the German DAX closed down 0 3 at 6 229 up 5 4 for month up 4 4 for quarter while in France the CAC was down 0 6 at 3 715 up 6 5 for month up 4 1 for quarter Asian Markets Asian stock markets are trading mixed this week A better than expected business sentiment figure in the BoJ s quarterly Tankan survey was not enough to over come their worries over the strong yen In China the Purchasing Managers Index PMI which is a gauge of nationwide manufacturing activity rose to a 5 month high reading of 52 9 in September This pushed Chinese shares higher but their market is still trapped in a trading range For the quarter the Hong Kong market has been outperforming Overnight in China the SSE Composite closed up

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/tag/weekly-wrap/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Traders Losing Patience With Central Banks: Weekly Market Wrap | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    region are being hit by the weak eurozone demand due to the worsening debt crisis In Japan the government has lowered its assessment of the Japanese economy cutting its view on personal consumption home building exports imports and industrial production In China industrial company profit has fallen but there has been speculation some state owned companies will announce share buybacks after an unidentified official at the China Securities Regulatory Commission said that publicly traded companies especially those whose stock prices are below their book values have an obligation to buy back their own shares However the Chinese market is still down the most in six weeks and is finishing at February 2009 lows In commodities gold is easing back from 4 month highs as the US dollar fell to a 2 month low and Treasury yields touched the lowest point in more than a week due to speculation that the Federal Reserve will add to monetary stimulus Crude oil rose to a three month high but is backing off the US98 level in the near term and is looking to find support above its key long term technical level as the futures are still above its 200 day moving average Copper continues to hover above 4 month lows The Australian market is backing off 3 month highs for a second week due to impatience over the length of time it is taking for coordinated global central bank action and our mining and energy stocks are seeing heavy selling as profit takers stepped in after a 4 week rally after the Chinese Flash PMI disappointed 4330 is the current pivotal level and the 4250 level will be the critical support level for next week In our market the defensive sectors have rebounded as traders have locked in their dividends Our earnings season reporting has been mixed Companies that disappoint are being punished through their share prices Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks are all rebounding this week The industrials materials and energy sectors have seen profit taking but the financial sector remains at 12 month highs and the health care sector is at all time highs Traders are hanging out for news in the form of a coordinated effort towards monetary easing but this will not happen until at least mid September Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US and locally as the Aussie stock reporting season nears an end Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4309 and is looking to close the week lower again Key levels for the index next week will be 4250 and 4380 with 4330 the key short term pivot level Contact me at

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/2012/08/31/traders-losing-patience-with-central-banks-weekly-market-wrap/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Australian Market Wrap | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    falls Key levels for the index next week will be 4430 and 4550 with 4470 the key short term pivot level Traders are being cautiously optimistic on the back of positive news flow regarding the resolution of the US fiscal cliff the resolution of the Greek debt crisis and as they digest the key leadership changes in the US and China Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and we can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you improve your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Advisory This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News australian market wrap Commodities eurozone markets Stock Market Analysis us market news Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Traders Losing Patience With Central Banks Weekly Market Wrap Friday August 31st 2012 Traders have taken profits off the table this week Markets are hovering around multi month and multi year highs while trading volumes have hit lows not seen since the GFC in 2008 and the delay in central bank movement towards further stimulus is causing impatience among traders US investors are getting mixed messages over the potential for QE3 as their market backs off 4 year highs while in Europe the markets have pulled back from eleven consecutive weeks of gains as profit takers stepped in The Chinese market remains at 4 year lows with concerns over their faltering economy translating into disappointing corporate earnings for Chinese companies US stock markets have traded in a tight range for the past four weeks but retreated overnight as investors took profits ahead of the Jackson Hole summit The trading volumes remain at lows not seen since 2008 excluding days surrounding holidays In the broader markets the growth sensitive sectors led the falls with the Materials Technology and Energy sectors all down Even though the three benchmark indexes closed overnight in the red they are still on track for a third consecutive month of gains Investors are keenly awaiting the speech from the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole Wyoming tonight where he is expected to critique the current economic situation but is likely to fall short of announcing a move to QE3 as policy makers have already said they are prepared to provide new stimulus fairly soon if the US economic conditions deteriorate further The next FOMC Fed meeting is on 15 September European stock markets have fallen for a third straight session as economic data is confirming the global slowdown The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index is down 1 1 for the week but is currently up 1 4 for August Traders are uneasy as they await action from the ECB to address the worsening eurozone debt crisis Across the region the growth sensitive sectors led the declines The German market the largest in the eurozone looks set to close weaker for a second week as data showed German unemployment increased for a fifth straight month in August while economic confidence in the eurozone fell more than economists forecast to a three year low German business confidence also fell for a fourth straight month in August as the sovereign debt crisis slowed growth in Europe s largest economy The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index dropped to 102 3 from 103 2 in July the lowest reading since March 2010 German economic growth has also slowed to 0 3 percent in the second quarter from 0 5 percent in the first as the debt crisis hit demand for exports and prompted companies to postpone capital investments Traders are still waiting on the European Central Bank ECB which is expected to formulate a bond buying plan and for the representatives of Greece s international creditors to issue a progress report in September and also for a German court to announce its decision on the legality of the eurozone s proposed permanent bailout fund The ECB President Mario Draghi has pledged to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro and the European political leaders agreed to ease repayment terms on loans to Spanish banks but it appears the debt situation is worsening in the Spanish region Asian stock markets have pulled back again for a second consecutive week The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has wiped out its gains for the month this week as the selling has been in the growth sensitive sectors This index has jumped 10 from its June low as traders anticipate that the US Europe and China will take action to support economic expansion Traders across the region have sold down mining and energy stocks this week as economic reports out of China Japan and Korea have confirmed slowing growth and that confidence among manufacturers particularly in South Korea remained at the lowest level since the GFC Exports across the region are

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  • Chinese Economy | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you boost your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Advisory This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags Asian Markets ASX News australian market wrap chinese economy Commodities eurozone debt crisis US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Traders Green With Anticipation Friday July 20th 2012 Markets have had stellar week as traders chose to buy in anticipation of additional central bank easing across the globe from the US China and Europe European markets continue to hold up and are on track to record a seventh straight week of gains while the US markets have reached 2 month highs Asian markets joined in on the party helped by the Chinese market bouncing off 4 year lows and commodities have put in their best weekly performance since February which is supportive for emerging markets US stock markets bounced again this week as traders sent the S P 500 to 2 month highs after a round of strong corporate earnings this week All three benchmark indexes are up by around 2 for the week and the trading volumes have picked up 5 above the 3 month average The gains have been led by the Materials Energy and Technology sectors while the Financials and the Consumer sectors have weighed Positive investor sentiment was boosted by better than estimated earnings and traders are buying in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will add its monetary stimulus because of the recent disappointing domestic economic data European stock markets have climbed again this week and are on track for a seventh consecutive week of gains Germany gave final approval for the EUR100 billion bailout for the Spanish banks which is desperately needed as the Spanish debt crisis remains in focus as their 10 year cost of funding is

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/tag/chinese-economy/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Eurozone Debt Crisis | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    its international rescue up to two years leaving the door open to potential concessions French President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel will meet with the Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras in Berlin tonight The next ECB meeting will be held on 6 September where it is anticipated that policy makers will deliver their so called plan of action to address the worsening eurozone debt crisis Traders lack the catalyst to continue buying until these meetings are underway Asian stock markets are ending the week on a negative tone Markets turned to risk off after HSBC s preliminary China purchasing managers index Flash PMI for August showed a fall to 47 8 compared with a final reading of 49 3 in July However investors remain hopeful that the slowing economy will prompt the Chinese government to intervene Chinese export growth also plunged to 1 percent in July from a year earlier after an 11 3 percent gain in June while industrial production and lending were below economists forecasts Additionally a report last week showed foreign direct investment in China declined 8 7 percent in July from a year earlier to 7 58 billion the eighth drop in nine months and the smallest inflow since July 2010 The fact that Chinese manufacturing may contract at a faster pace in August according to the Flash PMI data is signaling that more monetary and fiscal stimulus may be needed to secure a second half rebound in economic growth The Asian markets continue to underperform In commodities gold has rallied to a 4 month high as the US dollar fell to a 2 month low and Treasury yields touched the lowest point in more than a week due to speculation the Federal Reserve will add to monetary stimulus Crude oil rose to a three month high extending its rally after rising above long term technical resistance as the futures settled above its 200 day moving average for the first time since mid May Copper continues to bounce off 4 month lows The Australian market has is holding around 3 month highs due to the prospect of coordinated global central bank action but our mining and energy stocks are seeing some profit taking after their 4 week rally following the disappointing Chinese Flash PMI 4300 is the current pivotal level and the 4260 level is the critical support level for next week In our market the defensive sectors have seen further profit taking as traders lock in their dividends Our earnings season has been mixed Companies that disappoint are being punished through their share prices with Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks all easing again this week The industrials materials and energy sectors have also seen some profit taking late in the week The financial sector remains at 12 month highs Traders are hanging out for news in the form of a coordinated effort towards monetary easing but this will not happen until at least mid September Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies Look to pick up value stocks in growth sensitive sectors when they reach your buy levels Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US and locally as the Australian reporting season continues Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4344 and is looking to close the week modestly lower Key levels for the index next week will be 4260 and 4400 with 4300 the key short term pivot level Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you boost your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Trading This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News Commodity prices eurozone debt crisis market wrap Stock Market Analysis us federal reserve US markets Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Investors Left Looking for More Friday July 6th 2012 Markets started the week on a positive note after leaders at the EU summit promised to act to address the eurozone debt crisis As the week progressed the focus shifted to the European Central Bank ECB as investors waited for interest rate cuts to complement the measures taken by EU leaders to shore up banks and bring down borrowing costs for Spain and Italy and looked for news that there will be additional monetary stimulus The next question is whether the ESM EFSF will have enough capital to fund the promises made at the summit US traders had a shortened week and returned from the Independence Day holiday in a sombre mood US stock markets declined overnight ending their biggest 3 session rally for the year Traders were disappointed by the European efforts to address the worsening eurozone debt crisis and they showed caution ahead of the US monthly employment report And there are reasons for this caution If we look back at the last US monthly jobs report US stocks sold off sharply down 10 erasing all of the 2012 gains Now the S P500 has rallied 7 from its recent lows due to speculation that there would be a coordinated global central bank action The action that traders need to see is QE3 quantitative easing in the US and LTRO2 longer term refinancing operation in the EU and the interest rate cuts which are already factored into the markets The Federal Reserve is concerned that growth is still not strong enough to reduce unemployment European stock markets ended lower overnight as traders had already factored in the ECB move on interest rates however the Stoxx Europe 600 index is still on track for its fifth week of gains The ECB lowered its benchmark lending rate to 0 75 as expected and the Bank of England kept its key rate unchanged but increased stimulus measures by boosting the size of its bond buying program by another 50 billion pounds Meanwhile the Chinese central bank has lowered interest rates for the second time in a month This coordinated global central bank action heightened concerns that the global recession is deepening The ECB President Mario Draghi warned that risks to the economic outlook remain tilted to the downside Traders expressed disappointment that the ECB stopped short of signaling additional stimulus on top of rate cuts as the flagging eurozone economic growth needs more of a jump start LTRO2 The debt markets in Spain and Italy saw borrowing costs spike higher overnight Across the region the financials led the declines but energy stocks also sold off on the back of lower crude oil prices Miners and auto stocks provided some support Asian stocks markets have found some support this week after the EU summit but as the week progressed profit takers have stepped in The Chinese market continues to underperform due to concerns about their weakening economy while the Hong Kong market ended higher after a choppy trading session The selling in China came after reports of dismal growth in June lending figures for the top four banks Overnight the Chinese central bank lowered interest rates for the second time in a month in a reaction to its slowing economy In commodities crude oil prices have bounced 11 in the past week and are now above US86 as inventories backed off their 22 year highs Gold prices also jumped after the EU summit and are up above US1 600 again In this week s Analysts Eye we investigate the interrelationship between crude oil and the equities markets and how you can use this relationship to forecast equities prices The Australian market has drifted higher this week and is tentatively holding around the key resistance 4180 level Sentiment has been mixed driven by news from the eurozone and hopes of central bank easing Major market sectors have been tentatively holding on to the support levels of last week As expected the RBA left interest rates on hold this week saying as a result of the sequence of earlier decisions there has been a material easing in monetary policy over the past six months and the Board has judged that with inflation expected to be consistent with the target and growth close to trend but with a more subdued international outlook than was the case a few months ago the stance of monetary policy remained appropriate In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks holding ground as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment The materials and energy sectors saw some buying early in the week but continue to underperform The industrials sector is trying to hold on to support while banks have found support as investors turn to dividend yield David Jones is facing questions over the unsolicited bid it has received last week On the S P ASX 200 the 4120 level has been broken and the index is looking to close at a 5 week high The 4200 level is the next crucial resistance level and 4120 is a pivotal level for next week The next few sessions will determine whether we slip back into the trading range which has prevailed for the past two months Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies The ASX market has bounced 4 from its recent lows and is susceptible to some profit taking at these levels Look to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach your buy levels Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US as the US releases its monthly non farms employment report tonight Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4150 and is testing breakeven levels for the year Key levels for the index next week will be 4050 and 4200 with 4120 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern D2MX Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News Commodity prices eurozone debt crisis interest rates QE3 RBA S P ASX 200 US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Investors Cautious Ahead Of Eventful Week Friday June 15th 2012 Investors are in for an eventful week next week with the Greek elections the G 20 meeting and the US FOMC meeting Traders are unsure which way the central banks will move near term but no doubt the escalating eurozone debt crisis will be high on the agenda US markets are edging to 3 week highs ahead of next week s FOMC meeting while economic data continues to point to a slowing domestic economy In testimony before Congress recently Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stopped short of signaling new stimulus measures and indicated that the EU needs to get its own house in order which disappointed traders However when the Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting it is expected to discuss further economic stimulus efforts to follow after Operation Twist which is due to finish at the end of the month The US dollar index has been easing on anticipation of some additional monetary easing near term and next week will be crucial The eurozone markets kicked off the week with news that Spain had requested up to 100 billion euros US125 billion in loans from the European Union to assist its banks However statements about the deal left several open questions including the exact amount of aid the country will need and how the funds will be distributed The aid needs to be provided by the European Financial Stability Facility EFSF and the European Stability Mechanism As the week progressed traders were not convinced that Spain s agreement to seek bailout funds for its banks will restore confidence in the Spanish economy Spanish and Italian bond yields have surged this week as investors queried the terms of the Spanish bank aid deal Adding to the gloomy sentiment in the eurozone Fitch Ratings downgraded 18 Spanish banks long term credit ratings in a move that was linked to its earlier downgrade of Spain s credit rating Moody s Investors Service has downgraded Spain and Cyprus while Switzerland s central bank said that Credit Suisse Group AG must increase its capital this year due to the eurozone debt crisis Also weighing on traders minds are the upcoming elections in Greece as the outcome may well determine the country s future in the 17 nation eurozone bloc According to polls 75 of Greek citizens want to keep the euro Overnight in Greece the market surged with its biggest rally in more than nine months while their banking sector index rocketed 21 amid speculation that New Democracy the party that backs an agreed bailout for the nation may win the June 17 elections Asian markets are backing off 3 week highs and the Chinese market is trying to find support after the Chinese central bank said it would lower benchmark interest rates on loans and deposits by 25 basis points for the first time since 2008 Chinese data showed exports and imports growing but inflation cooling more rapidly than expected amid an economic slowdown Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank reduced their forecasts for Chinese growth this year citing weakness in exports and in investment dragging on the world s second biggest economy The predictions indicate the weakest Chinese growth since 1999 and compare with a 9 2 expansion last year Credit Suisse cut its estimate to 7 7 from 8 while Deutsche Bank lowered its forecast to 7 9 from 8 2 Credit Suisse suggested that productivity gains and a restoration of the economy s strength will require the Chinese government to break monopolies in banking and utilities open the services industry and deregulate interest rates and the exchange rate and also highlighted that government stimulus could moderate the downside risks to growth The US dollar continued to back off the high levels not seen since mid 2010 which has eased the selling pressure on the commodities which are priced in US dollars Crude oil is hovering around 8 month lows copper is at 7 month lows and silver is hovering around 15 month lows Mining stocks across the globe remain under pressure near term however gold continues to rise and is testing 5 month highs The Australian market has traded sideways this week and is trying to hold around the key 4000 level Sentiment has been mixed driven by news from the eurozone and hopes of central bank easing Major market sectors have been tentatively holding on to the support levels of last week In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with Telstra Realestate REITs and health care stocks holding ground as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment The materials and energy sectors continue to underperform on the back of lower commodity prices but banks are tentatively looking to find some support as investors turn to dividend yield On the S P ASX 200 the 4120 level will now be a crucial resistance level and the 4080 level is again pivotal for next week We have

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  • US Markets | Online Stockmarket Trading Update - Part 2
    pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach your buy levels Last week we said it may be time to start to nibble away at materials and energy stocks which proved fortuitous as they held on to recent support levels Remain attuned to news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US as the US reporting season continues Also monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4182 and is trying to close the week around the 2 month trading range Key levels for the index next week will be 4120 and 4280 with 4200 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern D2MX Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags asian market news australian market news commodities prices ecb EU debt eurozone US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Traders Green With Anticipation Friday July 20th 2012 Markets have had stellar week as traders chose to buy in anticipation of additional central bank easing across the globe from the US China and Europe European markets continue to hold up and are on track to record a seventh straight week of gains while the US markets have reached 2 month highs Asian markets joined in on the party helped by the Chinese market bouncing off 4 year lows and commodities have put in their best weekly performance since February which is supportive for emerging markets US stock markets bounced again this week as traders sent the S P 500 to 2 month highs after a round of strong corporate earnings this week All three benchmark indexes are up by around 2 for the week and the trading volumes have picked up 5 above the 3 month average The gains have been led by the Materials Energy and Technology sectors while the Financials and the Consumer sectors have weighed Positive investor sentiment was boosted by better than estimated earnings and traders are buying in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will add its monetary stimulus because of the recent disappointing domestic economic data European stock markets have climbed again this week and are on track for a seventh consecutive week of gains Germany gave final approval for the EUR100 billion bailout for the Spanish banks which is desperately needed as the Spanish debt crisis remains in focus as their 10 year cost of funding is hovering around 7 which is seen as unsustainable The Spanish market has been under pressure as banks were sold off after Societe Generale cut its earnings estimates for the country s banking sector by 12 on average and said it expects earnings to drop by 47 quarter on quarter Banks in Italy also suffered as Societe Generale estimated Italian banks would see earnings slashed by 75 for the quarter However the northern European markets remain strong with the German market in a confirmed uptrend and markets in London and France are within a whisker of confirmation of their uptrends Asian stock markets have recovered this week with China bouncing off 4 year lows and commodities having a strong week Chinese traders were buoyed by comments from the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao who said China will increase measures to support growth in the world s second largest economy sparking hopes for global monetary easing and stimulus measures to stop the slowdown in economic domestic growth Analysts are expecting the announcement of a reduction in the Chinese reserve requirement ratio RRR the minimum amount of capital that banks have to keep in reserves However the mood was tempered as the International Monetary Fund IMF has cut its forecast for global growth to 3 5 In commodities crude oil prices bounced again above US92 this past week as US inventories backed off again and there is the geopolitical risk to supplies with tensions in the middle east escalating The gold price has drifted down after QE3 was set aside and is trading around US1 580 again Copper prices have moved higher bouncing off their 200 day moving average The Australian market has traded to the top of its 2 month trading range again and if the global central banks act this would be a catalyst for our market to push higher Sentiment has been positive driven by strong earnings from the US and the eurozone as hopes of stimulus resurfaced The 4200 level is the next pivotal resistance level and 4120 is the critical support level for next week In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with banks Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks trading higher as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment The industrials materials and energy sectors are bouncing off key short term support levels The banks have surged and are testing 3 month highs as investors turn to dividend yield We are seeing some buying in the energy and materials sectors but would need to see follow through next week to continue the upward momentum for the market Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies Look to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach your buy levels It may be time to start nibbling away at materials and energy stocks if they can hold recent support levels Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US as the US reporting season continues Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4210 and is trying to close the week above the 2 month trading range Key levels for the index next week will be 4120 and 4280 with 4200 the key short term pivot level We regularly update you on trade recommendations so for Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research By Michael Hevern D2MX Trading Desk This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research Tags asx 200 ASX News chinese economy Commodities european banks QE3 US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Chinese GDP Inline Hopes For Soft Landing Friday July 13th 2012 Markets have had a choppy week as traders have plenty to be concerned about European markets have held up surprising well while the US markets have drifted modestly lower Asian markets have underperformed across the board as global growth continues to slow and QE3 has been set aside for now US stock markets fell overnight and are down for a sixth consecutive day as traders fretted over corporate earnings and concerns about slowing global economic growth The three benchmark indexes all finished down as investors digested the minutes of the FOMC meeting which did not give any firm indication of when QE3 will be forthcoming In the broader market the mining financials and technology sectors have led the declines Stocks have been drifting lower as the indexes have tentatively bounced off their 200 day moving average but still remain below their 50 day moving average which is a cause for concern near term S P 500 earnings are projected to decrease 1 8 in the second quarter the first drop in almost three years according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Bank of America strategists have reduced earnings forecasts for S P 500 companies by 1 4 for this year and next year Even Warren Buffett the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway has ratcheted back his outlook commenting that economic growth in the US is slowing even as the housing market shows signs of rebounding but US unemployment has remained stubbornly above 8 for the past three years Investors are going to have to wait until the next financial leaders meeting at Jackson Hole in late August for any update on QE3 In Europe stock markets have suffered their biggest declines in over two weeks Investors showed their concern over the slowing global growth and hopes faded that the Federal Reserve would soon act to bolster the US economy as QE3 was set aside by the Federal Reserve The three benchmark indexes are all down from their highs of the week The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is down 0 6 for the week and at this rate the index is set to record its first negative weekly performance in the past six weeks However trader sentiment has been buoyed this week by news that European finance ministers had reached a deal to grant the Spanish banking sector access to EUR30 billion in aid by the end of the month as the first tranche of the bailout for the Spanish banks They also announced that Spain will be given extra time to hit a target for reducing its budget deficit This move is seen as a major step towards the formation of a eurozone banking union which would have the goal of eventually using the euro area bailout fund to recapitalise banks directly instead of saddling the government with the debts The Spanish and Italian 10 year government bond yields have fallen sharply Across the region the mining sector has led the falls this week with a number of broking houses ratcheting down earnings forecasts and cutting ratings Asian stock markets have pulled back this week ahead of the Chinese GDP report and as jobs data from Australia disappointed Across the region we have seen broad based selling with mining and energy sectors leading the declines but financials and cyclicals have also weighed In Japan the Nikkei Stock Index fell for six days extending its longest losing streak since April In Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index slumped nearly 4 for the week and in China the Shanghai Composite Index is down over 2 Chinese GDP data has been released and came in line with expectations of 7 6 consensus was for 7 7 confirming that Chinese economic growth has fallen below 8 for the first time since 2009 In commodities crude oil prices bounced another 2 in the past week and are now above US86 again as US inventories backed off their 22 year highs Gold prices drifted down after QE3 was set aside and gold is trading around US1 565 again Copper prices are hovering around their 200 day moving average The Australian market has drifted back into its 2 month trading range this week and is tentatively holding around the key pivot level of 4080 Sentiment has been mixed driven by news from the US and the eurozone as hopes of US central bank easing QE3 faded Major market sectors have been missed over the past week The 4200 level is the next crucial resistance level and 4120 is a pivotal level for next week The next few sessions will determine whether we will see some buying in the energy and materials sectors which have been hammered this week In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks trading higher as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment The materials and energy sectors broke down to below their 2011 lows The industrials sector also broke support while banks have found support and are testing new monthly highs as investors turn to dividend yield The Australian jobs report showed employers cut payrolls by 27 000 workers in June and the unemployment rate increased to 5 3 which disappointed investors Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies Look to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach your buy levels Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US as the US reporting season continues Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4095 and is testing breakeven levels for the year Key levels for the index next week will be 4050 and 4200 with 4120 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern D2MX Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News australian stock market chinese GDP Commodity prices eurozone debt market wrap QE3 S P 500 US markets Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Investors Left Looking for More Friday July 6th 2012 Markets started the week on a positive note after leaders at the EU summit promised to act to address the eurozone debt crisis As the week progressed the focus shifted to the European Central Bank ECB as investors waited for interest rate cuts to complement the measures taken by EU leaders to shore up banks and bring down borrowing costs for Spain and Italy and looked for news that there will be additional monetary stimulus The next question is whether the ESM EFSF will have enough capital to fund the promises made at the summit US traders had a shortened week and returned from the Independence Day holiday in a sombre mood US stock markets declined overnight ending their biggest 3 session rally for the year Traders were disappointed by the European efforts to address the worsening eurozone debt crisis and they showed caution ahead of the US monthly employment report And there are reasons for this caution If we look back at the last US monthly jobs report US stocks sold off sharply down 10 erasing all of the 2012 gains Now the S P500 has rallied 7 from its recent lows due to speculation that there would be a coordinated global central bank action The action that traders need to see is QE3 quantitative easing in the US and LTRO2 longer term refinancing operation in the EU and the interest rate cuts which are already factored into the markets The Federal Reserve is concerned that growth is still not strong enough to reduce unemployment European stock markets ended lower overnight as traders had already factored in the ECB move on interest rates however the Stoxx Europe 600 index is still on track for its fifth week of gains The ECB lowered its benchmark lending rate to 0 75 as expected and the Bank of England kept its key rate unchanged but increased stimulus measures by boosting the size of its bond buying program by another 50 billion pounds Meanwhile the Chinese central bank has lowered interest rates for the second time in a month This coordinated global central bank action heightened concerns that the global recession is deepening The ECB President Mario Draghi warned that risks to the economic outlook remain tilted to the downside Traders expressed disappointment that the ECB stopped short of signaling additional stimulus on top of rate cuts as the flagging eurozone economic growth needs more of a jump start LTRO2 The debt markets in Spain and Italy saw borrowing costs spike higher overnight Across the region the financials led the declines but energy stocks also sold off on the back of lower crude oil prices Miners and auto stocks provided some support Asian stocks markets have found some support this week after the EU summit but as the week progressed profit takers have stepped in The Chinese market continues to underperform due to concerns about their weakening economy while the Hong Kong market ended higher after a choppy trading session The selling in China came after reports of dismal growth in June lending figures for the top four banks Overnight the Chinese central bank lowered interest rates for the second time in a month in a reaction to its slowing economy In commodities crude oil prices have bounced 11 in the past week and are now above US86 as inventories backed off their 22 year highs Gold prices also jumped after the EU summit and are up above US1 600 again In this week s Analysts Eye we investigate the interrelationship between crude oil and the equities markets and how you can use this relationship to forecast equities prices The Australian market has drifted higher this week and is tentatively holding around the key resistance 4180 level Sentiment has been mixed driven by news from the eurozone and hopes of central bank easing Major market sectors have been tentatively holding on to the support levels of last week As expected the RBA left interest rates on hold this week saying as a result of the sequence of earlier decisions there has been a material easing in monetary policy over the past six months and the Board has judged that with inflation expected to be consistent with the target and growth close to trend but with a more subdued international outlook than was the case a few months ago the stance of monetary policy remained appropriate In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks holding ground as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment The materials and energy sectors saw some buying early in the week but continue to underperform The industrials sector is trying to hold on to support while banks have found support as investors turn to dividend yield David Jones is facing questions over the unsolicited bid it has received last week On the S P ASX 200 the 4120 level has been broken and the index is looking to close at a 5 week high The 4200 level is the next crucial resistance level and 4120 is a pivotal level for next week The next few sessions will determine whether we slip back into the trading range which has prevailed for the past two months Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies The ASX market has bounced 4 from its recent lows and is susceptible to some profit taking at these levels Look to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach your buy levels Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US as the US releases its monthly non farms employment report tonight Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4150 and is testing breakeven levels for the year Key levels for the index next week will be 4050 and 4200 with 4120 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern D2MX Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News Commodity prices eurozone debt crisis interest rates QE3 RBA S P ASX 200 US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap EU Action But Still Plenty Of Headwinds For Investors Friday June 29th 2012 Investors have been kept on edge this week ahead of the European Union summit which is currently underway Traders appear to have had limited expectations over the outcome of this summit but the EU leaders have today announced that they will make EUR120 billion available for a eurozone growth plan US markets are bouncing between the 50 and 200 day moving averages and as long the indexes hold below the 50 day moving average the bears remain in control US stocks have been under selling pressure this week as traders have been unwilling to commit ahead of the EU leaders summit Mining stocks continue to experience sustained selling pressure as commodity prices remain at multi month lows Overnight stocks broadly sold off after the US Supreme Court surprised by saying Congress was acting within its powers under the Constitution when it required most Americans to carry health insurance or pay a penalty This was a bonus for hospital providers but managed care providers slumped as the law keeps in place requirements for insurers to cover people regardless of health history Retail stocks are likely to sell off tonight in the wake of Nike dropping heavily after disappointing earnings citing slowing Chinese demand Crude oil prices are still below US80 with inventories around 22 year highs and gold prices are down at US1 555 after disappointment over no QE3 being announced European stock markets continued to retreat this week with the three major indexes from Germany France and the UK all in multi week falling channel formations The bears remain firmly in control and a lot is riding on the outcome of the EU summit where the leaders are attempting to formulate a 10 year road map for the eurozone Some of the issues include common banking supervision deposit insurance and a criteria based and phased move toward joint debt issuance and also the EU imposition of upper limits on annual budgets and debt levels for the 17 eurozone nations The German Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated Germany s opposition to the issuance of joint euro area bonds as a way of lowering Spanish borrowing costs saying sovereign governments must be held accountable Across the eurozone the financials have led the declines as Spanish bond yields surged above 7 again and the German unemployment rate rose more than forecast climbing in June for the fourth month this year As the EU summit in Brussels progresses there has been some optimism though that the leaders were making progress in their discussions over the possibility of integrating budgets and banking systems Expectations for the EU summit have been low as previous gatherings have failed to produce any significant breakthroughs however the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has reportedly said that Germany could agree to shared liability on debt if eurozone countries agree to give up sovereignty over their budgets marking a softening in Germany s stance on the issue And just hours ago the EU leaders reported that they will make EUR120 billion available for a eurozone growth plan Asian stocks markets remained under selling pressure this week as any gains quickly eroded as traders awaited the outcome of the EU summit meeting The Chinese market has given back all its gains for the year due to concerns over a slowing economy The Chinese market has plunged 7 4 in June the second worst performance for the Asian region as lower than estimated industrial output and retail sales data has outweighed the Chinese central bank s first interest rate cut since 2008 The Chinese economy has grown at its slowest pace in almost three years in the first quarter This poor performance of the Chinese market is weighing on the ASX particularly the mining stocks The Australian market has traded sideways again this week and is tentatively holding around the key 4000 level Sentiment has been mixed driven by news from the eurozone and hopes of central bank easing Major market sectors have been tentatively holding on to the support levels of last week In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks holding ground as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment The materials and energy sectors continue to underperform and have broken another key support level on the back of lower commodity prices The industrials sector has broken down but banks are tentatively looking to find some support as investors turn to dividend yield Providing some support this week have been News Corp which has confirmed it will split its core businesses in a move to unlock value and the retail sector which received a boost when David Jones announced it has received an unsolicited bid On the S P ASX 200 the 4120 level will now be a crucial resistance level and the 4080 level is again a pivotal level for next week We have not seen capitulation by the bulls as yet which could come about if the current weekly support levels are breached at 3985 in which case we could see the 3950 and then the 3850 levels tested Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies With the sustained selling we have endured over the past few weeks we remained cautious but we are also looking to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach our buy levels and will turn to growth stocks if we see a change to Risk On sentiment with some action from the EU Leaders summit Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the EU leaders summit China and the US as the US markets test their 50 day moving average resistance levels Monitor the performance of Italy Spain China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices It is a busy week for the US next week with the July 4th holiday and the latest non farms employment report due out Friday and then there will be a reaction to the outcome s of the EU summit The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4034 and is testing breakeven levels for the year Key levels for the index next week will be 3930 and 4130 with 4080 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern DMX Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News Commodities David Jones eu summit eurozone markets market wrap Newscorp S P 500 Stock Market Analysis US markets Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Investors Cautious Ahead Of Eventful Week Friday June 15th 2012 Investors are in for an eventful week next week with the Greek elections the G 20 meeting and the US FOMC meeting Traders are unsure which way the central banks will move near term but no doubt the escalating eurozone debt crisis will be high on the agenda US markets are edging to 3 week highs ahead of next week s FOMC meeting while economic data continues to point to a slowing domestic economy In testimony before Congress recently Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stopped short of signaling new stimulus measures and indicated that the EU needs to get its own house in order which disappointed traders However when the Federal Reserve holds its FOMC meeting it is expected to discuss further economic stimulus efforts to follow after Operation Twist which is due to finish at the end of the month The US dollar index has been easing on anticipation of some additional monetary easing near term and next week will be crucial The eurozone markets kicked off the week with news that Spain had requested up to 100 billion euros US125 billion in loans from the European Union to assist its banks However statements about the deal left several open questions including the exact amount of aid the country will need and how the funds will be distributed The aid needs to be provided by the European Financial Stability Facility EFSF and the European Stability Mechanism As the week progressed traders were not convinced that Spain s agreement to seek bailout funds for its banks will restore confidence in the Spanish economy Spanish and Italian bond yields have surged this week as investors queried the terms of the Spanish bank aid deal Adding to the gloomy sentiment in the eurozone Fitch Ratings downgraded 18 Spanish banks long term credit ratings in a move that was linked to its earlier downgrade of Spain s credit rating Moody s Investors Service has downgraded Spain and Cyprus while Switzerland s central bank said that Credit Suisse Group AG must increase its capital this year due to the eurozone debt crisis Also weighing on traders minds are the upcoming elections in Greece as the outcome may well determine the country s future in the 17 nation eurozone bloc According to polls 75 of Greek citizens want to keep the euro Overnight in Greece the market surged with its biggest rally in more than nine months while their banking sector index rocketed 21 amid speculation that New Democracy the party that backs an agreed bailout for the nation may win the June 17 elections Asian markets are backing off 3 week highs and the Chinese market is trying to find support after the Chinese central bank said it would lower benchmark interest rates on loans and deposits by 25 basis points for the first time since 2008 Chinese data showed exports and imports growing but inflation cooling more rapidly than expected amid an economic slowdown Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank reduced their forecasts for Chinese growth this year citing weakness in exports and in investment dragging on the world s second biggest economy The predictions indicate the weakest Chinese growth since 1999 and compare with a 9 2 expansion last year Credit Suisse cut its estimate to 7 7 from 8 while Deutsche Bank lowered its forecast to 7 9 from 8 2 Credit Suisse suggested that productivity gains and a restoration of the economy s strength will require the Chinese government to break monopolies in banking and utilities open the services industry and deregulate interest rates and the exchange rate and also highlighted that government stimulus could moderate the downside risks to growth The US dollar continued to back off the high levels not seen since mid 2010 which has eased the selling pressure on the commodities which are priced

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/tag/us-markets/page/2/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Markets Continue Their Rebound | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    helped by a report from Goldman Sachs indicating that they expect the Japanese market to surge around 20 percent in 2013 due to compelling valuations and a possible change in political leadership in the upcoming elections Chinese stocks have fallen yet again dragging the benchmark index to lows not seen since 2008 as trading activity plummeted In China the Shanghai Composite Index continues to underperform falling for a fourth session and once again closing below the key psychological level of 2 000 These falls have come despite news that Chinese industrial profits accelerated and last week s preliminary Chinese PMI figures indicated that growth in the world s second largest economy is rebounding after slowing for the past seven quarters Chinese traders are continuing to show caution and want to see some added stimulus measures announced in China before committing funds to the equities market On a positive note it does set up stocks for a considerable bounce next year if GDP improves easing is announced and the US fiscal cliff is resolved Commodities have again held their ground this week with crude oil bouncing higher off 3 month lows while copper found support after experiencing its longest slump in 8 weeks and gold found resistance around the US1 750 level The Australian market has had another strong week and looks set to test recent highs in the near term The market shot through the 4450 level is now hovering above the 4500 level and looks to be setting up for a test of the highs of mid October Our market has rebounded on the back positive sentiment around the globe and the Aussie banks have rebounded off short term support in the chase for yield as the RBA talks of further interest rate cuts next week Telstra has hit key levels not seen since mid 2008 and health care stocks like Ramsay and CSL are trading at all time highs Protection is still relatively cheap at the moment and investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to put their money to work while reducing their risk by using options and warrants strategies Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China easing and the US fiscal cliff Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs which have been easing again this week and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4510 having smashed through the 50 retracement level of its recent falls Key levels for the index next week will be 4430 and 4550 with 4470 the key short term pivot level Traders are being cautiously optimistic on the back of positive news flow regarding the resolution of the US fiscal cliff the resolution of the Greek debt crisis and as they digest the key leadership changes in the US and China Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/2012/11/30/markets-continue-their-rebound/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Markets Fall As Investor Optimism Over Stimulus Measures Fades | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    index sold down to the 2000 level as traders vented their concern This has prompted the PBOC to act on stimulus as Chinese stocks have now risen for the first time in three days after reports that the People s Bank of China added a record net 365 billion yuan US56 billion to the financial system this week a form of quantitative easing as cash demand rises before their week long holiday In commodities crude oil prices fell below US90 this week the lowest level in two months but crude oil appears to be rebounding in the short term at least On the flip side gold prices at around US1 750 are on track to record their best quarterly gain in over two years currently up 10 since the start of July due to central banks boosting stimulus measures to support global growth Copper remains near 4 month highs and is on track to finish up around 7 for the quarter The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4380 and is looking to close the week lower Key levels for the index next week will be 4330 and 4450 with 4360 the key short term pivot level Traders are squaring off their accounts for the end of quarter and now need to decide if all this stimulus will be enough to boost global growth The mining and mine services sectors have been in focus this week as commodity prices have continued to pull back and data showed slowing global growth In our market the defensive sectors supported the market this week as investors took profits on their growth sensitive stocks near term Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks saw buying in to the end of quarter The financials and materials sectors have resumed their upward path The financial and info tech sectors held around 12 month highs The materials industrials and energy sectors eased over the week as trader optimism over the central bank stimulus faded Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China Japan and the US Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China Japan tensions and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices Protection is very cheap at the moment and investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to put their money to work while reducing risk by using options and warrants strategies Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you improve your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Advisory This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/2012/09/28/weekly-market-wrapmarkets-fall/ (2013-02-02)
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