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  • Weekly Market Wrap: Traders Take Some Profits After Stellar Week | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    pushing to new monthly highs on the back of news that Chinese gross domestic product GDP expanded 7 4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier as expected The government also reported data for industrial production retail sales and fixed asset investment which all accelerated Chinese GDP rose 2 2 percent from the previous period which is a four quarter high Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the Chinese economic situation last quarter was relatively good signaling that the nation s slowdown is bottoming The Chinese Communist Party will nominate new leaders at its 18th congress starting 8 November in its once a decade leadership change Traders are expected to remain cautious up till that time In commodities crude oil prices have recovered from weakness earlier in the week and are looking to close the week around US92 again The gold price continued to back off 11 month highs and is now trading around the US1 750 level as traders price in the global quantitative easing Copper prices bounced off their 50 day average price The Australian market surged on open yesterday and the ASX is investigating trading irregularities in the opening auction process for a number of stocks including ANZ CBA and Brambles The market is hovering around the 4550 level as we saw short covering above the key 4520 level The Australian market has jumped higher closing at its highest level in 15 months as traders cheered the news out of China that their economy may be bottoming around current levels and bet that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will follow the last interest rate cut with another reduction in November bringing the cash rate to 3 This would be a 50 year low and the lowest rate since back at the height of the GFC In our market all sectors are looking to finish the week in the green as investors took their cue from overseas investors and as traders have been coming to terms with their optimism over the central bank stimulus Protection is still cheap at the moment and investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to put their money to work while reducing their risk by using options and warrants strategies Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China Japan and the US Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs which are currently at six month lows China Japan tensions and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4555 and is looking to close the week at a 15 month high Key levels for the index next week will be 4450 and 4590 with 4500 the key short term pivot level Traders are still buying on the back of the global central bank stimulus in anticipation that it will be enough to boost global growth In this last week s Analyst s

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/2012/10/19/weekly-market-wrap-traders-take-some-profits-after-stellar-week/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Boosting Dividend Yield Using Instalment MINI Warrants | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    be paid Terminology The Instalment MINI warrant is made up of three parameters Instalment Value the price at which it trades Final Instalment Price the loan amount Maturity Date the date on which the Instalment ceases to trade or is rolled Case Study Sam wants to trade ANZ for the dividend and franking credits and is looking to boost her returns She planned to trade ANZ on 4 October 2012 when ANZ was trading at 25 20 and Instalment Warrant ANZJOA is trading at 13 84 ANZ is expected to go Ex div 0 82 on 10 November 2012 Note This case study is general in nature and does not incorporate any specific tax or personal circumstances of the investor Investors should not rely on the information and should obtain specific advice before investing in this product Chart ANZ Trade produced in d2mxIRESS platform The Instalment MINI Warrant and Share Trade Comparisons The trade needs to be held for 45 days to qualify for the franking credits and the calculations are done assuming no capital gain that is assuming ANZ pulls back to the original buying price of 25 20 then the trade calculations are as follows assuming traders tax rate is 46 5 Funding Cost Calculation In order to calculate the amount you are paying in funding costs for holding ANZJOA over the 45 days assumed holding period use the following calculation Funding Cost Loan Amount STRIKE Price Entry date Funding Rate Holding Period 365 11 36 8 5 45 365 0 12 So if ANZ pulls back to its original purchase price after the 45 day holding period and the position is closed there would be no capital gain on the holding but Sam would get to collect 3 254 plus 1 389 worth of franking credits for a grossed up yield of 4 6 in 45 days if she traded ANZ using shares However if Sam traded the ANZJOA instalment MINI warrant then she would collect 5 925 in dividends plus 2 529 worth of franking credits for a grossed up yield of 8 5 in 45 days if she traded ANZ using instalment MINI warrant note if ANZ was trading at 25 20 again there would be a funding cost of 0 12 cents per share part of which would be tax deductible Of course if ANZ is trading above the purchase price after the 45 day holding period then there would be an additional capital gain and conversely a capital loss if ANZ was trading below 25 20 The Trade If you want to take advantage of the bank dividend season then the Instalment MINI Warrants are an excellent way to boost your yield Contact us at D2MX on 1300 610 024 and we can help you trade using Instalment MINI Warrants to boost your returns Each Instalment Warrant has a PDS document which details all the features of the specific warrant For more trade ideas and recommendations sign up for a free trial of

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/2012/10/12/boosting-dividend-yield-using-instalment-mini-warrants-part-3-of-warrant-trading-for-all-types-of-market-environments/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Eurozone News | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    to record its biggest 3 day gain since March Traders cheered comments from the Japanese economic minister who called for stronger stimulus from the Bank of Japan which meets at the end of the month The Chinese market is pushing to new monthly highs on the back of news that Chinese gross domestic product GDP expanded 7 4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier as expected The government also reported data for industrial production retail sales and fixed asset investment which all accelerated Chinese GDP rose 2 2 percent from the previous period which is a four quarter high Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the Chinese economic situation last quarter was relatively good signaling that the nation s slowdown is bottoming The Chinese Communist Party will nominate new leaders at its 18th congress starting 8 November in its once a decade leadership change Traders are expected to remain cautious up till that time In commodities crude oil prices have recovered from weakness earlier in the week and are looking to close the week around US92 again The gold price continued to back off 11 month highs and is now trading around the US1 750 level as traders price in the global quantitative easing Copper prices bounced off their 50 day average price The Australian market surged on open yesterday and the ASX is investigating trading irregularities in the opening auction process for a number of stocks including ANZ CBA and Brambles The market is hovering around the 4550 level as we saw short covering above the key 4520 level The Australian market has jumped higher closing at its highest level in 15 months as traders cheered the news out of China that their economy may be bottoming around current levels and bet that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will follow the last interest rate cut with another reduction in November bringing the cash rate to 3 This would be a 50 year low and the lowest rate since back at the height of the GFC In our market all sectors are looking to finish the week in the green as investors took their cue from overseas investors and as traders have been coming to terms with their optimism over the central bank stimulus Protection is still cheap at the moment and investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to put their money to work while reducing their risk by using options and warrants strategies Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China Japan and the US Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs which are currently at six month lows China Japan tensions and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4555 and is looking to close the week at a 15 month high Key levels for the index next week will be 4450 and 4590

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/tag/eurozone-news/ (2013-02-02)
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  • S&P500 | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    the US Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4411 and is looking to close the week higher again Key levels for the index next week will be 4350 and 4450 with 4380 the key short term pivot level Traders have received the news they wanted from the ECB and the US Fed QE3 and now the BoJ in Japan and are still watching for some response from the Chinese central bank Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you improve your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Advisory This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags asx market news Commodity prices eurozone markets S P500 Stock Market Analysis us market news Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Markets Jump as Central Banks Deliver Friday September 14th 2012 It was the ECB that delivered last week after ECB President Mario Draghi unveiled an unlimited bond buying program but this week traders have been hanging out for an announcement from the US Federal Reserve and Ben Bernanke has delivered with a third round of quantitative easing In Asia however we are seeing mixed messages from the Chinese government regarding the need for further stimulus near term US stock markets surged overnight sending the S P 500 Index to its highest level since 2007 and the Nasdaq to its highest since late 2000 The Dow Jones surged with all 30 stocks closing higher and in the broader market all 10 groups in the S P 500 rose over 1 percent led by financial and commodity related sectors The S P 500 is only around 7 percent from reaching its record closing high from 2007 after rallying 16 percent this year Investors hit the BUY button after the Fed said it will expand its holdings of long term securities with open ended purchases of 40 billion of mortgage debt a month as it seeks to boost growth and reduce unemployment The Fed said it is in for the long haul and will continue its purchases of mortgage backed securities and undertake other asset purchases if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially The Fed also extended its commitment to zero interest rates from 2014 into mid 2015 Operation Twist the program to swap US667 billion of short term debt with longer term securities to lengthen the average maturity of its holdings will also continue Fed officials said economic growth will improve faster than they had earlier projected as they upgraded their 2013 and 2014 estimates for gross domestic product The Fed now expects the job market outlook to improve more swiftly by 2014 with unemployment forecast to fall to between 6 7 and 7 3 percent down from earlier projections of 7 to 7 7 percent in their June projections In 2015 unemployment is expected to fall to between 6 and 6 8 percent The Fed also now expects growth will improve to 3 percent next year and up to 3 8 percent in 2014 up from earlier estimates of 2 8 and 3 5 percent European stock markets have pushed to 14 month highs this week but eased overnight as investors awaited a Federal Reserve decision on further stimulus measures The three benchmark indexes traded higher this week with the London FTSE recovering to end higher while the French and German markets backed off 14 month highs The UK FTSE index climbed to a 3 week high ahead of the US Federal Reserve s policy statement in anticipation of another round of bond buying to spur economic growth Traders bought financials early in the week as they correctly anticipated that the German Federal Constitutional Court would not halt the country s participation in the EUR500 billion European Stability Mechanism ESM the eurozone s permanent bailout fund Germany is contributing 27 of the monies to this ESM bailout fund Growth sensitive stocks have had a good run as well after last week s announcement from the ECB that it will target government bonds with maturities of one to three years including longer dated debt that has a residual maturity of that length The key to this program is that the purchases will be fully sterilised meaning that the overall impact on the money supply will be neutral and the ECB will not have seniority European traders will get to react to the Fed announcement tonight Asian stock markets have been on the rise this week in reaction to the ECB confirming its bond buying program and in anticipation that the US Federal Reserve would announce another round of asset purchases at the end of its FOMC policy meeting The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has recorded its longest winning streak since July as traders bet that the US and Chinese central banks will act to kick up growth in the world s two largest economies The US Fed has delivered however traders are getting mixed messages about the prospect of central bank easing in China as the Xinhua News Agency reported an official saying that massive stimulus measures would be detrimental to sustainable domestic economic growth This conflicts with a recent statement from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao speaking at the World Economic Forum where he signaled that there is room for more fiscal and monetary policy to support growth saying China still has ample strength to meet its economic goals for the year Commodity related stocks have traded higher as copper and crude oil trade at 4 month highs and gold prices have risen to their highest level since February Traders will be reacting to the Fed s announcement near term which should push stock prices higher The Australian market is looking to push towards the 4450 level due to fact that there has been a coordinated global central bank action to spur on growth The mining and mine services sector has recovered this week as commodity prices continued higher in reaction to the central bank announcements In our market the defensive sectors have seen profit taking as investors switch into growth sensitive sectors Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks have eased back after recently making new yearly highs The utilities financials and energy sectors have resumed their upward path The financial sector is back at 12 month highs The industrials and materials sectors bounced as we are seeing rotation into these sectors in reaction to the central bank actions Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to put their money to work while reducing their risk by using options and warrants strategies Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4383 and is looking to close the week strongly higher Key levels for the index next week will be 4350 and 4450 with 4380 the key short term pivot level Traders have received the news they wanted from the ECB and the US Fed QE3 and are now watching for some response from the Chinese central bank Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you improve your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Advisory This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News Commodity prices QE3 S P500 Stock Market Analysis us federal reserve Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Analyst s Eye Intermarket Analysis Window Into The Markets Friday July 6th 2012 Intermarket analysis is a branch of technical analysis that examines the correlations between a number of related markets which may include major asset classes such as stocks bonds commodities and currencies It can be thought of as a type of instantaneous fundamental analysis that gives you an overall bias and direction for the markets you are studying Equities markets have been difficult this year and intermarket analysis can give you an insight into what you can expect in the near term In intermarket analysis you look for times when the underlying relationships are diverging for warning of a turnaround or when they are moving in the same direction for a confirmation of the underlying trends John Murphy s first book Intermarket Technical Analysis provides an excellent in depth study of the correlations between related markets Crude Oil As a Barometer On the Economy Crude oil prices are a good indication of the state of the underlying economy Higher prices cannot be supported for any length of time unless the underlying economy is exhibiting strength Crude oil is one of a raft of commodities that has suffered severe selling in the past few months down over 30 since its mid March peak At the end of June it hit 8 month lows but has now rebounded a whopping 13 and is at a 1 month high There are a number of reasons for the recent price surge including speculation that central banks from Europe to China will ease monetary policy to spur economic growth while sanctions against Iran may curb supply The European Central Bank has this week cut interest rates to 0 75 and the Chinese central bank has now cut interest rates for a second time in a month Crude oil prices provide an insight into the underlying strength of the economy and can be used in intermarket analysis to determine what to expect in the equities market Intermarket Analysis Crude Oil Versus S P500 One way to anticipate near term activity in the equities markets is to examine the S P 500 equities index and compare it against the movements and trend in the crude oil market The interrelationship between equities and crude oil comes from the fact that energy costs make up a significant proportion of the costs of doing business for the corporate world When crude oil prices are high energy costs are seen as a drag on corporate activity and a tax on doing business Crude oil prices also impact on consumer spending which equates to over 65 of growth in the US economy 2009 2010 Crude Oil Versus S P500 Our analysis starts back in 2009 S P500 equities and crude oil prices suffered a severe down trend in the aftermath of the GFC At the end of 2008 crude oil prices based and a new uptrend began in March 2009 as shown in Chart 1 below The crude oil price led the rebound in the S P500 equities market and the divergence provided a fantastic setup for the bull run in S P500 equities which began in April 2009 The uptrends in crude oil and the S P500 equities market continued through until early 2010 when crude oil again gave a great divergence signal that there was impending weakness in the S P500 equities market The equities market sold off in April 2010 but the crude oil market was giving warning signals of weakness in the overall economy from earlier in 2010 as crude oil prices failed to make new highs in direct contrast to the equity prices S P500 equities remained in a downtrend until 4Q 2010 when again we saw divergence between crude oil and equity prices as crude oil began to make new highs and the equities prices continued lower 2010 2012 Crude Oil Versus S P500 By October 2010 crude oil started its uptrend and the S P500 equities soon followed as seen in Chart 2 below The uptrends in crude oil and S P500 equities remained intact until April 2011 when divergence reappeared as crude oil gave a warning of weakness and started to make lower lows It took another three months for the S P500 equities market to crash which began in May 2011 and we saw follow through in July 2011 By the 4Q 2011 crude oil prices began to find a bottom and again there was a divergence signal which was an early sign that the underlying economy was strengthening and supporting higher oil prices The uptrends in crude oil and S P500 equities remained intact again until April 2012 and once again divergence appeared as crude oil gave an early warning of weakness with lower lows Again it took a couple of months for the S P500 equities market to crash which it did in April 2012 The Trade Crude oil has been a leading indicator for the S P500 equities markets for the past four years and any divergence should be heeded as an early warning signal for equities prices Currently there is still a divergence between the crude oil and S P500 equities prices Chart 2 illustrates that crude oil prices are confirming underlying weakness in the overall economy but equities prices are still ticking higher defying gravity perhaps We would need to see crude oil have consecutive weekly closes above US92 to confirm a change in trend for crude oil Unless this occurs in the near term there is underlying weakness in the economy which will translate to lower equity prices This outcome may be short circuited by a coordinated global central bank intervention towards quantitative easing but until that occurs be prepared for weaker equity prices in the near term Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Trading This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags Crude Oil divergence intermarket analysis investing market analysis S P500 technical analysis Posted in Stock Market Analysis Trading Strategies No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Testing Time for Investors Friday June 8th 2012 Investor nerves have been tested this week as volatility increased Traders in the northern hemisphere are gearing up for summer and global growth is declining for a third straight year The bears remain in control of the markets although stocks did tick up on hopes that the central banks will make a move towards quantitative easing These expectations are proving to be premature as the ECB and EU leaders are not likely make a move until after a government is formed by the Greek elections on 17 June In the US the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stopped short of signaling new stimulus measures in testimony before Congress US markets are again testing their 200 day moving averages which may end up acting as resistance near term Economic data continues to point to slowing economic growth and the monthly jobs data showed unemployment remains stubbornly high at 8 1 In the eurozone the Greek and Spanish markets were pummeled on debt contagion concerns and even the German market sank lower due to worry about growth in the region The UK market had a shortened trading week Stocks did spike as investors were optimistic that the European Stability Mechanism could inject capital directly into eurozone banks which would have the advantage of not loading the country debt levels The ECB left interest rates at 1 but said growth remains weak and the economic outlook in the eurozone is subject to increased downside risks leaving the door open for a rate cut in July Asian markets are testing multi year lows and at this time are bouncing helped by news overnight that the Chinese central bank said it would lower benchmark interest rates on loans and deposits by 25 basis points There was a flight to safety but the US dollar backed off the high levels not seen since mid 2010 which is putting pressure on commodities which are priced in US dollars Crude oil is at 6 month lows copper is at 4 month lows gold had a reprieve but is again heading to 10 month lows again while silver is hovering around 15 month lows This is putting pressure on the mining stocks across the globe even despite the news overnight of an interest rate cut in China The Australian market has been volatile this week and is trying to hold around the key 4080 level Sentiment has been mixed driven by news from the eurozone and hopes of central bank easing Major market sectors have been tentatively holding on to the support levels of last week In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with Telstra real estate REITs and health care stocks holding ground as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment The materials sector continues to underperform on the back of lower commodity prices but banks found some support as investors turn to dividend yield The Aussie market has been trying to find some support again this week at a level established back in November around 4080 On the S P ASX 200 the 4150 level will now be a crucial resistance level and 4080 is again a pivotal level for next week We have not seen capitulation by the bulls as yet which could come about if the current weekly support levels are breached in which case we could see the 3950 and then the 3850 levels tested Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies With the sustained selling we have endured over the past few weeks we are looking to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach our buy levels In this week s Analyst s Eye we discuss a Trading Plan For June and the D2MX Financial Advisory team can help you trade the themes discussed in this article Call me on 1300 610 024 for further information Options remain an excellent form of insurance and are an excellent instrument for speculation Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone now that China cut interest rates in its move towards policy easing and the US as the US markets trade around their 200 day moving averages Monitor the performance of Greece Spain China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4061 and is testing breakeven levels for the year Key levels for the index next week will be 3950 and 4180 with 4080 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern DMX Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX australian market news bear market chinese interest rate Commodity prices eurozone debt market wrap S P500 US markets Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Where To Now For the Markets A Trading Plan For June Friday June 8th 2012 Traders have had a torrid time in the past month with global markets destroying 4 5 trillion dollars worth of equity value in that time In the article on Profiting With The Bears we highlighted the cyclical nature of the stock market and how the Aussie market typically pulls back in May and has declined between 14 and19 around this time in the past few years Well we have witnessed the first leg of this pullback with the ASX down 9 5 since its April peak We have had a volatile start to trading in June this year We began the month with severe selling but in recent days we have seen a relief rally as traders begin to hunt for some bargains on the hope that we may see a coordinated move by central banks towards quantitative easing Trading in June June is typically a tough month for Australian investors and this year will likely see this theme recurring Some of the reasons for this seasonally weak period include Investors are recovering from the May sell off Commodity prices typically ease into the new financial year Investors look to clean out their portfolios selling underperforming stocks Tax loss selling Stimulus from the May Federal Budget often begins in the new financial year This year investors have the added worries from overseas and these additional global risks that are driving markets near term Globally investors are trading in a Risk off environment Commodity prices have pulled back severely from their YTD highs Problems with a possible disorderly default by Greece exasperated by their inability to form a new government The next election is June 17 Spain is in the unenviable position of having to recapitalise its banking system at a time when they are having troubles accessing the capital markets The euro zone PIIGS economies are having problems convincing their populations of the merits of the austerity programs they are implementing US growth is slowing and the unemployment rate remains at stubbornly high levels Chinese growth is slowing Fear Gauge In times of uncertainty emotions drive the actions of investors Traders in the US have recognised this and have devised a measure for fear called the Volatility Index VIX The Volatility Index or fear gauge has proven reliable in the past The VIX is the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index a popular measure of the implied volatility of S P 500 index options It is a measure of the market s expectation of volatility over the next 30 day period Historically the VIX hits its highest levels during times of financial turmoil and investor fear As markets recover and investor fear subsides VIX levels tend to drop As stated in the CBOE Volatility Index white paper VIX is based on real time option prices which reflect investors consensus view of future expected stock market volatility Historically during periods of financial stress which are often accompanied by steep market declines option prices and VIX tend to rise The greater the fear the higher the VIX level As investor fear subsides option prices tend to decline which in turn causes VIX to decline It is important to note however that past performance does not necessarily indicate future results This effect can be seen in the VIX behaviour isolated during the GFC Debt Crises in 2008 As the chart below illustrates the VIX spiked to its peaks as the market suffered through steep declines in mid 2008 and then rallied in early 2009 Measuring the Fear The VIX gauge is now moving to elevated levels which is understandable as the VIX measures market expectations of near term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices If history repeats then we may well be in a period of continued selling As seen in the chart investors can use the VIX to define their trading strategies according to the underlying mood of the market The key levels on the VIX that traders need to be wary of are the 20 and the 40 levels Chart 1 S P500 versus Fear Gauge VIX Risk Off As illustrated when the VIX trades from below 20 and then crosses above 20 it is a time when risk off should prevail Traders should be looking to protect their portfolios and look to profit by trading the market short with the expectation that the volatility is likely to increase near term refer to the red dots on the chart You can see from the chart that we are currently negotiating this type of market Risk On As illustrated when the VIX trades down from above 40 it is a signal for more aggressive traders to look at the market for signs of capitulation More conservative investors will wait for the VIX to then cross below 30 for confirmation that the market environment is turning to risk on Traders should then be looking to build their portfolios picking up bargains and trading the market to the long side with the expectation that the volatility is likely to contract near term refer to the green dots on the chart You can see from the chart that if history repeats then we are some way off from a bottom in the markets Central Bank Intervention Central banks can short circuit market moves and can provide the catalysts for a turnaround in sentiment In 2012 however with the situation in Greece and the problems with the Spanish banking system central banks in the euro zone are unlikely to move until at least July In China there is plenty of rhetoric about the government being supportive of the Chinese economy as the domestic growth slows China has just cut rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2008 In the US the Federal Reserve has indicated that it is not in a hurry to act to provide future stimulus as Operation Twist is not due to finish until the end of June The US growth rate is likely to remain between 2 and 2 5 in 2012 but there is the stubborn problem of a jobless recovery If the Fed has its way it will be waiting for the EU and ECB to fix the debt concern issues in the eurozone Capitulation Capitulation happens at market extremes and is often accompanied with an exhaustion gap and a huge spike in volume in the prevailing direction of the trend as stock ownership passes from weaker hands to stronger hands It will be interesting to see if this unfolds in our market given the steady grind lower by the markets since late April Trading volumes have been relatively low during in this market correction but have been picking up over the last week The Trade We are evaluating the US markets as a proxy for our market as the US has been resilient in the move to the upside in the past six months and we expect this leadership to continue for the foreseeable future at least until the end of the year The VIX offers a unique insight into the psyche of the traders driving the market at this time We suggest a plan of action as follows Bears are controlling the markets at this time especially while the markets hold below their 50 and 200 day moving averages Keep a defensive posture until the VIX confirms a turnaround in sentiment Sell the Rips in the near term Look out for capitulation where the buyers give up and step aside Be wary of a turnaround if the market falls around 16 as it has done in the past 3 years at this time of year Re evaluate if the market has consecutive closes above the 13 day moving average I trust that this information has been helpful Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you boost your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Trading This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags S P500 trading trading plan VIX vix gauge volatility Posted in Stock Market Analysis Trading Strategies No Comments Stock Market Analysis Markets Drift Higher On Succesful EU Debt Auctions Friday January 20th 2012 US stock markets continued to gain overnight ending at 6 month highs as corporate earnings jobs data and bank earnings reports kept stocks moving higher European stock markets rose overnight as the financials sector led the gains after successful Spanish and French debt auctions Asian stock markets pushed higher yesterday after the International Monetary Fund IMF said it planned to boost its lending resources and China moved to ease Commodities prices traded mostly lower as Gold prices lower to around US1 654 and while crude oil closed down around US100 The SPI Futures is trading below the key pivot level of 4180 ended up 0 7 or 29 points at 4 226 The key levels for our index today are 4180 to 4280 Australian shares have trimmed their early gains after the jobs numbers showed unemployment remained steady Investor sentiment started the day buoyed by news that the IMF may raise US1 trillion in additional funds to fight the eurozone debt crisis positive US economic news on the housing sector and a better than expected earnings report by Goldman Sachs The markets have ignored the World Bank s bleak picture for 2012 were it cut its outlook for global growth in 2012 when in its half yearly assessment of global economic prospects it has slashed its global growth forecast for 2012 from 3 6 percent to 2 5 percent News the that International Monetary Fund IMF would seek up to US500 billion in additional funds to combat the European debt crisis was well received by traders In today s job report the Australian Bureau of Statistics ABS reported that the unemployment rate was 5 2 percent in December compared with a revised 5 2 percent in November The Australian economy shed 29 300 jobs with the loss of 53 700 part time jobs and a gain of 24 500 full time position while the participation rate was lower at 65 2 percent in December down from 65 5 percent in November Shares in the All Ordinaries XAO traded eased today closing down 0 1 at 4279 as the S P ASX 200 XJO closed down 0 1 at 4215 Aussie shares are expected to continue to rise and traders are expected to continue to look for bargains today after positive leads from the US and European markets See below for ASX listed companies in the news today US Markets US stock markets continued to gain overnight ending at 6 month highs as corporate earnings jobs data and bank earnings reports kept stocks moving higher The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished above 12 600 while in the broader markets the S P 500 and the tech heavy Nasdaq rose another 0 5 Financials Technology and the Industrials all led the gains Bank of America was up 2 4 after reporting 4Q revenue that exceeded expectations while Morgan Stanley gained 5 4 after reporting a fourth quarter loss that still topped forecasts Weekly jobless claims fell the most in over six years There were a raft of earnings reports Union Pacific s railways rose 2 4 as fourth quarter earnings jumped a higher than

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  • US Economic News | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    options and warrants strategies Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China Japan and the US Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs which are currently at six month lows China Japan tensions and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4555 and is looking to close the week at a 15 month high Key levels for the index next week will be 4450 and 4590 with 4500 the key short term pivot level Traders are still buying on the back of the global central bank stimulus in anticipation that it will be enough to boost global growth In this last week s Analyst s Eye we introduced you to the Instalment MINI warrants that are the latest generation of Instalments Warrants providing straightforward and transparent leveraged exposure to Australia s leading companies for individuals and Self Managed Super Funds This strategy would have paid off handsomely on the ANZ trade this week Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you improve your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Advisory This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News Commodity prices eurozone news S P500 Stock Market Analysis US economic news US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Traders Sell the Fed Delays the ECB Falls Short of Assurances Friday August 3rd 2012 Traders began the week happy with the assurances from the European Central Bank that it would do whatever it takes to preserve the euro However as the week progressed traders chose caution and actually hit the sell button in disappointment over the inactivity by the US Federal Reserve and the ECB in relation to further easing The selling has been broad based in the past couple of sessions with the European markets looking to break their eight week streak of consecutive gains Overnight US stock markets fell for a fourth day on the back of disappointing global manufacturing data and news that the ECB and the Fed will delay any additional monetary easing until at least September The three benchmark indexes fell around 1 The S P 500 has slid 1 5 in the past week and is setting up for its first decline in four weeks Falls were broad based with the energy materials and the financial sectors leading the way down US economic news continues to disappoint with PMI manufacturing data weaker as orders placed with US factories unexpectedly declining in June We also saw the biggest decline in bookings for non durable goods in over three years confirming there is less demand for business equipment and goods US consumer confidence also dropped last week to the lowest level in two months due to mounting concern over the state of the economy while consumer spending stagnated Just to add a further dampener to investor confidence there was a mini flash crash yesterday that will cost market maker Knight Capital trading losses of over US440 million An initial review of the problems by the NYSE exchange revealed that nine of the Dow Jones Industrial Average companies lost almost US1 trillion in combined market value these firms included Alcoa Amex BofA and AT T European stock markets have backed off four month highs in recent sessions as the ECB failed to take immediate action and corporate earnings disappointed The Stoxx Europe 600 index declined 1 3 on the prospect of slowing global growth Overnight the European Central Bank ECB President Mario Draghi failed to live up to his reassurances that the ECB would do whatever it takes to support the euro saying that the ECB is working on the issue but will not take immediate steps to support the economy The cost of funding in Spain has again shot up to 7 16 and in Italy it s again approaching 6 4 These high levels are unsustainable in the medium term and the Spanish and Italian markets plunged around 5 on the news Traders initiated a global sell off in a case of sell on the news as ECB President Draghi signaled the ECB intends to join forces with governments to buy bonds in sufficient quantities to ease the eurozone debt crisis while conceding that the German Bundesbank has reservations about the plan ECB officials are working on the plan and details will be fleshed out in the coming weeks he said after keeping the benchmark interest rate on hold at 0 75 percent Financial markets and politicians had ratcheted up pressure on the ECB to act after Draghi pledged last week to do whatever it takes to save the euro battered for almost three

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  • Markets Are Holding Above Key Short-Term Support | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    outlook and a report showing growth of the Japanese current account surplus slowed in August The World Bank also dampened investor sentiment after saying policy makers in the Asian emerging economies have room to provide more fiscal stimulus as the Chinese slowdown drags the region s growth to a forecast 11 year low in 2012 In China the Shanghai Composite rose to a 3 week high this week due to speculation that the government will take steps to provide additional stimulus which would support equities that are trading at their cheapest levels since at least 1997 In Hong Kong the market also traded higher For the year the Shanghai Composite has lost 4 due to concerns that the Chinese government is struggling to reverse an economic slowdown and overnight the IMF cut its 2012 growth estimate for the Chinese economy by 0 2 percent to 7 8 percent In commodities crude oil prices have been volatile again this week but are looking to close the week around US92 again as prices rebounded on the back of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East The gold price is backing off 11 month highs and is now trading around the US1 770 level as traders price in the global quantitative easing Copper remains around 4 month highs The Australian market is testing the 4500 level as we predicted last week given the coordinated global central bank action designed to boost economic activity worldwide The Australian market has edged higher closing at the highest level since August 2011 as traders bet that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will follow this week s interest rate cut with another reduction in November to 3 which would be a 50 year low and the lowest since back at the height of the GFC In our market the high yielding and defensive sectors have supported the market this week as investors took their cue from the central banks and continued chasing yield in the market The financials and energy sectors have resumed their upward path The financial and info tech sectors held around 12 month highs The materials industrials and utilities sectors eased towards the end of the week as traders have been coming to terms with their optimism over the central bank stimulus Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China Japan and the US Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China Japan tensions and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4491 and is looking to close the week near a 15 month high Key levels for the index next week will be 4420 and 4520 with 4460 the key short term pivot level Traders are still buying on the back of the global central bank stimulus in anticipation that it will be enough to boost global growth Protection is extremely cheap at the moment and investors should have

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/2012/10/12/markets-are-holding-above-key-short-term-support/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Australian Market News | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    in place for their capital and could look to put their money to work while reducing their risk by using options and warrants strategies In this week s Analyst s Eye we introduce you to the Instalment MINI warrants that are the latest generation of Instalments Warrants providing straightforward and transparent leveraged exposure to Australia s leading companies for individuals and Self Managed Super Funds Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you improve your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Advisory This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags Asian Markets ASX News australian market news commodities prices S P 500 Stock Market Analysis US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Traders Take a Breather After A Week Of Sustained Selling Weekly Market Wrap Friday August 10th 2012 Traders began the week with some cheer as US economic data surprised to the upside and as German leaders backed ECB President Draghi s commitment to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro As the week progressed traders chose Risk On and we saw some switching out of the defensive sectors which have had a spectacular run into the growth sensitive mining and energy sectors US stock markets have edged higher every day this week as investor sentiment has been boosted by improving economic data on the trade and jobs front The week began with buying across the board with most sectors now up over 2 for the week Investors cheered the ISM manufacturing and US Nonfarm payrolls figures The Labor Department reported US payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 163 000 jobs in July better than the 100 000 forecast but the unemployment rate rose to 8 3 up from 8 2 The Institute for Supply Management reported that service sector activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in July than the previous month The three benchmark indexes are again higher for the week and are now approaching 4 year highs Traders are still betting on a QE3 as the world s largest economy requires bigger gains in employment to prevent the ongoing European debt crisis and approaching US fiscal cliff from stalling the modest economic expansion The Federal Reserve said at its FOMC meeting last week that it expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters that it will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments and will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability With the benchmark indexes remaining near 4 year highs investors are cautiously optimistic of further monetary easing in the coming months European stocks climbed for a fifth straight day overnight as their reporting season rolls on The European Stoxx 600 index is at its highest close since mid March having rallied 16 from its June 2012 lows and moving up for nine consecutive weeks So far this earnings season 261 companies in the Stoxx 600 have reported half yearly profit and 60 have exceed expectations despite the ongoing eurozone debt crisis There are reports suggesting the debt laden Spanish government may ask for aid from the European temporary bailout fund prompting yields on Spanish and Italian bonds to fall by almost half that of the crisis levels Across the region the banks have been bought up after investors were assured by Mario Draghi regarding the ECB s action plan to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro and comments from German officials that they would support a plan Asian stock markets are closing higher for the week The Chinese market is attempting to find support after three months of selling while Hong Kong markets are at 3 month highs and in Japan the market has bounced and is approaching 2 month highs Asian traders focus has moved from the eurozone crisis towards China as some key economic data was released Markets have traded higher into the end of the week on hopes the Chinese government will add to easing measures after its CPI report showed Chinese inflation cooled The Chinese market has bounced having found support in recent days at a key level as the National Bureau of Statistics reported Chinese consumer prices CPI rose 1 8 from a year earlier down from a 2 2 gain in June while industrial production growth cooled in July Traders are anticipating more affirmative action from the Chinese central banks in terms of additional easing as growth sensitive stocks have seen a turnaround in the past couple of weeks There is also a view that miners and energy companies are lagging gains in the underlying commodities markets and that for this reason they are undervalued on future potential earnings In commodities crude oil prices surged to around US94 this past week as concerns grew about supply issues and in anticipation of monetary easing globally The gold price has bounced in the past few sessions to US1 620 after news of the ECB s reassurances and the prospect of QE3 in the US although this will be delayed into September at this stage Copper prices have moved to 1 month highs The Australian market has continued higher and is now at 3 month highs due to the prospect of coordinated global central bank action and our mining and energy stocks continue to show some much needed signs of recovery 4250 is the current pivotal level and 4200 is the critical support level for next week In our market the defensive sectors have seen some severe profit taking with traders moving towards growth sensitive mining and energy stocks as our earnings season unfolds Companies that disappoint are being punished through their share prices with banks Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks all seeing profit taking this week despite the dividend season being this month The industrials materials and energy sectors are bouncing off key 3 year lows and we have seen some active short covering for the near term In the past couple of weeks we have forewarned readers that we are seeing some buying in the energy and materials sectors as investors are seeking some Risk On and we have seen follow through this week Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies Look to pick up value stocks in growth sensitive sectors when they reach your buy levels Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US and as Aussie stocks begin their reporting season Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4291 and is looking to close the week above its 200 day moving average which will be a key support level for next week Key levels for the index next week will be 4200 and 4320 with 4250 the key short term pivot level Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you boost your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Trading For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags Asian Markets ASX News australian market news Commodities market wrap Stock Market Analysis US markets Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Traders Celebrate ECB Reassurances Friday July 27th 2012 Last week we talked about traders seeing green as they anticipated a coordinated monetary easing effort across the globe However traders were starting to turn a little green themselves by mid week as stock markets across the world sold down and the coordinated global central bank easing failed to materialise The selling was persistent in the European markets as the eurozone debt crisis was worsening with the cost of borrowing for Italy and Spain reaching unsustainable levels over 7 for 2 and 10 year debt It also looked increasingly likely that Greece would be unable to meet the austerity restrictions needed to qualify for its bailout and Spain looked set to be the next in line to need a bailout The Spanish stock market regulator the CNMV announced a ban on all short selling for the next three months citing the extreme volatility that equities are now experiencing while in Italy the regulator announced a short selling ban for the next week on some banking and insurance shares In the US markets have traded sideways this week as the corporate earnings results have been mixed Asian markets were subdued and by mid week the Japanese market had reached 7 week lows Hong Kong reached 5 week lows and China 4 year lows Now for some good news investor sentiment performed an about face overnight and traders across the globe started buying after the ECB President Draghi pledged to do whatever it takes to preserve the EU economic zone Stocks surged across the board led by financials but the telecommunications consumer mining and energy sectors powered higher as traders sought risk on US stock markets surged on the ECB comments recovering overnight to near 2 month highs after spending most of the week down around their 200 day moving averages The earnings season continues and of the 263 S P 500 companies that have reported 72 have topped analysts estimates on the earnings side but only 43 have beaten on revenue which is disappointing European markets managed to rebound overnight with the French market surging over 4 while the German market has bounced 3 5 from its weekly lows The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 2 5 for its biggest gain since the end of June The gauge had dropped 4 4 in the previous four sessions with traders hitting the sell button as Spain and Italy have to pay unsustainable rates for their debt borrowings The ECB reassurances saw Spanish 10 year bond yields fall below 7 while Spanish 2 year yields fell the most this month after ECB President Draghi said that addressing high yields on sovereign debt was within the central bank s mandate The ECB was responding to calls by Spanish policy makers asking the central bank to fight a renewed round of financial turmoil that pushed the country s bond yields to euro area records this week Italian bond yields also subsided Asian markets are rebounding today but the Chinese market remains at 4 years lows Chinese officials said that government easing will be sidelined near term while they watch the outcomes of recent interest rates cuts and as bank lending is starting to improve The estimates forecast for GDP growth next quarter are mixed ranging from 7 4 to 7 6 which is around the government benchmark of 7 5 In commodities crude oil prices eased to above US89 this past week as US inventories picked up again with tensions in the middle east seen as easing The gold price has bounced in the past couple of sessions after the ECB s reassurances and as QE3 looms again Gold is again trading above US1 600 Copper prices have also moved higher bouncing off their 200 day moving average The Australian market is in the process of forming a second higher low as seen on today s chart and is set to test 2 month highs again If the global central banks do act this would be a catalyst for our market to push higher and will give a badly needed boost to our mining and energy stocks The 4200 level is the next pivotal resistance level and 4120 is the critical support level for next week In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with banks Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks trading higher as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment and as we move into the dividend season in August The industrials materials and energy sectors are bouncing off key short term support levels and we appear to be seeing short covering near term The banks have surged and are testing 3 month highs as investors turn to dividend yield However we are seeing some buying in the energy and materials sectors as investors seek risk on but we need to see follow through next week to continue the upward momentum for the market Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies Look to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach your buy levels Last week we said it may be time to start to nibble away at materials and energy stocks which proved fortuitous as they held on to recent support levels Remain attuned to news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US as the US reporting season continues Also monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4182 and is trying to close the week around the 2 month trading range Key levels for the index next week will be 4120 and 4280 with 4200 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern D2MX Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags asian market news australian market news commodities prices ecb EU debt eurozone US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Testing Time for Investors Friday June 8th 2012 Investor nerves have been tested this week as volatility increased Traders in the northern hemisphere are gearing up for summer and global growth is declining for a third straight year The bears remain in control of the markets although stocks did tick up on hopes that the central banks will make a move towards quantitative easing These expectations are proving to be premature as the ECB and EU leaders are not likely make a move until after a government is formed by the Greek elections on 17 June In the US the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stopped short

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  • Commodities Prices | Online Stockmarket Trading Update
    stimulate economic growth while it is up around 8 for the year During the week the Japanese market recorded its largest daily percentage decline since May as the strong yen and the ongoing territorial dispute between China and Japan continued to weigh on sentiment The Shanghai Composite had fallen 7 7 this year on concern the government is not loosening monetary policy or introducing stimulus policies fast enough to counter the slowdown in the economy The index sold down to the 2000 level as traders vented their concern This has prompted the PBOC to act on stimulus as Chinese stocks have now risen for the first time in three days after reports that the People s Bank of China added a record net 365 billion yuan US56 billion to the financial system this week a form of quantitative easing as cash demand rises before their week long holiday In commodities crude oil prices fell below US90 this week the lowest level in two months but crude oil appears to be rebounding in the short term at least On the flip side gold prices at around US1 750 are on track to record their best quarterly gain in over two years currently up 10 since the start of July due to central banks boosting stimulus measures to support global growth Copper remains near 4 month highs and is on track to finish up around 7 for the quarter The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4380 and is looking to close the week lower Key levels for the index next week will be 4330 and 4450 with 4360 the key short term pivot level Traders are squaring off their accounts for the end of quarter and now need to decide if all this stimulus will be enough to boost global growth The mining and mine services sectors have been in focus this week as commodity prices have continued to pull back and data showed slowing global growth In our market the defensive sectors supported the market this week as investors took profits on their growth sensitive stocks near term Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks saw buying in to the end of quarter The financials and materials sectors have resumed their upward path The financial and info tech sectors held around 12 month highs The materials industrials and energy sectors eased over the week as trader optimism over the central bank stimulus faded Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China Japan and the US Monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China Japan tensions and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices Protection is very cheap at the moment and investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to put their money to work while reducing risk by using options and warrants strategies Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you improve your returns on investment Michael Hevern Investment Adviser D2MX Advisory This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags asx market news commodities prices eurozone debt QE3 S P500 Stock Market Analysis Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Traders Celebrate ECB Reassurances Friday July 27th 2012 Last week we talked about traders seeing green as they anticipated a coordinated monetary easing effort across the globe However traders were starting to turn a little green themselves by mid week as stock markets across the world sold down and the coordinated global central bank easing failed to materialise The selling was persistent in the European markets as the eurozone debt crisis was worsening with the cost of borrowing for Italy and Spain reaching unsustainable levels over 7 for 2 and 10 year debt It also looked increasingly likely that Greece would be unable to meet the austerity restrictions needed to qualify for its bailout and Spain looked set to be the next in line to need a bailout The Spanish stock market regulator the CNMV announced a ban on all short selling for the next three months citing the extreme volatility that equities are now experiencing while in Italy the regulator announced a short selling ban for the next week on some banking and insurance shares In the US markets have traded sideways this week as the corporate earnings results have been mixed Asian markets were subdued and by mid week the Japanese market had reached 7 week lows Hong Kong reached 5 week lows and China 4 year lows Now for some good news investor sentiment performed an about face overnight and traders across the globe started buying after the ECB President Draghi pledged to do whatever it takes to preserve the EU economic zone Stocks surged across the board led by financials but the telecommunications consumer mining and energy sectors powered higher as traders sought risk on US stock markets surged on the ECB comments recovering overnight to near 2 month highs after spending most of the week down around their 200 day moving averages The earnings season continues and of the 263 S P 500 companies that have reported 72 have topped analysts estimates on the earnings side but only 43 have beaten on revenue which is disappointing European markets managed to rebound overnight with the French market surging over 4 while the German market has bounced 3 5 from its weekly lows The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 2 5 for its biggest gain since the end of June The gauge had dropped 4 4 in the previous four sessions with traders hitting the sell button as Spain and Italy have to pay unsustainable rates for their debt borrowings The ECB reassurances saw Spanish 10 year bond yields fall below 7 while Spanish 2 year yields fell the most this month after ECB President Draghi said that addressing high yields on sovereign debt was within the central bank s mandate The ECB was responding to calls by Spanish policy makers asking the central bank to fight a renewed round of financial turmoil that pushed the country s bond yields to euro area records this week Italian bond yields also subsided Asian markets are rebounding today but the Chinese market remains at 4 years lows Chinese officials said that government easing will be sidelined near term while they watch the outcomes of recent interest rates cuts and as bank lending is starting to improve The estimates forecast for GDP growth next quarter are mixed ranging from 7 4 to 7 6 which is around the government benchmark of 7 5 In commodities crude oil prices eased to above US89 this past week as US inventories picked up again with tensions in the middle east seen as easing The gold price has bounced in the past couple of sessions after the ECB s reassurances and as QE3 looms again Gold is again trading above US1 600 Copper prices have also moved higher bouncing off their 200 day moving average The Australian market is in the process of forming a second higher low as seen on today s chart and is set to test 2 month highs again If the global central banks do act this would be a catalyst for our market to push higher and will give a badly needed boost to our mining and energy stocks The 4200 level is the next pivotal resistance level and 4120 is the critical support level for next week In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with banks Telstra Real Estate REITs and health care stocks trading higher as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment and as we move into the dividend season in August The industrials materials and energy sectors are bouncing off key short term support levels and we appear to be seeing short covering near term The banks have surged and are testing 3 month highs as investors turn to dividend yield However we are seeing some buying in the energy and materials sectors as investors seek risk on but we need to see follow through next week to continue the upward momentum for the market Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies Look to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach your buy levels Last week we said it may be time to start to nibble away at materials and energy stocks which proved fortuitous as they held on to recent support levels Remain attuned to news from overseas particularly from the eurozone China and the US as the US reporting season continues Also monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4182 and is trying to close the week around the 2 month trading range Key levels for the index next week will be 4120 and 4280 with 4200 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern D2MX Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags asian market news australian market news commodities prices ecb EU debt eurozone US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Traders Sell On The News Friday June 22nd 2012 Well investors had an eventful week as promised and next week European Union leaders will likely keep traders on edge as they meet for a summit on 28 29 June The week started off on a positive note as the pro bailout New Democracy party came in first in Sunday s Greek national election and they have now sworn in a new coalition parliament Trader sentiment was also boosted by the news out of the G20 meeting where European officials pledged to take all necessary policy measures to defend the euro currency union as world leaders endorsed a road map for tighter integration to cut borrowing costs and prevent further damage to the global economy However German Chancellor Angela Merkel declined to commit to direct sovereign debt purchases through the eurozone bailout fund highlighting that there is still work to do to get consensus on this initiative The next critical meeting is the summit of European Union leaders in Brussels on 28 29 June US stock markets traded to one month highs this week having recovered 6 from the recent lows However they sold down sharply overnight in a delayed reaction to the Fed The markets were at key levels testing the 50 retracement levels from the May sell off The Federal Reserve has now committed to extending its Operation Twist program to replace short term bonds with longer term debt by US267 billion through to the end of 2012 however traders were disappointed because they had speculated on a more aggressive QE3 approach It is worth reflecting that the previous stimulus measures by the Fed including two rounds of quantitative easing through asset purchases known as QE1 and QE2 helped the S P 500 double from its bear market low in 2009 while US Treasury yields reached the lowest on record amid demand for safety away from the eurozone debt crisis European stock markets gained over the past couple of weeks but are now running into 50 day resistance levels The Greek market has been the standout up around 25 from its recent lows as a new coalition government has been sworn in ending the political limbo that began at the failed election on May 6th German Chancellor Angela Merkel is still reluctant to allow the use of Europe s dual bailout funds the European Financial Stability Facility EFSF and the European Stability Mechanism ESM to buy debt of countries like Italy and Spain and provide liquidity in the eurozone financial system In commodities crude oil has plunged to an eight month low as US inventories hit 22 year highs Gold prices pulled back this week as the US dollar rose in the absence of a QE3 announcement The CRB commodities index closed at its lowest level since 2010 and mining and energy stocks across the globe remain under pressure near term Asian stock markets have generally taken their cue from Europe this week and sold off heavily yesterday on the back of Chinese manufacturing data declining for an eleventh month out of the past twelve HSBC preliminary data shows that Chinese manufacturing is set to contract in June matching the streak during the global financial crisis GFC signaling that the Chinese government stimulus has yet to reverse the domestic economic slowdown The Chinese stock markets fell below a key level overnight dragging the benchmark index to the lowest level in 3 months after a report showed Chinese manufacturing shrank for an eighth consecutive month in June Traders are concerned that the growth slowdown is deepening in China and the sovereign debt issues are impacting corporate earnings going forward Selling was broad based but the miners and energy stocks suffered the brunt of the selling The Japanese market remains around 1 month highs The Australian market has traded sideways again this week and is again trying to hold around the key 4000 level Sentiment has remained cautious driven by news from the eurozone and hopes of central bank easing Major market defensive sectors have been tentatively holding on to the support levels of last week In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform with Telstra Realestate REITs and health care stocks holding ground as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment The materials and energy sectors continue to underperform on the back of lower commodity prices but banks are tentatively looking to find some support as investors turn to dividend yield On the S P ASX 200 the 4000 level will now be a crucial support level and the 4080 level is again pivotal for next week We have not seen capitulation by the bulls as yet which could come about if the current weekly support levels are breached at 3980 in which case we could see the 3950 and then the 3850 levels tested The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4049 and is testing breakeven levels for the year Key levels for the index next week will be 3930 and 4160 with 4080 the key short term pivot level Tonight traders will be reacting to Goldman Sachs recommendations to clients to build on their short positions in the broad S P 500 index on expectations of further economic weakness Also Moody s Investors Service has announced further downgrades of the credit ratings of 15 lenders and securities firms with exposure to the global capital markets Investors should have protection in place for their capital and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies With the sustained selling we have endured over the past few weeks we are looking to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields when they reach our buy levels Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone the EU leader summit now that China is facing another month of contracting manufacturing activity and the US as the US markets back off their 3 week highs Monitor the performances of Spain Italy China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices Contact me at D2MX Trading on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using a number of strategies that will give you the tools to navigate this market and help you boost your returns on investment For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research By Michael Hevern DM2X Trading Desk This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Disclaimer Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected Tags ASX News commodities prices eurozone debt G20 greek elections S P 500 Stock Market Analysis Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Bulls Are Gaining Control Near Term Friday April 27th 2012 The bulls are wrestling control of the markets again particularly in the US as the earnings season continues to beat expectations The Aussie market remains tantalisingly close to its 9 month resistance level US markets are on track to record one of their best weekly performances for the year US stock markets continued to rebound overnight as the earnings season continues to be robust and the Bernanke Put remains in play The Federal Reserve policy setting committee reaffirmed its commitment to keeping interest rates low at least through late 2014 and later Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve would not hesitate to support the economy with more easing if required through buying more long term bonds as in Operation Twist which is scheduled to finish in June Economic news has been mixed with manufacturing reports indicating a slowing in activity and the weekly jobs data somewhat disappointing The US earnings season continues to surpass forecasts with Apple reporting a doubling in earnings for the quarter and its market capitalisation surged by nearly US50 billion in a single session Eurozone markets have managed to drift higher this week after the Stoxx Europe 600 index managed its first higher weekly close in 5 weeks The drift higher has come despite a backdrop of negative news but the jury is still out with the eurozone markets as they have bounced but they are now testing key resistance around their 50 day moving averages The German market broke down to 4 month lows early in the week after a preliminary reading of the German manufacturing purchasing managers index by Markit showed business activity contracted at the fastest rate since 2009 however sentiment recovered as the week progressed The French market has recovered from earlier losses sustained after a preliminary vote for their upcoming elections saw Socialist candidate Francois Hollande advance to the next round Hollande is seen as less committed to fiscal austerity than the incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy France will face an election on May 6 In London market gains have been capped after data showed that the British economy unexpectedly slipped into recession in the first quarter Overnight the S P Ratings Agency downgraded Spanish long term credit rating to BBB from A In Asia key markets are drifting but are holding at or above their 50 day moving averages with the Hong Kong market outperforming The Chinese market held on to recent gains despite Chinese data showing April manufacturing activity continued to contract as the HSBC preliminary flash reading of China manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed that activity improved in April from March but remained below the threshold of 50 indicating a contraction Traders were cautious ahead of some key central bank policy setting board meetings in the US and Japan and the French pre election Asian traders continue to bank on the hope that the Chinese government will lean towards monetary easing in the near term In Australia the market continues to drift higher as stocks have benefited from the positive sentiment overseas Defensive stocks are leading the way with Telstra at 2 year highs and the Healthcare sector pushing higher but the materials sector continues to underperform Banking stocks are pushing higher into their dividend and reporting season which begins early next month Typically the market should melt up in the last week of the month and into the start of the new month and at this stage it is going to plan Commodity prices have again been trading sideways this week as the US dollar has eased again Crude oil prices are hovering around the US104 level and copper has again been unable to trade above US4 00 and is holding below its 200 moving average support around US3 60 Gold prices have again found support around US1 640 The Aussie market has held above its 200 and 50 day moving averages and is still testing its 9 month resistance level around 4380 again On the S P ASX 200 the 4280 level is now the crucial support level and 4400 is the key level on the upside Stocks have effectively been drifting higher as we move into the bank reporting and dividend season but we need the materials sector to participate for the market to reach new highs Traders should be looking to protect their recent profits and reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies In this week s Analyst s Eye we discuss using Warrants to Boost Returns on Dividend Paying Stocks The D2MX Financial Advisory Services team can help with these trades Call me on 1300 610 024 for further information Investors should also be looking to utilise options and warrant strategies to protect their positions and profits Options are a relatively cheap form of insurance as volatility remains low and you can also leverage yourself for breakout trades as they occur Remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone and China in relation to easing policies and the US as their markets again approach their multi year highs Monitor the performance of China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4368 and is holding above the key 200 day moving average Key levels for the index next week will be 4280 and 4430 with 4300 the key short term pivot level By Michael Hevern D2MX Retail Trading Desk For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596 AFSL No 297950 D2MX and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Tags ASX australian shares commodities prices European Markets german PMI Stock Market Analysis US markets Weekly Market Wrap Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Traders Hold Their Nerve Friday February 24th 2012 Traders have held their nerve this week with markets holding at key levels after the Greek debt deal was finalised On the Aussie market the 4300 level is the key level and pressure is mounting for a break of this level though there has been some caution as the dispute over the Prime Minister s position is being resolved In the Analyst s Eye today we discuss the trade that is setting up for the market Note that the 4350 to 4300 level on the S P ASX 200 has held as resistance since July 2010 Globally markets are holding on to recent gains with the European markets holding up as Greece lives to default another day and despite comments that eurozone growth will slow in 2012 Asian markets are at multi month highs with Japanese stocks benefiting from a weaker yen and the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index finishing above 2400 its key 6 month pivot level after traders cheered the news that the Chinese central bank is moving to inject CNY400 billion into the Chinese banking system after announcing a cut in banks reserve requirement ratio to 20 5 from 21 The US stock markets are hovering around multi year highs as the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke the 13000 level for the first time since May 2008 before the GFC but has since eased back from this level Energy stocks have been in focus as crude oil melted higher to US109 while gold is higher at US1 780 In Australia the earnings season heated up this week with the general themes being that we have some sharp short covering rallies that even retail stocks have joined in banks are trading sideways miners are cashed up and will benefit from China easing but earnings have been tempered by delays due to weather events and their CAPEX budgets are expanding in the next few years Companies are still forecasting a tough 2012 particularly in the first half year The bulls have won out this week but there is still a struggle as the 4300 medium term pivot level is retested The main gainers have been the mid caps that handed down results that beat estimates For example Onesteel jumped over 50 this week The Aussie market is pushing up against its 200 day moving averages and the index is looking to close higher for a seventh week out of the past nine On the S P ASX 200 the 4180 level is the key support level and it has held once again as the market looks to be setting up for an assault on the 4320 level near term This week we again found support around the 4180 level but we are now trading at the 200 day moving average which sits around 4305 A number of the S P ASX sectors are trading above their 150 day moving averages including Energy Consumer Discretionary Technology and Industrials and their appears to be some rotation out of the more defensive sectors like Utilities and Telecoms while the Materials and Financials are testing overhead resistance and would need to break through for the market to punch through the 4300 level The dividend season rolls on so you can look to boost your yields through options strategies The MDS Financial Advisory Services team can help with these trades Call me on 1300 610 024 for further information Investors should also be looking to utilise options strategies to protect their positions as options are a relatively cheap form of insurance given the falling volatility of late Keep an eye on the Aussie reporting season and the political situation and remain attuned to the news from overseas particularly from the eurozone and China in relation to easing policies and the US as their markets hover around multi year highs Monitor the performance of the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices The S P ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4271 and is holding above the key medium term support level around 4180 Key levels for the index next week will be 4220 and 4320 with 4250 the key pivot level For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research By Michael Hevern MDS Trading Desk This report was prepared by Michael Hevern It represents the views and opinions of the author It is not intended for use by any third party without the approval of Michael Hevern While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No 408868 of MDS Financial Services Pty Limited ABN 28 088 190 283 AFSL No 333298 MDS and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd Opinions conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by MDS Financial Services Pty Ltd unless otherwise indicated The information contained in this Report is General Advice only as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives financial situation or needs Tags Asian Markets ASX News commodities prices eurozone debt Greek Debt market analysis S P ASX 200 US markets Posted in Stock Market Analysis No Comments Weekly Market Wrap Global Markets Reach Key Levels Friday February 3rd 2012 The Aussie market continues to hold on to its January gains having recorded its best January performance in over a decade Volatility continues to contract as investors remain comfortable with the current state of the market The retailers continue to have the greatest level of short interest for stocks on the S P ASX 200 index Investors should be taking this opportunity to protect their recent gains The bulls continue to control the market as we start February and trading volumes are steadily improving February is a busy time for Aussie investors as the reporting season gets underway and many stocks will be going ex dividend in the next six weeks Over a dozen stocks hand down their interim results on Tuesday US investors had their best January since 1997 as the Dow Jones Industrials rose 3 4 for the month the S P 500 was up 4 while the Nasdaq outperformed up 8 The earnings season has been exceeding expectations and the US financials have held on to their record gains Manufacturing figures are improving globally and a reading on US manufacturing came in at 54 1 for January up from 53 1 There is a lot of hype about Facebook s announcement to IPO to the tune of 5 billion and Apple has been confirmed as the largest corporation on the boards outsizing Exxon Mobile Corporation The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke addressed US lawmakers overnight describing the pace of the US economic recovery as frustratingly slow and warned of the importance of addressing the US s fiscal challenges highlighting that eurozone sovereign debt crisis is an example of out of control fiscal policies Bernanke fell short of reaffirming a QE3 package however Traders will be focusing now on the US Non Farm Payroll monthly employment figures out tonight European markets are continuing to melt up with the European Stoxx 600 index holding at 6 month highs Globally investor sentiment has been boosted by successful eurozone bond auctions with borrowing costs continuing to pull back despite the Fitch ratings agency downgrading Italy Spain Belgium Slovenia and Cyprus and cutting the outlook for Ireland Sentiment has been buoyed by the news of a successful fiscal compact as all but two of the European Union countries have agreed to sign a treaty designed to stop overspending on the eurozone and put an end to the bloc s disastrous debt crisis while also pledging to stimulate growth across the region European shares have continued higher this week after data showed that the ISM manufacturing index climbed to 54 1 in January Additionally manufacturing data from Germany the U K and the eurozone all boosted sentiment as the German PMI rose to 51 0 in January up from 48 4 while eurozone PMI rose to 48 8 in January above estimates of 48 7 while London the UK PMI hit an eight month high of 52 1 in January up from 49 7 The eurozone debt crisis continues to simmer under the surface though as there is concern that Portugal may be the next in line for a Greek style debt bailout The European leaders and Greek bondholders are still in negotiations over the Greek bailout where Greece has to write down the country s debt by EUR100 billion A resolution is essential as Greece must repay EUR14 5 billion of maturing debt in March to avoid a default Asian markets returned from their Lunar New Year holidays and traders played some catch up The key data point for the week was the Chinese manufacturing activity figures coming in better than expected but this did heighten concerns that the government may not need to immediately ease its monetary policy The Chinese official Purchasing Managers Index PMI was reported at 50 5 in January up from 50 3 in December above expectations of a drop to 49 5 50 is the level that delineates expansion and contraction The Chinese market is approaching 2 month highs The Aussie market has once again found medium term support around the 4200 level and has finished higher four

    Original URL path: http://blog.traderdealer.com.au/tag/commodities-prices/ (2013-02-02)
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