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  • real estate : third wave group
    report on Channel Seven s Today Tonight is not going to increase the confidence of potential buyers The report title Property Price Plunge gives you an idea of the tone Whilst hardly a detailed analysis of the real estate market in Filed under general posts Tagged with australia philip soos prosper real estate today tonight Real Estate a new paradigm Posted by Tracey Watts on July 12 2011 2 Comments One of the most interesting things about any market is the almost measurable ebb and flow of sentiment It is easy to see how sentiment and the psychology of market participants forms the basis of just about any type of cyclical activity whether it be fashion fads business cycles or the price of real estate Filed under general posts Tagged with australia mike shedlock real estate united states Denial is not a river in Egypt Posted by Tracey Watts on May 12 2011 3 Comments Back in September 2010 we produced the following graph showing the psychological path a typical housing bubble or any bubble for that matter traces and where we thought Australia was positioned Current indications are that we are starting to move away from the denial stage and inexorably heading to the fear stage While it would Filed under general posts Tagged with australia psychology real estate undersupply Dubious real estate coverage finally questioned Posted by Tracey Watts on May 6 2011 Leave a Comment It has been an enormous source of frustration to read mainstream analysis of the Australian housing market that at best is patently uninformed and at worst is purposely misleading What are journalists and economic commentators doing out there It has come to the point that the most reliable and decently researched economic commentary and analysis Filed under general posts Tagged with australia bubblepedia delusional economics leith van onselen macrobusiness real estate the monthly Housing continues to roll over Posted by Tracey Watts on April 11 2011 1 Comment The state of the Australian housing market is beginning to become troublesome Housing finance figures for February were recently released showing the number of loans for new houses fell 12 per cent in February and have now dropped 36 per cent in 3 months According to CommSec it is the biggest 3 month fall in Filed under general posts Tagged with australia real estate The lighter side of the Aussie housing market Posted by Tracey Watts on April 2 2011 Leave a Comment On the one hand you have a serious and considered analysis of the economic impacts of negative gearing on the Australian economy by the always exceptional Unconventional Economist My main goal in starting this blog was to add a contrarian perspective on housing related issues in order to restore some balance to debates Filed under general posts Tagged with australia boganomics leith van onselen real estate China s Ghost Cities Posted by Tracey Watts on March 27 2011 2 Comments A recent episode of Dateline on SBS looks at the astonishing

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/real-estate/ (2013-02-03)
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  • recession : third wave group
    unexpected outcome the truth behind the headline GDP number is worrying What is more disquieting however is that the government seems to believe recession prevention is all Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia china henry ergas recession stimulus stockmarket Tidal Report 31 May 2009 The Budget vs the Economy Posted by Tracey Watts on May 31 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 28 Wall Street has had another positive week producing its third consecutive monthly rise along with Australian and other world indices The S P 500 index rose 5 3 per cent in May and 9 5 per cent in April In Australia the rises were 1 8 per cent in May 6 per cent in April and 7 1 Filed under tidal reports Tagged with budget economy international monetary fund private capital expenditure psychology recession short selling stimulus stockmarket Tidal Report 24 May 2009 Is the Return of Optimism Justified Posted by Tracey Watts on May 24 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 27 On 11 October 2007 the US S P500 peaked before falling 58 per cent to a low on 6 March 2009 The S P ASX200 in Australia peaked on 1 November 2007 and fell 54 per cent to the low of 9 March 2009 Those falls were historic particularly in terms of their velocity In the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia britain don argus great depression market history psychology recession stockmarket Tidal Report 17 May 2009 Economic Forecasting Alchemy Posted by Tracey Watts on May 17 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 26 On 12 November 2008 the ABC s Kerry O Brien was interviewing Treasurer Wayne Swan O Brien So let me hear in plain English that the budget is within a hair s breadth of going into deficit It seems silly that anybody would bother to argue that proposition Will you accept going into deficit if you have Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia budget debt deficit economy europe great depression intergenerational report kerry o brien recession stockmarket treasury wayne swan Tidal Report 3 May 2009 It s a Bear Market Posted by Tracey Watts on May 3 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 24 Stockmarkets around the world continued their recent positive momentum closing higher again for the week This is despite the rising concern of swine flu becoming a global pandemic US giant Chrysler going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy and locally disappointing earnings from ANZ Banking Group National Australia Bank and Macquarie Group In Australia the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with economy george soros mike smith paul volker recession stockmarket Tidal Report 23 Apr 2009 The R Word by Kevin Rudd Posted by Tracey Watts on April 23 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 23 Sharemarkets around the world waxed and waned throughout the week to end mostly flat by Friday s close In Australia the S P ASX 200 closed down 1 7 per cent and in the US the Dow Jones was down 0 7 per cent for

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/recession/ (2013-02-03)
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  • robert prechter : third wave group
    human behaviour and explains such things as the ebb and flow of clothing fads through to the rise and fall of empires Mass psychology is also found Filed under tidal reports Tagged with psychology robert prechter sentiment technical analysis Tidal Report 16 Oct 2010 It s the psychology stupid Posted by Tracey Watts on October 16 2010 5 Comments Issue 93 An across the board optimistic extreme over the past four months has lifted stocks the euro commodities and precious metals This rise is almost certainly ending as we go to press The stock market is on the cusp of completing a second wave rally high having partially retraced the decline Filed under tidal reports Tagged with commodities elliott wave junk bonds karl denninger psychology robert prechter Tidal Report 29 May 2010 More sellers than buyers Posted by Tracey Watts on May 29 2010 1 Comment Issue 73 It is rather an understatement to say that markets over the past few weeks have been volatile Take the Dow Jones index in the US as an example Since the high of 26 April the average daily move has been 260 points or about 2 5 per cent and every single Filed under tidal reports Tagged with great depression market history psychology richard russell robert prechter stockmarket technical analysis united states Tidal Report 22 May 2010 Is the bear market rally over Posted by Tracey Watts on May 22 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 72 There were some rather nasty falls on stockmarkets around the world this week The Australian S P ASX 200 was down 6 6 per cent and the S P 500 in the US down 8 3 per cent In Australia while the moves this week have been dramatic they are simply following through on the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler flash crash robert prechter sovereign debt stockmarket technical analysis Tidal Report 25 Oct 2009 The Technical Picture Posted by Tracey Watts on October 25 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 48 Third Wave Group is a fund manager and therefore an investor and trader As part of the business we also write this weekly newsletter to let our clients and subscribers know what is on our minds The Tidal Report tends to be quite general in nature and more often than not espouses our Filed under tidal reports Tagged with elliott wave psychology robert prechter sentiment technical analysis Tidal Report 27 Sep 2009 Insider Trading Posted by Tracey Watts on September 27 2009 2 Comments Issue 44 Our apologies for last week s Tidal Report no show Unfortunately both foreseeable and unforeseeable events made it impossible The foreseeable was a fabulous trip to Perth and the Margaret River region the unforeseeable was a computer going walkabout never to return This week however we are back on track Markets around the world made Filed under tidal reports Tagged with robert prechter sentiment stockmarket technical analysis Tidal Report 22 Mar 2009 Helicopter Money Posted by Tracey Watts

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/robert-prechter/ (2013-02-03)
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  • sentiment : third wave group
    and bond market action have continued to contradict their increasingly shrill assertions Europe has been hogging the headlines in recent months with its spreading sovereign debt and banking crises allowing the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler deleveraging economy mike shedlock psychology sentiment stockmarket united states Tidal Report 12 Jun 2010 Consumers go frugal Posted by Tracey Watts on June 12 2010 2 Comments Issue 75 Just over two months ago RBA governor Glenn Stevens gave an unprecedented interview to David Koch on the Seven Network s Sunrise program in what was billed as an exercise to improve the public s understanding of the RBA The relaxed and informal interview was a first for Glenn Stevens and was Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging glenn stevens retail sales sentiment steve keen Tidal Report 5 Jun 2010 Little Aussie Battler is battling Posted by Tracey Watts on June 5 2010 3 Comments Issue 74 The Australian dollar has been on a wild ride over the last month or so Against the US dollar the AUD has fallen from a high of 93 88 in April to its most recent low of 80 67 in less than two months a fall of 14 per cent a Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia contrarian investor s journal currency debt economy jim rogers psychology sentiment sovereign debt Tidal Report 1 Nov 2009 Sentiment gets the wobbles Posted by Tracey Watts on November 1 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 49 Markets around the world fell significantly this week led by Wall Street It was also a week of extreme volatility In the US the S P 500 fell 2 per cent on Wednesday rose 2 3 per cent the following day only to fall an astonishing 2 9 per cent on Friday Friday s performance is the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler eric sprott mike shedlock sentiment stockmarket Tidal Report 25 Oct 2009 The Technical Picture Posted by Tracey Watts on October 25 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 48 Third Wave Group is a fund manager and therefore an investor and trader As part of the business we also write this weekly newsletter to let our clients and subscribers know what is on our minds The Tidal Report tends to be quite general in nature and more often than not espouses our Filed under tidal reports Tagged with elliott wave psychology robert prechter sentiment technical analysis Tidal Report 27 Sep 2009 Insider Trading Posted by Tracey Watts on September 27 2009 2 Comments Issue 44 Our apologies for last week s Tidal Report no show Unfortunately both foreseeable and unforeseeable events made it impossible The foreseeable was a fabulous trip to Perth and the Margaret River region the unforeseeable was a computer going walkabout never to return This week however we are back on track Markets around the world made Filed under tidal reports Tagged with robert prechter sentiment stockmarket technical analysis Tidal Report 9 Aug

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/sentiment/ (2013-02-03)
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  • sovereign debt : third wave group
    the debt ceiling is nothing new and has in general occurred without fanfare Since 1962 the U S has reached its debt ceiling 74 times about once Filed under general posts Tagged with cato institute ron paul sovereign debt united states us debt ceiling The Greek people never learned to pay their taxes Posted by Tracey Watts on July 26 2011 3 Comments The hell that is the Greek economy is not new news We ve spoken at length about the country s raging debt and deficit problems see The tragedy that is Greece and Europe crumbles budget stumbles Confidence in the Greek economy is effectively non existent Ratings agency Moody s Investor Service has cut Greek sovereign debt to one notch Filed under general posts Tagged with economy greece sovereign debt vanity fair The Australian Government s wilful blindness Posted by Tracey Watts on July 16 2011 1 Comment We recently published an article by Liam Halligan chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management who opined that the US and Europe are in real economic trouble and although separate the dangers are intimately related He argued that both have their roots in grotesque and utterly unsustainable levels of government debt The view that the world Filed under general posts Tagged with australia carbon tax global financial crisis henry ergas oliver marc hartwich sovereign debt Grotesque government debt Posted by Tracey Watts on July 11 2011 3 Comments The latest end game crank to argue that the world economy or more specifically Europe and the US is in dire straits has hit the newsstands Liam Halligan chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management has written an article in The Telegraph clearly describing the precipice upon which the world s economy is standing The piece is reproduced Filed under general posts Tagged with europe sovereign debt united states Tidal Report 2 Oct 2010 The Irish Canary in the Coal Mine Posted by Tracey Watts on October 2 2010 8 Comments Issue 91 The once roaring Celtic Tiger economy is now but a distant memory for the Irish its economy seemingly unable to escape the grip of the meltdown that started with the Global Financial Crisis While Greece has been the headline act for the European sovereign debt crisis Ireland has always featured Filed under tidal reports Tagged with banks economy ireland real estate sovereign debt Tidal Report 21 Aug 2010 The crisis has not been contained Posted by Tracey Watts on August 21 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 85 The markets have been nervous and undecided all week with disappointing economic news being met with sharp falls There is growing evidence that the world economy is not recovering with an increasing number of mainstream reports warning of danger ahead Last week we discussed the increasing recognition as reflected in Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia currency debt europe greece mike shedlock saxo sovereign debt speigel tony abbott united states Tidal Report 26 Jun 2010 Stim u less Posted by Tracey Watts on

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/sovereign-debt/ (2013-02-03)
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  • steve keen : third wave group
    of Western Sydney and a prolific writer Keen passionately argues that neoclassical economics is a fatally flawed theory that not only failed to predict the Global Financial Crisis but Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging japan real estate steve keen united states Tidal Report 6 Feb 2010 The last one standing Posted by Tracey Watts on February 6 2010 2 Comments Issue 58 Apart from continued falls in world stockmarkets with the Australian S P ASX 200 now down 440 points 9 per cent from recent highs the big news this week was the Reserve Bank of Australia decision to leave official interest rates unchanged at 3 75 per cent This pronouncement was unexpected with all 20 surveyed economists Filed under tidal reports Tagged with britain demographia report first home owners fujitsu consulting housing affordability interest rates mike shedlock real estate steve keen stockmarket Tidal Report 20 Dec 2009 Debtwatch No 41 Posted by Tracey Watts on December 20 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 56 Professor Steve Keen has been mentioned and quoted many times in the Tidal Report Keen is an economist and has the distinction of being one of only twelve people in the world who predicted the Global Financial Crisis He is also the only Australian on that list This week we offer Keen s latest Filed under tidal reports Tagged with debt global financial crisis steve keen Tidal Report 6 Dec 2009 Great shorting opportunity looms Posted by Tracey Watts on December 6 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 54 Odds are increasing that a highly profitable shorting opportunity has arrived October 2007 marked the end of one of the longest debt fuelled market bubbles since the Roaring Twenties The crisis that followed began in the US credit markets but quickly moved to the rest of the world leading to the Global Financial Filed under tidal reports Tagged with debt global financial crisis steve keen stimulus united states Tidal Report 11 Oct 2009 Wrong plus wrong does not equal right Posted by Tracey Watts on October 11 2009 1 Comment Issue 46 This week the Reserve Bank of Australia became the first major central bank to raise interest rates increasing the official cash rate from 3 per cent to 3 25 per cent The basis for this rate rise is the RBA s view that the financial crisis is behind us and that it now needs to Filed under tidal reports Tagged with ben bernanke bill bonner debt glenn stevens interest rates ross guest steve keen stimulus Tidal Report 16 Aug 2009 Australian Story Posted by Tracey Watts on August 16 2009 1 Comment Issue 39 We spend a lot of time using the Tidal Report to comment on global economies and as an Australian firm interested in the plight of the Australian economy and market this could be considered a little non specific There are several reasons why we give what seems like disproportionate column centimetres to non Australian economic Filed under tidal

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/steve-keen/ (2013-02-03)
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  • stimulus : third wave group
    go hard go early go household stimulus spending Kevin Rudd has stated on many occasions that without the stimulus untold jobs would have been lost and Australia s economy would have entered a recession Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging great depression oecd sinclair davidson sovereign debt stimulus terry mccrann Tidal Report 12 Feb 2010 The Next Wave Posted by Tracey Watts on February 12 2010 1 Comment Issue 59 Senator Barnaby Joyce attracted much media attention and was roundly ridiculed this week when he questioned the possibility of default on Australia s government debt On the surface it appears his comments were rather alarmist as Australia has one of the lowest ratios of government debt to GDP in the western world We are Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler australia barnaby joyce cameron clyne dan denning debt greece oecd sovereign debt stimulus Tidal Report 6 Dec 2009 Great shorting opportunity looms Posted by Tracey Watts on December 6 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 54 Odds are increasing that a highly profitable shorting opportunity has arrived October 2007 marked the end of one of the longest debt fuelled market bubbles since the Roaring Twenties The crisis that followed began in the US credit markets but quickly moved to the rest of the world leading to the Global Financial Filed under tidal reports Tagged with debt global financial crisis steve keen stimulus united states Tidal Report 11 Oct 2009 Wrong plus wrong does not equal right Posted by Tracey Watts on October 11 2009 1 Comment Issue 46 This week the Reserve Bank of Australia became the first major central bank to raise interest rates increasing the official cash rate from 3 per cent to 3 25 per cent The basis for this rate rise is the RBA s view that the financial crisis is behind us and that it now needs to Filed under tidal reports Tagged with ben bernanke bill bonner debt glenn stevens interest rates ross guest steve keen stimulus Tidal Report 13 Sep 2009 The Great Debate Posted by Tracey Watts on September 13 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 43 Economic stimulus is one of the current debates between the government and the opposition Due to the sound bite nature of the debate the respective arguments are easily summarised The opposition believes the government has set off on a reckless spending program putting upward pressure on interest rates and lacking an exit strategy Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging john talbott stimulus Tidal Report 5 Jul 2009 China the Great Hope Posted by Tracey Watts on July 5 2009 3 Comments Issue 33 Last week the OECD raised its China growth forecast from 6 3 per cent to 7 7 percent At the same time the World Bank raised its forecast from 6 5 per cent to 7 2 per cent While the forecasting track record of these bodies might be considered dubious at best it does indicate in

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/stimulus/ (2013-02-03)
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  • stockmarket : third wave group
    the average daily move has been 260 points or about 2 5 per cent and every single Filed under tidal reports Tagged with great depression market history psychology richard russell robert prechter stockmarket technical analysis united states Tidal Report 22 May 2010 Is the bear market rally over Posted by Tracey Watts on May 22 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 72 There were some rather nasty falls on stockmarkets around the world this week The Australian S P ASX 200 was down 6 6 per cent and the S P 500 in the US down 8 3 per cent In Australia while the moves this week have been dramatic they are simply following through on the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler flash crash robert prechter sovereign debt stockmarket technical analysis Tidal Report 15 May 2010 Europe crumbles budget stumbles Posted by Tracey Watts on May 15 2010 2 Comments Issue 71 The relief that greeted the announcement by the European finance ministers of a rescue package for the ever escalating European debt crisis did not last out the week Continuing concerns over Greek solvency and the efficacy of the rescue package increased investor nervousness throughout the week with European stockmarkets experiencing Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler australia budget ets europe greece paul de grauwe stockmarket super profits tax terry mccrann Video Joe Saluzzi on CNBC Posted by Tracey Watts on May 9 2010 Leave a Comment Following the dramatic market crash on Thursday that saw the Dow Jones fall 1000 points on the day 700 of those points in just 15 minutes there is still no clear idea what triggered it High frequency trading algorithms however have been blamed for the magnitude of the meltdown which a number of market participants such Filed under general posts Tagged with high frequency trading joe saluzzi stockmarket Tidal Report 8 May 2010 Our fragile markets Posted by Tracey Watts on May 8 2010 1 Comment Issue 70 What a tumultuous week it has been on the markets An apparent perfect storm combination of a super profits tax on Australian resource companies continuing Greek debt dramas and riots and an alleged fat finger episode in the US that saw the Dow Jones index plunge 1000 points on Thursday The Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler australia europe greece stockmarket super profits tax terry mccrann Tidal Report 6 Feb 2010 The last one standing Posted by Tracey Watts on February 6 2010 2 Comments Issue 58 Apart from continued falls in world stockmarkets with the Australian S P ASX 200 now down 440 points 9 per cent from recent highs the big news this week was the Reserve Bank of Australia decision to leave official interest rates unchanged at 3 75 per cent This pronouncement was unexpected with all 20 surveyed economists Filed under tidal reports Tagged with britain demographia report first home owners fujitsu consulting housing affordability interest rates mike shedlock real estate steve keen stockmarket

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/stockmarket/ (2013-02-03)
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