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  • recession : third wave group
    The market started positively creating its high for the week on Monday and then proceeded to fall throughout the rest of the week Thursday saw the October Filed under tidal reports Tagged with psychology recession stockmarket wealth destruction Previous Page subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/recession/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 25 Oct 2009 – The Technical Picture : third wave group
    only the first leg down in a much larger bear market and that the current rally is no more than a bear market rally When this upward correction ends we expect the bear market to resume and eventually take out the March lows Based on current readings of the market we are getting very close to the end of this rally One of the many technical tools used to determine Elliott waves is investor sentiment Robert Prechter s most recent Elliott Wave Theorist shows how extreme sentiment readings are becoming Terminal advances in the stock market must also show an increase in optimism and a slowing in upside momentum Did you know that since June 2007 the Daily Sentiment Index which polls futures traders has reported more than 90 per cent bulls on the S P only once When would you guess that time to have been July 2007 October 2007 Wrong It was last month What this indicates is that optimism is at extreme peak levels levels ripe for a turn of some significance Optimism has soared from 2 per cent bulls in March to 92 per cent bulls in September The latest reading is 90 per cent bulls Another technical indicator that assists in painting the market s psychological picture is the number of stocks that are rising versus the number that are falling referred to as the advance decline ratio The theory is that if fewer stocks are advancing then the rally is weakening Additionally the volume of trades in the market can be used as an analysis tool with waning volume indicating less commitment by investors to the current move As The Elliott Wave Theorist goes on to explain Peak readings for the daily advance decline ratio have slipped from a kickoff level of 13 1 two days off the March bottom to an anaemic 3 1 last week Volume has contracted persistently throughout the rally as well This combination of observations shows waning upside momentum amidst persistent optimism a terminal condition It is a market that is being driven by momentum Anecdotally there is the feeling that those investors holding substantial long positions are unlikely to tolerate much of a decline before selling their positions If this is a true representation of investor mentality then a selling panic could easily ensue The other important technical consideration from an Elliott Wave point of view is that the structure of the rise from March is very much a corrective structure This means the rise from March is only a correction of the fall from November 2007 and once finished will fall again taking out the March lows This contrasts with the widely held view that we are actually in the throes of a new bull market and that the lows of March will hold The public is definitely engaged in the rally at the moment and the longer the indices stay at current levels the more bullish everyone will become What is fascinating is the market s

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-25-oct-2009-the-technical-picture/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 27 Sep 2009 – Insider Trading : third wave group
    investors such as the large superannuation funds are holding Institutional cash levels are a measure of sentiment with low levels suggesting that fund managers are fully committed to the idea that the market is rising The current rate of 4 2 per cent cash to assets ratio is one of the lowest in history indicating that professional money managers are all in Those cash levels are in fact lower than the top in 2000 and barely off the all time low of 3 5 per cent which occurred in July 2007 just prior to the stockmarket high Recent research conducted by Barclays Capital also offers insight into professional investor attitudes Of the 820 professional money managers and traders surveyed more than half feel the current rally is sustainable This growth in optimism is in clear contrast to the prior survey published in June when the majority of investors interviewed believed the rally was a short term correction Now only 19 per cent believe we are still witnessing a bear market rally While retail and professional investors are hot on the heels of this sentiment induced rally and are exhibiting a near panic to enter the market there is another group of investors worth observing corporate insiders This group of investors usually board members and executives of companies must declare any buying and selling of their company s shares This allows various research firms to track the level of insider buying and selling which is significant as corporate insider behaviour is usually better informed than the investing public Insiders are generally viewed as early sellers anticipating market moves in advance and likened to the canary in the mineshaft The latest data from the Vickers Weekly Insider Report published by Argus Research shows insiders sold 6 31 shares for every one they bought The comparable ratio two months ago was 4 16 1 and at the March lows the ratio was 0 34 1 Vickers editor David Coleman says in the latest issue of his newsletter Given the dramatic decline in our sell buy ratios over a relatively short period of time and the robust rally we have seen in the broad market averages we expect the overall markets to trade flat to downward in the intermediate term and with increasing volatility Overall insider sentiment is bearish by nearly all metrics we track It is worth remembering however that while insiders are not always right and their buying and selling is not a particularly useful timing tool it is a very useful measure of sentiment That sentiment is now as extreme as it gets It is also worth remembering that markets can move upwards in terminal mode for longer than you think possible In this month s Elliott Wave Theorist Robert Prechter discusses the daily price movements that occurred from mid February to mid April in 1930 These movements showed how a market could continue to rise even as sentiment and momentum indicators are screaming TOP Prechter notes that the turn took

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-27-sep-2009-insider-trading/ (2013-02-03)
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  • robert prechter : third wave group
    Nov 2008 Bailout City Posted by Tracey Watts on November 30 2008 1 Comment Issue 5 This week as anticipated equity markets rallied around the world One would be a brave soul however to buy in on this rally If the Australian market continues to follow the US it would be unlikely for the 21 November 2008 low of 3217 5 to be the bottom of this bear market It Filed under tidal reports Tagged with bailout britain china citigroup credit robert prechter stimulus stockmarket Tidal Report 23 Nov 2008 When Others Despair Posted by Tracey Watts on November 23 2008 Leave a Comment Issue 4 Where is the bear market rally Another week of negative moves on markets around the world saw both the US and Australian markets create new lows The S P ASX 200 formed a new low on Friday of 3217 5 as did the US markets with the Dow Jones reaching 7392 and the S P 500 741 Filed under tidal reports Tagged with great depression hedge funds motor vehicles psychology robert prechter stockmarket Previous Page subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/robert-prechter/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
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  • insider activity : third wave group
    respected market tool that attempts to judge whether insiders are optimistic or pessimistic about their company s future fortunes Insider scores are a true Filed under general posts Tagged with insider activity sentiment technical analysis subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/insider-activity/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 9 Aug 2009 – The Running of the Bulls : third wave group
    and confident conversely at the end of significant falls in price investor mood is universally bearish and fearful The general investor never sees the change in trend coming One has only to look at out most recent stockmarket moves for examples of this phenomenon At our market peak in November 2007 all measures of investor sentiment were strongly bullish with many at record readings right before the market had its most dramatic decline in decades In March 2009 the most recent stockmarket low the reverse occurred with the various sentiment readings at record levels of pessimism So besides our anecdotal experience of the rise in investor optimism what are the sentiment indicators telling us about the mood of investors In short the sentiment picture has become steadily more conducive to a significant decline in most world stockmarkets The most recent Investor s Intelligence Advisors survey a study of independent market authors current stance on the market jumped an astonishing 93 percent in just one week in the bullish direction The Daily Sentiment Index based on nonprofessional speculators opinions of futures markets has had back to back days of 88 percent stockmarket bulls This is the highest degree of stockmarket optimism among investors since the November 2007 highs It must be remembered that rallies in bear markets can often generate optimistic extremes that equal or exceed the readings found at prior peaks This doesn t mean however that optimism and therefore the markets cannot continue to go higher for a little longer but it does mean that the conditions we are expecting prior to this rally ending have been soundly satisfied and extreme caution is required So for those tempted to buy into the stockmarket based on fear of missing out due everyone talking of a recovery the sentiment picture should give you pause Peer pressure does not only occur among teenagers Remember investing is a long term game and participating in this current short term rally in the stockmarket is high risk There will be far safer opportunities in the future The role of an investor is to be in the market when the longer term trend is up and to be out of the market when the longer term trend is down Despite the recent rally the evidence still strongly suggests the longer term trend in the stockmarket is down In these times there are two investing truisms worth a revisit protect your capital and money can be made sitting on the sidelines In the current market to protect your capital the best place is on the sidelines Based on historical market performance economic fundamentals and current market analysis the probabilities are still weighted towards another significant downturn in the market Now is not the time to be buying into the market through fear of missing out patience is the key to investing Category tidal reports Tags psychology sentiment stockmarket Comments One Response to Tidal Report 9 Aug 2009 The Running of the Bulls Trackbacks Check out what others

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-9-aug-2009-the-running-of-the-bulls/ (2013-02-03)
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  • cato institute : third wave group
    new and has in general occurred without fanfare Since 1962 the U S has reached its debt ceiling 74 times about once Filed under general posts Tagged with cato institute ron paul sovereign debt united states us debt ceiling subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/cato-institute/ (2013-02-03)
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  • sovereign debt : third wave group
    it last Edmund Conway Economic Editor of the The Telegraph in the UK gives some insight into the package and its very obvious pitfalls This is a big moment for Filed under general posts Tagged with britain edmund conway europe global financial crisis sovereign debt Tidal Report 10 Apr 2010 Sovereign Debt Crisis Posted by Tracey Watts on April 10 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 66 The Global Financial Crisis was caused by unprecedented levels of private debt Instead of allowing the private sector to deleverage however world governments responded by picking up the baton and pouring vast amounts of stimulus into their economies causing sovereign debt to rise to unprecedented levels Regular readers will know our view on Filed under tidal reports Tagged with bank of international settlements sovereign debt Tidal Report 27 Feb 2010 Stimulus what is it good for Posted by Tracey Watts on February 27 2010 1 Comment Issue 61 The Rudd Government and Treasury consider the Global Financial Crisis to have been survived by Australia largely because of the go hard go early go household stimulus spending Kevin Rudd has stated on many occasions that without the stimulus untold jobs would have been lost and Australia s economy would have entered a recession Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging great depression oecd sinclair davidson sovereign debt stimulus terry mccrann Tidal Report 12 Feb 2010 The Next Wave Posted by Tracey Watts on February 12 2010 1 Comment Issue 59 Senator Barnaby Joyce attracted much media attention and was roundly ridiculed this week when he questioned the possibility of default on Australia s government debt On the surface it appears his comments were rather alarmist as Australia has one of the lowest ratios of government debt to GDP in the western world We

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/sovereign-debt/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
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