archive-au.com » AU » T » THIRDWAVEGROUP.COM.AU

Total: 356

Choose link from "Titles, links and description words view":

Or switch to "Titles and links view".
  • mike shedlock : third wave group
    last one standing Posted by Tracey Watts on February 6 2010 2 Comments Issue 58 Apart from continued falls in world stockmarkets with the Australian S P ASX 200 now down 440 points 9 per cent from recent highs the big news this week was the Reserve Bank of Australia decision to leave official interest rates unchanged at 3 75 per cent This pronouncement was unexpected with all 20 surveyed economists Filed under tidal reports Tagged with britain demographia report first home owners fujitsu consulting housing affordability interest rates mike shedlock real estate steve keen stockmarket Tidal Report 29 Nov 2009 The View from Burj Dubai Posted by Tracey Watts on November 29 2009 1 Comment Issue 53 All eyes and commentary in recent months have been on the decline of the US dollar with the almost universal view that it was going to collapse completely As recently as this week sentiment indicators showed 97 per cent US dollar bears That is an astonishingly high reading A view that one sided Filed under tidal reports Tagged with currency debt deleveraging dubai europe mike shedlock Tidal Report 1 Nov 2009 Sentiment gets the wobbles Posted by Tracey Watts on November 1 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 49 Markets around the world fell significantly this week led by Wall Street It was also a week of extreme volatility In the US the S P 500 fell 2 per cent on Wednesday rose 2 3 per cent the following day only to fall an astonishing 2 9 per cent on Friday Friday s performance is the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler eric sprott mike shedlock sentiment stockmarket Previous Page subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/mike-shedlock/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
    Open archived version from archive


  • psychology : third wave group
    in just 12 days taking it up an impressive 32 per cent since the March 10 low This rise however is less significant Filed under tidal reports Tagged with david gruen debt dirk bezemer economics paul de grauwe psychology recession robert shiller steve keen stockmarket united states Tidal Report 28 Jun 2009 What is investor sentiment telling us Posted by Tracey Watts on June 28 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 32 As discussed in previous issues of the Tidal Report our view is that the ebb and flow of markets is due to the ebb and flow in investor sentiment Reading the psychology of investors is measured in many ways and is the basis of technical analysis The ebb and flow of recent sentiment Filed under tidal reports Tagged with psychology stockmarket Tidal Report 31 May 2009 The Budget vs the Economy Posted by Tracey Watts on May 31 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 28 Wall Street has had another positive week producing its third consecutive monthly rise along with Australian and other world indices The S P 500 index rose 5 3 per cent in May and 9 5 per cent in April In Australia the rises were 1 8 per cent in May 6 per cent in April and 7 1 Filed under tidal reports Tagged with budget economy international monetary fund private capital expenditure psychology recession short selling stimulus stockmarket Tidal Report 24 May 2009 Is the Return of Optimism Justified Posted by Tracey Watts on May 24 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 27 On 11 October 2007 the US S P500 peaked before falling 58 per cent to a low on 6 March 2009 The S P ASX200 in Australia peaked on 1 November 2007 and fell 54 per cent to the low of 9 March 2009 Those falls were historic particularly in terms of their velocity In the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia britain don argus great depression market history psychology recession stockmarket Tidal Report 19 Apr 2009 New Bull Market Unlikely Posted by Tracey Watts on April 19 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 22 The Australian stockmarket continued its recent winning streak with the S P ASX 200 closing for the week at 3776 7 a rise of 2 9 per cent It has now gained 25 per cent from the five year low of March 9 making it the largest rally in this 18 month bear market In the US Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia psychology stockmarket technical analysis vix Tidal Report 5 Apr 2009 Nouriel Roubini Talks About U Posted by Tracey Watts on April 5 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 20 Four weeks of positive performance from the S P ASX 200 has seen the index rise nearly 20 per cent from the bear market low of 3120 on March 10 Quite a bear market rally It is in fact the 7th rally since the start of the bear market in November 2007 three of which Filed

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/psychology/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
    Open archived version from archive

  • real estate : third wave group
    is in a speculative bubble on the verge of collapsing and those that don t Those that don t most often cite chronic housing undersupply as the crucial force that will maintain current values Regular readers will know we don t buy into the Filed under general posts Tagged with land regulation real estate undersupply Brisbane what next Posted by Tracey Watts on January 16 2011 Leave a Comment A huge number of Brisbane households have suffered the extreme anguish of seeing their homes inundated with water with many losing everything they own Media have highlighted the emotional heartbreak involved in the destruction of one s possessions and most significant assets however the resulting financial burden or more likely devastation has yet to be played Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia brisbane flood david llewellyn smith delusional economics real estate Can we learn from Ireland Posted by Tracey Watts on December 25 2010 1 Comment They say that the definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again expecting a different result Do we ever learn It is not as if Australia is unaware of the anatomy of a property bubble the world is littered with recent examples of hot property markets crashing We are Filed under general posts Tagged with leith van onselen mike shedlock real estate Tidal Report Irish Lessons Posted by Tracey Watts on December 5 2010 1 Comment Issue 100 As far as classic boom bust stories go Ireland is fast becoming the modern day equivalent of the South Sea bubble and the tulip mania Her fall from grace could not be more complete transformed from roaring Celtic Tiger to bankruptcy in just a few short years We explored Ireland s Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia ireland leith van onselen mike shedlock real estate Tidal Report Will renting be the new black Posted by Tracey Watts on November 27 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 99 The psychology behind home ownership is an incredibly powerful and pervasive force For some the home they own is a direct reflection of social status and how they imagine their worth is assessed by others The aspirational nature of home ownership is a cultural phenomenon that has been on steroids Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia bubblepedia homes4aussies leith van onselen real estate united states Tidal Report The Elephant in the Room Posted by Tracey Watts on November 21 2010 3 Comments Issue 98 It has always been immensely frustrating that Australian officials not only emphatically deny that Australia has a property bubble but also refuse to engage on the issue The question of whether Australia has a housing bubble is generally dispatched with the chronic undersupply argument together with the Australia is different Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia demographia report real estate Tidal Report 2 Oct 2010 The Irish Canary in the Coal Mine Posted by Tracey Watts on October 2 2010 8 Comments Issue 91 The once roaring Celtic

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/real-estate/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Tidal Report – 26 Jul 2009 – Animal Spirits : third wave group
    and understood the world s deep complexities that people have rational expectations We have consistently espoused the view that financial markets are driven by the psychology of investors Herd mentality and irrational exuberance or pessimism are common features of financial markets yet inexplicably are not recognised by macro economists in their modelling of the economic world Paul de Grauwe believes this is why mainstream economic models and predictions are so flawed We need a new science of macro economics A science that starts from the assumption that individuals have severe cognitive limitations that they do not understand much about the complexities of the world in which they live This lack of understanding creates biased beliefs and collective movements of euphoria when agents underestimate risk followed by collective depression in which perceptions of risk are dramatically increased These collective movements turn uncorrelated risks into highly correlated ones Such views have of course been fortified by the financial crisis and subsequent global recession This theme is continued in the recently published Animal Spirits by US economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller who state that the recent crisis was caused by individuals and their changing levels of confidence temptations envy resentment illusions and other such intangibles It was these factors they say that prompted Americans to pay small fortunes for houses in cornfields led others to finance such purchases and drove the Dow Jones to a peak of more than 14 000 points and to a crash to less than 7 500 barely a year later As we have discussed previously one of the results of the crisis has been a massive deleveraging around the world as businesses and households reduce debt As an example of the explosion of credit the world experienced in the boom leading up to the current crisis multi national manufacturer General Electric was actual making 50 per cent of its profit from its finance arm GE Capital as opposed to its traditional core business Like GE the growth in the US economy was led by consumer spending as a result of rising asset prices and easier access to credit Consumer spending and residential investment increased from 67 per cent of GDP in 1980 to 75 per cent in 2007 the household saving rate fell from 10 per cent of disposable income to zero and household debt surged from 67 per cent of disposable income to 132 per cent The dramatic collapse in asset prices caused by the financial crisis has triggered a shift to thrift consequently plunging the US economy into a very deep recession and dramatically changing the composition of its economy Americans now save more than 5 per cent of their after tax income still well below the post war average but a massive improvement from just a year ago The consequent reduction in US consumption has dragged down world economic growth Australia has so far been insulated by continued Chinese demand for our raw materials and the massive government stimulus We must bear in mind

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-26-jul-2009-animal-spirits/ (2013-02-03)
    Open archived version from archive

  • david gruen : third wave group
    taking it up an impressive 32 per cent since the March 10 low This rise however is less significant Filed under tidal reports Tagged with david gruen debt dirk bezemer economics paul de grauwe psychology recession robert shiller steve keen stockmarket united states subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/david-gruen/ (2013-02-03)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Tidal Report – 7 Jun 2009 – The Recession we aren’t having . . . : third wave group
    trade figures the first month of the next quarter show we still have cause for concern According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Australia posted a 91 million trade shortfall due to declining exports of coal iron ore and wheat The April trade figures the first deficit in nine months were a surprising result coming after a revised 2 3 billion trade surplus in March and forecasts of a 1 7 billion surplus for April Exports fell 11 per cent with non rural exports declining 15 per cent Sales revenues for coal and iron ore fell 18 and 21 per cent respectively Yet the Prime Minister and Treasurer barely mentioned the crucial export contributor to Australia s statistical escape What we have done today is avoid a technical recession said Kevin Rudd conveniently forgetting his mea culpa of little more than a month ago Wayne Swan maintained that the increase in household spending was the standout figure in the GDP result Both have put the perceived soft landing down to the government s fiscal stimulus The frightening possibility for Australia is that the government actually believes their big borrowing fiscal stimulus rather than the world beating export performance is most responsible for preventing the nation being dragged fully into the global recession There is a real argument that the government s spending is incredibly dangerous for Australia now and in the future Henry Ergas Chairman of Concept Economics wrote a thought provoking article in The Australian on Friday entitled Don t confuse excess with success He argued that in reality the efficacy of the government s fiscal spending is far from established and described the past 12 months spending as the greatest deterioration in the quality of public expenditure since the Whitlam government Mr Ergas continues by saying the rigorous cost benefit analysis of spending appears to be evaporating in the rush to spend He maintains that instead of boosting the economy s productive potential investing in programs whose costs exceed their benefits is certain to make an economy poorer He does not want to demonise debt however stating that incurring debt to fund genuinely productive investment is one thing a strategy of deliberately borrowing too much rather than too little in order to spend too much rather than too little is another This causes the economy to lose twice Initially from the waste of resources directed towards poorly judged spending programs followed by the distortions induced by the taxes needed to fund them Ultimately policy is shaped neither by facts nor by ideas but by ideas about facts It is this that makes the claims being drawn from this week s GDP numbers so very dangerous Of course the Government will want to bask in the glory of the moment but what it must understand is this that once unrealistic expectations about what government can achieve have set in it is only needless pain and disappointment that can follow So with all the GDP and recession talk this week

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-7-jun-2009-the-recession-we-arent-having/ (2013-02-03)
    Open archived version from archive

  • Tidal Report – 3 May 2009 – It’s a Bear Market : third wave group
    stockmarket and the economy During recessions the stockmarket will usually bottom six to nine months before the economy shows signs that it is on the mend It follows therefore that if the lows of early March signalled the end of the bear market the economy should be showing signs of recovery towards the end of the year Given that banks are usually affected early in a recession coupled with their continued gloomy outlook this looks increasingly unlikely The danger for the stock market is that the recession is still in its early days which makes the likelihood of March being the start of a new bull market pretty slim Not only do the banks financial results provide insight into the economy more particularly their commentary provides coal face insight into how they consider the recession will play out NAB CEO Cameron Clyne expects small and medium sized businesses to feel the full effect of the economic downturn through to 2010 and for unemployment to peak in 2011 It will be at this time that the bad and doubtful debts that NAB has provided for will move from its business to its consumer lending books ANZ CEO Mike Smith said his result was credible given current global market conditions which the bank has forecast to worsen The recessionary cycle comes in three stages the first is the big ticket the larger end of town and it picks on the business models that don t work anymore they are the ones that are highly leveraged and high profile names examples are ABC Learning Centres Babcock and Brown Storm Financial Allco Finance The second is the middle market and the third is the small to medium enterprises and the consumer side of the economy which is driven by unemployment and that happens as a result of the first two stages In good times badly run companies can make money but right now they can t Good companies will still make money but poor companies will hit the wall I think for all the banks in Australia the credit quality is not as good as it should be At this point we are only just at the start of the second phase Last week we referred to Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens comment that any reasonable person would come to the conclusion Australia was in a recession Mike Smith referring to his much earlier comments about the bleak outlook for the Australian economy went on to cheekily say As you know I have been a reasonable person for quite some time The banks are not alone in anticipating the recession ending well into 2010 or even 2011 George Soros a high profile American investor famous for almost breaking the Bank of England in 1992 by shorting the GBP against the USD is currently the 29th richest person in the world Yesterday on Bloomberg he had the following to say about the current market moves It s a bear market rally because we have not

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-3-may-2009-its-a-bear-market/ (2013-02-03)
    Open archived version from archive

  • george soros : third wave group
    US giant Chrysler going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy and locally disappointing earnings from ANZ Banking Group National Australia Bank and Macquarie Group In Australia the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with economy george soros mike smith paul volker recession stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/george-soros/ (2013-02-03)
    Open archived version from archive



  •