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  • asia : third wave group
    finally pointed toward a probable downturn in the short term direction of the markets In our previous report we stated that for the US S P 500 Filed under tidal reports Tagged with asia china debt japan stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/asia/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 1 Feb 2009 – Property Anecdotes : third wave group
    s second largest economy Industrial production figures showed a drop of 9 6 per cent for the month of December This is the worst month on month fall since the index commenced in 1953 and comes on top of the November fall of 8 5 per cent and a forecast fall of 9 1 per cent for January Although this data is startling in itself Japan also saw its December unemployment rate increase by 0 5 per cent to 4 4 per cent the largest rise in 42 years and household spending fall 4 6 per cent a troubling trilogy The release of the Japanese economic data comes ahead of its GDP numbers which are to be released in a fortnights time The GDP data is currently predicted to show that Japan s economy contracted by an annualised 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008 The widely expressed concern over Australia s connectedness to China has cast the fact that Japan is Australia s largest export customer into the shadows The collapse of Japanese manufacturing as indicated by the dramatic falls in industrial production does not bode well for Australian exporters particularly in the mineral and energy sector Adding further fuel to the global recession fire was the release of the US fourth quarter GDP figures on Friday night which showed a much anticipated and concerning 3 8 per cent contraction Australia also released certain data this week which gives further insight into how the economy has been travelling Release of Australian residential property market data showed a continued fall and or stagnation in the median prices of both apartments and houses across most capital cities Housing approvals also showed a dramatic 30 per cent approx fall during 2008 which additionally indicates demand for housing is continuing to decrease Forward looking commentary from the property industry was particularly bearish for the previous star performing southeast Queensland SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said prices were expected to continue to soften in most capital cities over the coming two quarters with Perth and southeast Queensland expected to see the biggest fallout There is more stock for sale in southeast Queensland than there is in Sydney and the population is only 60 per cent the size of Sydney This implies we are going to see some significant house price declines in southeast Queensland throughout 2009 We seem to have entered into a cycle of higher unemployment If we continue to see significant crisis it will likely flow on to default rates and a further softening of demand for housing Anecdotal evidence of the continued slowdown in the property market can be found in many places A courier in Cairns for example recently commented that deliveries of property sale contracts have reduced from 130 per month to 3 per month For an insight into the future direction of the stock market however it must be remembered that economic data is reflected in the indices well before it is released Analysis of

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-1-feb-2009-property-anecdotes/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 2 Aug 2009 – Some brief notes on a global crisis : third wave group
    by the markets hardly paints a rosy picture As Stephen Long on ABC s Lateline said it really is hard to call the crisis definitively over At best he continued you could say that instead of going from bad to worse we are now going from worse to bad The US economy is still contracting business investment is still down and consumption which had improved mildly is starting to go backwards again Housing is still a basket case with one in eleven mortgages delinquent and 30 per cent of homes in negative equity The best that could be said is that we are stabilising at a very low base So what has the government or more specifically the prime minister been saying this week Much has been made of the 6 000 word Kevin Rudd essay entitled Pain on the Road to Recovery It has generally been pilloried and dismissed as an extended election campaign brochure Terry McCrann referred to it as sludge with portentous statements of the bleeding obvious that drift into ringing schoolboy debating rhetoric The Weekend Australian s editorial referred to the economic analysis within the essay as dangerously simplistic and that we deserve a more nuanced effort from the prime minister as he attempts to explain Australia s experience within extraordinary global events Among the many caustic critiques of the prime minister s work however there is a most surprising defender Noted economist Professor Steven Keen who is famous for his criticism of government economic policy agrees with the majority of Kevin Rudd s key explanations for the economic crisis His analysis of the Rudd essay is directed towards the economic arguments and provides a fascinating insight not only into Professor Keen s views but gives Kevin Rudd s essay some overlooked gravitas So make yourself

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-2-aug-2009-some-brief-notes-on-a-global-crisis/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 19 Jul 2009 – Economic Folly : third wave group
    borrowed too much and saved too little This cannot continue indefinitely and one day the music will stop and the painful process by which poor policies are repudiated debt is purged and savings rebuilt i e a recession is salutary unavoidable and lengthy Stimulus is simply a doomed attempt to reinflate the collapsed bubbles of prior failed intervention Leithner argues that proactive fiscal policy does not replace spending by individuals and businesses It actually discourages private initiative suppresses productive investment and creates the damaging cycle of boom and bust Stimulus in short doesn t make things better Quite the contrary it makes things worse What happens when the superficial stimulus fades and the underlying reality resurfaces When its inflationary consequences become apparent And who ll reverse the deficits and repay the debt One day Australians will understand the horrific cost of Poindexterism Ruddism Well before then the realistic dejection that a rerun of the 1970s is in the cards will replace the euphoria that a repetition of the 1930s has been avoided And it ll all be for naught very few Australians realise that the losses sustained in stock and bond markets in the 1970s were more severe and extended than those suffered in the 1930s The most interesting part of Leithner s newsletter is his use of Crusoe Economics to demonstrate his arguments on productivity While a discussion of Crusoe Economics is beyond the scope of this report in brief it follows the economic rise and fall of three generations of Robinson Crusoe The first generation is Crusoe I the shipwrecked individual arriving on an island with nothing With time he is able to build a certain level of productivity and wealth through frugal living working and saving Crusoe II inherits the wealth and productive knowledge of his father Like his father Crusoe II is frugal resourceful diligent and intelligent and is able to preserve and extend his father s legacy Crusoe III however being too used to the good things in life regards labour as demeaning and frugality as unnecessary You can see where this is heading Leithner s view is that we are at the Crusoe III also referred to as Organisation Man end of the curve Essentially The Robinson Crusoe Ethic promotes lengthy time horizons entrepreneurial behaviour productive capital and a series of virtues that promote prosperity and liberty In sharp contrast the ethics of Organisation Man promote short time horizons parasitic behaviour dependence and poverty Leithner uses the Crusoe Economics analogy to demonstrate how the contemporary economic financial and political mainstream is not just erroneous in its approach to pumping up consumption it is diametrically wrong Consumption is a consequence of production and production is a cause of prosperity that is the more one saves and successfully invests the more one can produce in turn the more one produces the more one can save invest and consume and therefore the more prosperous one becomes Ultimately it s saving investment and production not consumption that drives

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-19-jul-2009-economic-folly/ (2013-02-03)
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  • chris leithner : third wave group
    Leithner argues with great passion that Kevin Rudd is not as he claims an economic conservative but is in fact an economic illiterate Leithner s Filed under tidal reports Tagged with chris leithner crusoe economics kevin rudd stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/chris-leithner/ (2013-02-03)
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  • peter o’malley : third wave group
    ownership rate of around 70 percent is in fact one of the highest rates in the world There appears to be an Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia cameron clyne louis christopher neil jenman peter o malley real estate scott pape subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/peter-omalley/ (2013-02-03)
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  • tim wood : third wave group
    That is after more than two years of generally upwards movement the major trend of the markets is still down a view Filed under general posts Tagged with market history stockmarket technical analysis tim wood subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/tim-wood/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 15 Feb 2009 – Looking to History : third wave group
    they have to sell Surprisingly a very similar emotive response is felt by professional money managers who fear that by missing out they will lag the market and their performance to benchmark will suffer While they don t exactly enjoy losing money during market falls it is preferable to sitting on the sidelines and sacrificing gains We believe we are at an important point in the current bear market As we have mentioned previously our bias is that a retest of the November low is highly likely before the end of this bear market What is not known at this stage however is the extent of the rally that will occur before this retest takes place Indeed it may have already occurred One thing is certain if the market does rally a large amount of desperate money will be thrown at it by people afraid of missing out on the next bull market It will be this kind of behaviour that will indicate a final low has NOT yet occurred Ironically a strong rally from here would be almost identical to the market s behaviour following the 1929 crash In the US for example the market made a bottom in November 1929 rallied over 50 per cent peaked in April 1930 and then fell until it reached its final low in July 1932 i e over two years of decline At the time of the rally the press government spokesmen and Wall Street were saying the economy was turning the corner Herbert Hoover passed a big stimulus program and a bank program remarkably similar to the current US Treasury Secretary s plan That is not to say that the economy is in better or worse shape than during the Great Depression Nor that the market will fall for the same two years The market however does look likely to fall or at least lack direction for up to another year History mightn t necessarily repeat but it does rhyme Yet many of today s investors are not particularly aware of market history The past five or ten years are often the most people are consciously aware of in terms of movements Additionally the most commonly touted investment advice has been to buy and hold for the long term with no regard to market timing Even in this situation long term usually refers to at best only the last 20 years The extraordinariness of the current market however has had the financial commentators dusting off progressively more historic market data In their bid to find relevant comparisons data has been obtained firstly from the 1970 s then the 1960 s and finally the Great Depression Buying and holding in a bear market creates desperate rallies which prevents people from aligning themselves with the big trend of the market by staying defensive They are afraid of losing an opportunity and get mesmerised by the press and market commentators calling the bottom Saying that is the bear market over While this was discussed

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-15-feb-2009-looking-to-history/ (2013-02-03)
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