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  • nouriel roubini : third wave group
    Roubini Talks About U Posted by Tracey Watts on April 5 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 20 Four weeks of positive performance from the S P ASX 200 has seen the index rise nearly 20 per cent from the bear market low of 3120 on March 10 Quite a bear market rally It is in fact the 7th rally since the start of the bear market in November 2007 three of which Filed under tidal reports Tagged with economy nouriel roubini psychology stockmarket united states subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/nouriel-roubini/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 13 Apr 2009 – The Onion Hits the Nail on the Head : third wave group
    back as July last year had the answer Recession Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In WASHINGTON A panel of top business leaders testified before Congress about the worsening recession Monday demanding the government provide Americans with a new irresponsible and largely illusory economic bubble in which to invest What America needs right now is not more talk and long term strategy but a concrete way to create more imaginary wealth in the very immediate future said Thomas Jenkins CFO of the Boston area Jenkins Financial Group a bubble based investment firm We are in a crisis and that crisis demands an unviable short term solution The current economic woes brought on by the collapse of the so called housing bubble are considered the worst to hit investors since the equally untenable dot com bubble burst in 2001 According to investment experts now that the option of making millions of dollars in a short time with imaginary profits from bad real estate deals has disappeared the need for another spontaneous make believe source of wealth has never been more urgent Perhaps the new bubble could have something to do with watching movies on cell phones said investment banker Greg Carlisle of the New York firm Carlisle Shaloe Graves Or say medicine or shipping Or clouds The manner of bubble isn t important just as long as it creates a hugely overvalued market based on nothing more than whimsical fantasy and saddled with the potential for a long term accrual of debts that will never be paid back thereby unleashing a ripple effect that will take nearly a decade to correct The U S economy cannot survive on sound investments alone Carlisle added Congress is currently considering an emergency economic stimulus measure tentatively called the Bubble Act which would order the Federal Reserve to begin encouraging massive private investment in some fantastical financial scheme in order to get the nation s false economy back on track Current bubbles being considered include the handheld electronics bubble the undersea mining rights bubble and the decorative office plant bubble Additional options include speculative trading in fairy dust which lobbyists point out has the advantage of being an entirely imaginary commodity to begin with and a bubble based around a hypothetical to be determined product called widgets The most support thus far has gone toward the so called paper bubble In this appealing scenario various privately issued pieces of paper backed by government tax incentives but entirely worthless would temporarily be given grossly inflated artificial values and sold to unsuspecting stockholders by greedy and unscrupulous entrepreneurs Little pieces of paper are the next big thing speculator Joanna Nadir of Falls Church VA said Just keep telling yourself that If enough people can be talked into thinking it s legitimate it will become temporarily true Demand for a new investment bubble began months ago when the subprime mortgage bubble burst and left the business world without a suitable source of pretend income But as more

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-13-apr-2009-the-onion-hits-the-nail-on-the-head/ (2013-02-03)
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  • interest rates : third wave group
    Debt Posted by Tracey Watts on February 8 2009 2 Comments Issue 12 Markets around the world are still lacking direction All markets followed are still well within the trading ranges that have been defined over the last couple of months Our bias for the US markets is still for a further leg down before the final low of the bear market is reached In the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia interest rates john maynard keynes mark latham milton friedman stimulus stockmarket Previous Page subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/interest-rates/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 31 May 2009 – The Budget vs the Economy : third wave group
    was the sharpest drop on record More concerning was that the businesses surveyed expect to further curtail investment in the year ahead This gives weight to the forecast in the recent budget papers of an 18 5 per cent slump in business investment These figures are particularly alarming in regards to employment If for example new office towers and unit blocks aren t being built and new manufacturing and mining investment is declining it means jobs are not only NOT being created they are in fact being lost and will continue to be lost The Private Capital Expenditure data also adds weight to expectations that next week s GDP figures will confirm Australia is in recession GDP for the December quarter was a 0 5 per cent contraction With a consensus forming that the March quarter will produce a figure of a 0 2 per cent contraction this will finally seal the deal on the fact that Australia is in recession There is always a chance that a statistical quirk will spoil the recession scenario but the 8 9 per cent fall in business capital expenditure makes this unlikely Interestingly the consumer does not appear to be reining in spending as one would expect in a recession This follows our thoughts from last week where we pointed out that if still employed the situation in many households has actually improved in recent times due to interest rate cuts falls in petrol prices and government cash handouts Additionally the Reserve Bank has pointed out that Australia s commodity based exports have held up remarkably well in volume terms However weaker income and production measures are likely to again drag down overall GDP This has contributed to the contraction in the Australian economy being nowhere near the free fall in growth being experienced in most OECD countries Looking further out the Reserve Bank and Treasury forecasts suggest that the economy will continue to contract in the June quarter with neutral or slight growth in the last quarter of the year If this forecast materialises it would result in a significantly milder downturn than other wealthy nations and would in fact be milder than the recessions we had in the early 1980s and 1990s What is intriguing about Australia s apparent immunity to the global financial chaos is that Australia s budget has deteriorated more sharply than in the previous two recessions So why is the budget deteriorating much more dramatically than the economy is at this stage This is partly explained by the volatility in Australia s commodity export prices which have recently been through an extraordinary boom bust cycle Like Norway with its offshore oil revenues Australia should have stashed away more of the bounty from its China boom for times like now Neither side of politics wants to talk about this as it exposes the Howard Costello government for having driven the budget into structural deficit during the boom and the Rudd government for making it worse During the week

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-31-may-2009-the-budget-vs-the-economy/ (2013-02-03)
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  • private capital expenditure : third wave group
    9 5 per cent in April In Australia the rises were 1 8 per cent in May 6 per cent in April and 7 1 Filed under tidal reports Tagged with budget economy international monetary fund private capital expenditure psychology recession short selling stimulus stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/private-capital-expenditure/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 23 Apr 2009 – The R Word by Kevin Rudd : third wave group
    recession in 75 years means it s inevitable that Australia too will be dragged into recession This was closely followed by Glenn Stevens the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia speaking at a luncheon on Tuesday Whether or not the next GDP statistic due in early June shows another decline I think the reasonable person looking at all the information available now would come to the conclusion that the Australian economy too is in recession Mr Stevens said Echoing sentiments we have consistently stated he went on to say that We cannot achieve effortless prosperity either on the back of ever escalating mineral prices or simply by bidding up the prices of our houses It is as well to realise that This capitulation was followed by the release of the IMF s latest World Economic Outlook in which they continued to reduce their forecasts for world economic growth The IMF estimated that the world economy would contract by 1 3 per cent this year followed by growth of a weak 1 9 per cent in 2010 However the alarming story behind these headline numbers is that advanced economies are running significantly behind with a forecast contraction of a stunning 3 8 per cent this year and zero growth in 2010 Such a forecast is particularly significant as this will be the first year of negative world growth since World War II Although the IMF does not have a great track record with their forecasts they have certainly poured cold water onto the view that a bottoming and recovery in the global economy is underway The IMF states that recessions associated with both a financial crisis and a synchronised downturn as we are currently experiencing are usually severe and long lasting The IMF found the average length of synchronised recessions to be 40 per cent longer than other recessions This finding was based on the synchronised recessions of 1975 1980 1992 but did not include the Great Depression or any recessions prior to that Although stockmarkets tend to bottom six to nine months prior to the end of economic recessions it is worth noting that the bear markets associated with those recessions lasted five two and two years respectively Our current bear market has run only 16 months Michael Boskin a former chairman of the US President s Council of Economic Advisers has also warned of the economic consequences of this recession We will not get out of this mess completely any time soon Sometimes strong recoveries follow recessions but recovery following financial crises is always immensely painful time consuming and traumatic Additionally economists Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have argued that major financial crises of the past century have generally lasted five or more years with most of these crises affecting only a country or region This time however virtually every economy is affected and the banking crisis is global Even though the IMF considers this recession the global economy s most synchronised downturn forecasts for individual countries vary

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-23-apr-2009-the-r-word-by-kevin-rudd/ (2013-02-03)
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  • max keiser : third wave group
    of a brand new government is rapidly evaporating as they prove to be just as incapable of repairing the economic damage as the previous government Filed under general posts Tagged with ireland max keiser subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/max-keiser/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 22 Feb 2009 – The Financial Pyramid : third wave group
    single quarter In addition to Japan s GDP announcement the weakening Asian economy was also reflected in January s export data This was particularly evident for China the world s newest and largest global player Unfortunately for them the Chinese depend largely on Western consumer demand and the numbers show how that dependence is hurting their economy In January China s exports sank by 17 1 per cent year over year the second straight month of declines At the same time China s imports plunged dramatically down more than 43 per cent from January 2008 Further evidence of the stalling Asian economy is demonstrated by South Korea and Taiwan having both reported export declines of 33 per cent and 44 per cent respectively The IMF has now downgraded its 2009 Asian growth forecast to 2 7 per cent from a previous 5 5 per cent Officially growth is now weaker than during the 1998 currency crisis So particularly in terms of movements the vicious bear market continues From an investing point of view however nothing is gained in continuing to point out the negative economic news Markets always move well before the economic news is released and investing based on current conditions is like using the rear view mirror Yet while economic conditions are always foretold by the markets one must remain aware of the dire financial contraction that is occurring around the world This is no ordinary recession It is the unwinding of an unparalleled debt bubble But what exactly is meant by such a statement While this bubble is constantly referred to as unprecedented just how big did it get The following link from The Guardian is an illustrative demonstration of the size of the bubble We thought you might find it illuminating not to mention alarming that

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-22-feb-2009-the-financial-pyramid/ (2013-02-03)
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