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  • john talbott : third wave group
    easily summarised The opposition believes the government has set off on a reckless spending program putting upward pressure on interest rates and lacking an exit strategy Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging john talbott stimulus subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/john-talbott/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 21 Jun 2009 – Will we alone avoid the housing bust? : third wave group
    with only the top 5 per cent earning more than 177 000 So the median price of 169 000 equates to a ratio of 3 36 returning the relative amounts of housing and income back to the historical ratio A quick glance at the real estate sections of any paper will of course tell you how expensive Australian property is Confirmation is provided in the latest report on global housing affordability by Performance Urban Planning using third quarter 2008 data The report concludes that Australia has the most unaffordable housing of all the nations surveyed The author of the report ranks housing affordability by use of the Median House Price to Median Household Income ratio Affordable is 3 or less the historical norm Moderately Unaffordable is 3 1 to 4 Seriously Unaffordable is 4 1 to 5 and Severely Unaffordable is 5 1 plus Australia wins the gold medal at 6 3 New Zealand was 5 7 Ireland 5 4 and the UK 5 3 Severe falls have subsequently occurred in the UK and Ireland Of the 27 Australian markets analysed an astonishing 24 are rated Severely Unaffordable and the remaining 3 are in the lower category of Seriously Unaffordable Out of interest those three were Wagga Wagga Ballarat and Bendigo The highest ranking area was the Sunshine Coast with the median price being 496 800 compared to a median income of 51 900 giving a rating of 9 3 Major capital cities were as follows Brisbane 410 000 65 100 6 3 Melbourne 435 000 61 300 7 1 Sydney 529 000 64 000 8 3 Perth 435 000 67 800 6 4 The report makes the point that in recent decades the Median Multiple has been remarkably similar among the nations surveyed with median house prices being generally 3 or less times median household incomes This was certainly the experience in Australia during the 1980 s and 90 s Currently however of the 60 housing markets ranked as Severely Unaffordable by the survey one third are found in Australia Two of the top three are in Queensland being the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast Unlike the other national markets in the Survey Australia has thus far been able to avoid material house price declines It seems likely that sooner or later the inherent instability and unsustainability that characterises bubbles will lead to house price declines in Australia However were it possible for Australia to retain its highly over valued house prices there would still be a significant cost Future generations would pay far more for housing than in the past and Australia s relative standard of living would decline Last week there was enormous hullabaloo over a 0 1 per cent mortgage rate increase What on earth is going to happen when rates go up 3 to 4 per cent or even more Category tidal reports Tags demographia report housing affordability neil jenman real estate stockmarket Comments One Response to Tidal Report 21 Jun 2009 Will we

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-21-jun-2009-will-we-alone-avoid-the-housing-bust/ (2013-02-03)
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  • neil jenman : third wave group
    we alone avoid the housing bust Posted by Tracey Watts on June 21 2009 1 Comment Issue 31 After rallying for 14 weeks markets around the world appear to be commencing their overdue retracement If the top of June 12 in the S P ASX 200 of 4079 4 holds then we would expect the market to retrace to at least the 3 450 to 3 700 range For the moment it certainly looks like the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with demographia report housing affordability neil jenman real estate stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/neil-jenman/ (2013-02-03)
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  • economy : third wave group
    have it by a good margin What puzzles us here at Third Wave is what Filed under tidal reports Tagged with economy eichengreen and o rourke great depression hugh hendry Tidal Report 16 Aug 2009 Australian Story Posted by Tracey Watts on August 16 2009 1 Comment Issue 39 We spend a lot of time using the Tidal Report to comment on global economies and as an Australian firm interested in the plight of the Australian economy and market this could be considered a little non specific There are several reasons why we give what seems like disproportionate column centimetres to non Australian economic Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia china economy steve keen united states Tidal Report 2 Aug 2009 Some brief notes on a global crisis Posted by Tracey Watts on August 2 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 37 A curious thing has been happening this week the government has been talking down the recovery First the prime minister s essay followed by comments from the finance minister Lindsay Tanner Curious because the government has continually emphasised the role of confidence and in the past accused the opposition of being unpatriotic when talking Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia economy kevin rudd stephen long steve keen stockmarket terry mccrann Tidal Report 31 May 2009 The Budget vs the Economy Posted by Tracey Watts on May 31 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 28 Wall Street has had another positive week producing its third consecutive monthly rise along with Australian and other world indices The S P 500 index rose 5 3 per cent in May and 9 5 per cent in April In Australia the rises were 1 8 per cent in May 6 per cent in April and 7 1 Filed under tidal reports Tagged with budget economy international monetary fund private capital expenditure psychology recession short selling stimulus stockmarket Tidal Report 17 May 2009 Economic Forecasting Alchemy Posted by Tracey Watts on May 17 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 26 On 12 November 2008 the ABC s Kerry O Brien was interviewing Treasurer Wayne Swan O Brien So let me hear in plain English that the budget is within a hair s breadth of going into deficit It seems silly that anybody would bother to argue that proposition Will you accept going into deficit if you have Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia budget debt deficit economy europe great depression intergenerational report kerry o brien recession stockmarket treasury wayne swan Tidal Report 10 May 2009 Britain a Third World Country Posted by Tracey Watts on May 10 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 25 The dramatic rally seen in most stockmarkets around the world continued again this week after only the briefest of pauses in April In Australia the S P ASX 200 rose 4 6 per cent to 3 941 7 within striking distance of the psychologically important 4 000 level for the first time in six months Since the rally began in Filed

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/economy/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
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  • foreclosuregate : third wave group
    will probably carry on even if Ireland implodes much like the world continued after Iceland blew itself up eighteen months ago What Filed under tidal reports Tagged with employment foreclosuregate jon stewart karl denninger mike shedlock united states subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/foreclosuregate/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 30 Aug 2009 – The facts behind the headlines : third wave group
    growth in underlying demand within the present level of housing supply That s right in spite of the fact that the 2006 Census found 830 000 vacant dwellings the forecast shortage of housing is instead based in large part on the incidence of homelessness When compared with the previous Census in 2001 the number of unoccupied dwellings actually increased from 717 000 a rise of 15 67 per cent This compares with a rise of 8 per cent in the number of private dwellings 6 per cent in the number of households and a 5 8 per cent rise in the population i e a dramatic increase in vacant houses Additionally the average number of persons per household remained the same at 2 78 ABS Census figures show there are 8 3 million occupied houses in Australia yet there are 10 150 000 street addresses in the Australia Posts PAF data base Many of those will of course be business addresses and holiday homes etc but it gives some support to the 830 000 private unoccupied dwellings recorded on the 2006 Census night So what does this mean This implies that the market dynamics could turn out to be very different than is currently expected by mainstream undersupply thinking If prices fall substantially many owners who have kept properties out of the market may be motivated to bring them onto the market and the undersupply could evaporate It is apparent then just how important the truth of this undersupply is to the maintenance of property prices as we follow the deleveraging that is occurring worldwide And deleverage we will From 1996 to 2007 Australia has taken on a massive amount of debt Credit card debt increased 469 per cent household debt 340 per cent corporate debt 450 per cent and net foreign debt 200 per cent The other factor that will heavily influence the future direction of house prices is the level of unemployment and again one must be careful with statistics Since the Global Financial Crisis hit in September 2008 the official measure of unemployment has risen from 4 3 to 5 8 per cent Unemployment level forecasts for this downturn have recently been revised down by a number of economic commentators and the apparent slow rise in unemployment has been used to justify the current optimism on the state of the Australian economy In July the ABS survey which is used as the basis for the official unemployment figures registered a rise in unemployment of only 900 Yet Centrelink figures showed an extra 22 000 people started receiving the Newstart allowance that same month How can this be Amazingly the official unemployment figures are not based on people who are receiving Social Security but on an ABS monthly survey of only 2 300 households Even the number of people on Newstart Allowance must itself understate the real level of unemployment as it does not account for people who are ineligible for benefits or who have suffered severe cutbacks

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-30-aug-2009-the-facts-behind-the-headlines/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 14 Jun 2009 – Herd Mentality : third wave group
    receiving very little attention figures released this week by China showed the rate of decline of exports on an annualised basis increasing from 22 6 per cent to 26 4 per cent Imports also weakened falling at an annual rate of 25 2 per cent Furthermore a leap in long term government bond yields over the past few weeks shows markets fear that the huge sums of public money being pumped into economies will eventually fuel inflation Fears of Government s ability to meet their obligations and the level of demand for public borrowings are also pushing rates up Last week US 10 year bond yields went very close to 4 per cent having nearly doubled since January It will be a major psychological event for markets if the yield breaks through that level a negative for all asset values This is also starting to play out domestically Much hysteria accompanied the announcement by the CBA of a 0 1 per cent hike in home loan rates The Government was indignant Australians have every right to be furious with the decision by the Commonwealth Bank to increase its home loan rate hindering the efforts of the Government the Reserve Bank and the business community to stimulate the economy during this global recession the Prime Minister said The real reason behind the decision was completely overlooked as though the bank did it out of spite CBA funds its lending activities from a mix of retail deposits 55 per cent and short term and long term wholesale funding 45 per cent The head of retail products said CBA was now rolling over long term wholesale funding lines at 13 times the cost that prevailed before the financial crisis The 0 2 per cent margin of the cash rate over the bank s average rate for deposits had almost disappeared This reflects the intense competition among banks for deposits Every three month period our average cost of funding is increasing by around 10 basis points Michael Cant said Meanwhile Australians continue to borrow for housing with their ears pinned back in spite of the obvious danger of rising interest rates The First Home Owners Boost FOHB is claimed to have been a huge success First Home Buyers received 28 per cent of all housing loans issued in April THE HIGHEST RESULT ON RECORD This contrasts with the 16 8 per cent rate a year ago when the economy had peaked What is particularly disturbing is the level of borrowing The average first home loan was 283k in April compared to 237k at the same time last year First timers are borrowing 26k more on average than repeat borrowers since the introduction of the FOHB In 2001 they borrowed 10k less Clearly the FOHB has only served to inflate prices and people are rushing in for fear of missing out This has all occurred in the aftermath of what was described freely as a financial tsunami with collapsing business investment rising unemployment the start

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-14-jun-2009-herd-mentality/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 14 Dec 2008 – The End of Days : third wave group
    in the mining industry This week saw Rio Tinto announce several measures in an attempt to reduce its huge debt burden principally 14 000 jobs to be cut world wide a US5 billion reduction in capital expenditure and the sale of assets not previously for sale To put it in perspective the job losses amount to 7 per cent of Rio Tinto s work force Such liabilities are the main reason for BHP withdrawing its takeover bid It s not just the Australian mining sector facing employment difficulties ANZ CEO Mike Smith announced a 2 per cent cut of its workforce 800 jobs and made a prediction that Australia s unemployment rate would hit 9 per cent during the downturn That is of course double the present rate In comparison the official government forecast is that unemployment will reach 5 75 per cent by June 2010 still an increase of 1 35 per cent from the current rate Shifting focus from Australia to the other side of the world an intriguing commentator on the world s economic woes appeared in The Australian this week I was in Dublin recently and had a very real sense I d been invited to the last days of the Roman Empire As far as I could work out everyone had a Rolls Royce Phantom and a coat made from something that s now extinct And then there were the women Everyone appeared to be drunk on naked hedonism I ve never seen so much jus being drizzled onto so many improbable things none of which was potted herring It was like Barcelona but with beer And as I careered from bar to bar all I could think was Jesus can t they see what s coming Ireland is tiny Its population is smaller than New Zealand s so how could the Irish ever generate the cash for so many trips to the hairdressers so many lobsters and so many Rollers And how now as they become the first country in Europe to go officially into recession can they not see the financial meteorite coming Why are they not all at home singing mournful songs I think mainly this is because the government is not telling the truth It s painting Gordon Brown as a global economic messiah and fiddling about with VAT pretending that the coming recession will be bad But that it can deal with it I don t think it can I have spoken to a couple of pretty senior bankers in the past couple of weeks and their story is rather different They don t refer to the looming problems as being like 1992 or even 1929 They talk about a total financial meltdown They talk about the End of Days It is impossible for someone who scored a U in his economics A level to grapple with the consequences of all this but I m told that in simple terms money will cease to function as a meaningful commodity Even

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-14-dec-2008-the-end-of-days/ (2013-02-03)
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