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  • sinclair davidson : third wave group
    has stated on many occasions that without the stimulus untold jobs would have been lost and Australia s economy would have entered a recession Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging great depression oecd sinclair davidson sovereign debt stimulus terry mccrann subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/sinclair-davidson/ (2013-02-03)
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  • debt : third wave group
    of the longest debt fuelled market bubbles since the Roaring Twenties The crisis that followed began in the US credit markets but quickly moved to the rest of the world leading to the Global Financial Filed under tidal reports Tagged with debt global financial crisis steve keen stimulus united states Tidal Report 29 Nov 2009 The View from Burj Dubai Posted by Tracey Watts on November 29 2009 1 Comment Issue 53 All eyes and commentary in recent months have been on the decline of the US dollar with the almost universal view that it was going to collapse completely As recently as this week sentiment indicators showed 97 per cent US dollar bears That is an astonishingly high reading A view that one sided Filed under tidal reports Tagged with currency debt deleveraging dubai europe mike shedlock Tidal Report 22 Nov 2009 The Mother of all Bubbles Posted by Tracey Watts on November 22 2009 1 Comment Issue 52 The rise of equity markets commodities and almost every other asset in the world since March of this year is a bubble of even greater magnitude than the housing bubble that burst in the US in 2006 the stockmarket bubble that burst in 2007 and the commodities bubble that burst in 2008 This Filed under tidal reports Tagged with bubble debt economy interest rates kenneth davidson nouriel roubini Tidal Report 8 Nov 2009 What a Success Posted by Tracey Watts on November 8 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 50 As the rest of the world is deleveraging Australia is gearing up Whilst without doubt the Global Financial Crisis was caused by too much debt and asset bubbles Australia has gone against the trend Fast and massive government action has so far saved Australia from a technical recession two consecutive quarters of Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging first home owners real estate Tidal Report 11 Oct 2009 Wrong plus wrong does not equal right Posted by Tracey Watts on October 11 2009 1 Comment Issue 46 This week the Reserve Bank of Australia became the first major central bank to raise interest rates increasing the official cash rate from 3 per cent to 3 25 per cent The basis for this rate rise is the RBA s view that the financial crisis is behind us and that it now needs to Filed under tidal reports Tagged with ben bernanke bill bonner debt glenn stevens interest rates ross guest steve keen stimulus Tidal Report 13 Sep 2009 The Great Debate Posted by Tracey Watts on September 13 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 43 Economic stimulus is one of the current debates between the government and the opposition Due to the sound bite nature of the debate the respective arguments are easily summarised The opposition believes the government has set off on a reckless spending program putting upward pressure on interest rates and lacking an exit strategy Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt deleveraging john talbott stimulus

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/debt/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
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  • greg canavan : third wave group
    of Australia has indicated interest rates may rise again if the June quarter inflation numbers come in higher than expected Inflation is already a problem for the Filed under general posts Tagged with deflation greg canavan subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/greg-canavan/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 22 Mar 2009 – Helicopter Money : third wave group
    rates commercial banks set their own lending rates to customers During economic contractions banks can fear making long term loans even with cheap short term money Borrowers can become reluctant to borrow money to purchase assets if there is a perception those assets will be cheaper tomorrow This self perpetuating cycle is difficult to break and is based purely on confidence and perception Central banks cannot force commercial banks to lend and in a period of deflation cannot even induce them to do so with a zero interest rate So with lower interest rates having failed quantitative easing is the only tool available for an increasingly panicked central bank Will it work It did not in Japan the most recent example to draw evidence from we discussed the 1990 s Japanese economy in comparison to today s situation in The Japanese Example The Bank of Japan commenced quantitative easing in March 2001 and continued for five years The Nikkei peaked in December 1989 at around 39 000 points By March 2001 it had fallen to as low as 11 500 points a fall of 70 per cent From there it continued to fall to a low of 7 600 in April 2003 an additional decline of 34 per cent Today six years on the Nikkei is trading at a similar level to April 2003 Japan s credit bubble burst in 1989 and having pursued the exact policies that the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England are now employing 20 years later their market is still down 80 per cent The main fear of quantitative easing is the potential for hyperinflation as a result of the extra money in the system This happened in Australia in 1974 and an extreme example of this is happening in Zimbabwe now Inflation however has not yet been ignited in Japan they are still dealing with deflation One thing is certain quantitative easing is a sign of desperation and is highly unlikely to restore confidence In Robert Prechter s book Conquer the Crash written in 2002 from which we have previously quoted he dealt with this very possibility One can imagine a scenario in which the Fed beginning soon after the onset of deflation trades banknotes for portfolios of bad loans replacing a sea of bad debt with an equal ocean of banknotes thus smoothly monetizing all defaults in the system without a ripple of protest reaction or deflation There are two problems with this scenario One is that the Fed is a bank and it would have no desire to go broke buying up worthless portfolios debasing its own reserves to nothing Only a government mandate triggered by crisis could compel such an action which would come only after deflation had ravaged the system Even in 1933 when the Fed agreed to monetize some bank s loans it offered cash in exchange for only the very best loans in the banks portfolios not the precarious ones Second the smooth reflation scenario is an

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-22-mar-2009-helicopter-money/ (2013-02-03)
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  • inflation : third wave group
    end of the week Early gains at the start of the week were taken back by the end The recent rally has many of Filed under tidal reports Tagged with deflation inflation interest rates japan quantitative easing robert prechter subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/inflation/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 30 Jan 2010 – As January goes . . . : third wave group
    Greece and Spain nations the building evidence of an overheating China and the political maelstrom going on in the US with its usual variety of suspect economic data None of these issues are new and have been covered in various Tidal Reports in some cases many months ago China the Great Hope The View from Burj Dubai China Sceptics Come Out to Play Bernanke is told Sentiment Gets the Wobbles What is new however is the framework through which each is being analysed The previously pervasive psychology of optimism is rapidly turning into pessimism these events are being viewed through the prism of doubt and fear hence the market reaction Yet while there is plenty to worry about only a few are grabbing the attention of the mainstream media As Zerohedge sarcastically put it seriously which default are you more worried about But I hear you say Australia is different We haven t had a recession unemployment is said to have peaked housing is going gangbusters and China well that bubble talk is nonsense We refute the accepted wisdom of these arguments and are convinced Australia will be unable to remain isolated in a deleveraging world We have argued our case in various Tidal Reports What a Success Wrong plus wrong does not equal right The Great Debate The Facts Behind the Headlines Australian Story with in fact Australia s debt situation both private and public deteriorating since Australia is only lagging the rest of the world not escaping it Regardless of your view on the strength of the Australian economy and its ability to weather a global storm the stockmarket is still following Wall Street The US economy remains in a diabolical situation with continuing housing weakness anaemic credit growth the parlous fiscal positions of a large number of the states worrying GDP composition weak consumer spending increasing unemployment etc Once there is mainstream realisation that the stockmarket rally has been underpinned on nothing more than wishful thinking the subsequent fall will almost certainly be replicated here The Australian and US indices have been closely correlated since the bull market peaks reached in October November 2007 From their respective highs to the lows of March 2009 the Australian market fell 55 per cent and the US market fell 57 per cent From there the US market rose 72 per cent with the supposedly stronger Australian market not able to match at only 61 per cent The downturn over the last week or so demonstrates the correlation is still intact even though the Australian economy is widely viewed as a world beater The US and Australian indices have currently retraced 7 per cent and 8 per cent respectively Strong economy or not Australia is unlikely to be protected from falling international markets On October 25 2009 we stated that being long is the riskiest position to be in right now as a major turn is at hand We advised clients holding long stockmarket positions to exit The market continued to

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-30-jan-2010-as-january-goes/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 8 Nov 2009 – What a Success! : third wave group
    petrol prices fell There was not much incentive to lessen debt as large parts of the world are doing In fact in the typical Australian up yours way we have in fact been increasing our debt levels and it is truly worrying We have spoken before of the First Home Owners Boost FHOB which was also implemented as part of the stimulus package Boy has it been a success By the end of December this year an expected 200 000 Australians will have been enticed into taking out a mortgage as a result of the program At 7 000 a pop that amounts to a government outlay of 1 5 billion But what a bang for their buck they got For the 1 5 billion invested there will be approximately an extra 50 billion spent on housing The recipients of the grant get an additional 40k to 50k in finance from their mortgage lender to spend on the inflated price of first homes whilst the vendors of the first homes used this additional cash to leverage into an even bigger loan Consequently the mortgage debt to GDP ratio is now at an all time high of 88 4 per cent From mid 2008 to the end of 2008 it had fallen from 84 9 per cent to 84 2 per cent The FHOB turned that around and debt levels are now five times what they were in 1989 Yes five times Many people will be in a lot of pain when interest rates inevitably rise as a result of world wide government borrowings Category tidal reports Tags australia debt deleveraging first home owners real estate Leave A Comment Click here to cancel reply Name required Mail will not be published required Website subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-8-nov-2009-what-a-success/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 13 Sep 2009 – The Great Debate? : third wave group
    John R Talbott a former investment banker with Goldman Sachs and author of Obamanomics was interviewed this week by Business Spectator and thinks we are on a straight down slope and that any positive numbers coming out of Australia or China or the US are the direct result of huge government interference You don t get out of the downward spiral unless you address the fundamental issues and the fundamental issues are too much borrowing too much corrupt practice too much criminal practice on Wall Street and a huge amount of government corporate and individual debt that has to be repaid What is the most frustrating aspect of this whole episode as Talbott sees it is it took a crisis that almost bankrupted the global financial system to show we had a very serious problem And what did we do We raced around like Humpty Dumpty soldiers and horses trying to put the old system back together again It seems silly to me for our reforms to put that same system back together again and if they re successful in doing it then all we re doing is delaying the day of mourning when this all happens again His thoughts in relation to Australia are particularly interesting Not only are we misleadingly benefitting from our own government s stimulus he thinks of Australia as sitting beautifully between the US and China and it s benefiting from both countries huge government involvement and stimulus plans but that s going to be short lived Our banks come in for some praise as he points out that Australia has some of the safest banks in the world right now four of the top 20 While he admits it is a wonderful statistic he warns that we are a global economy and not immune to global excesses He makes the point that Australia is heavily export and import dependent with China Japan and the US our most important export markets His concern over the recent China strength mirrors our own China the Great Hope China right now is doing very well and Australia is seeing a big commodities boom because of it But whereas it was real over the last 20 years this year I don t think it s real This year I think the Chinese government is just propping up commodity prices They re making too many purchases given the economic outlook China itself is not an independent economy They produce and manufacture for the US so if the US is not consuming China is going to have to slow down They are not going to be able to replace all of their exports to the US with domestic consumption When asked when he thought the double dip would occur he answered when people realise that this stimulus money is going to run out that the US doesn t have unlimited capital to keep spending that China has been really ineffective in generating domestic consumption and that we haven t stopped this

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-13-sep-2009-the-great-debate/ (2013-02-03)
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