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  • mike smith : third wave group
    s a Bear Market Posted by Tracey Watts on May 3 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 24 Stockmarkets around the world continued their recent positive momentum closing higher again for the week This is despite the rising concern of swine flu becoming a global pandemic US giant Chrysler going into Chapter 11 bankruptcy and locally disappointing earnings from ANZ Banking Group National Australia Bank and Macquarie Group In Australia the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with economy george soros mike smith paul volker recession stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/mike-smith/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 29 Nov 2009 – The View from Burj Dubai : third wave group
    arm Nakheel whose projects include the palm shaped island in the Gulf shoulders the bulk of money due to banks investment houses and outside development contractors In total the state backed networks nicknamed Dubai Inc are 80 billion in the red and the emirate needed a bailout earlier this year from its oil rich neighbor Abu Dhabi the capital of the United Arab Emirates Further evidence of Dubai World s cash strapped situation came via comments from Samsung C T Corp builder of the world s tallest tower in Dubai A spokesperson said it had stopped work on a 350 million bridge in the city after a unit of Dubai World halted payments Construction of the half finished bridge to the man made Palm Jebel Ali island was suspended earlier this month after Nakheel PJSC had made no payments for two months The moves in the various markets demonstrated how unwatched this pot was It was clearly unexpected and investors dumped risk and ran to safety This resulted in all stockmarkets falling many over 3 per cent gold silver and oil tumbling and the perceived safety of the US dollar and US treasuries highly sought after What is perhaps most interesting about the various market moves is the flight to the US dollar At the end of the day no matter how hopeless the US economy seems to be it is still far better than the alternatives For currencies are relative things If you have no faith in the US dollar what is your alternative currency With the level of debt in Japan the yen is hardly a safer bet With the British economy in more severe straits than the US the pound is not the place to be and the Euro has a whole other set of issues particularly the widely divergent economies that make up the European Union The Dubai news highlighted the almost impossible task of making these European economies one As news of the Dubai debt repayment delay became known European countries with seemingly precarious fiscal positions such as Greece and Ireland saw their government s five year credit default swaps move higher In contrast the comparative safety of Germany saw the yield on the German Bund decline by 8 basis points to 3 16 per cent In truth the Dubai news in and of itself is not the story it is the world s obvious susceptibility to continuing debt crises Markets are pricing the apparent inevitability of a sustained recovery and that the crisis is behind us What the Dubai news shows is in fact how skittish investors are and how tenuous the recovery really is Any significant bad news will have everyone rushing for the exit at once The reality is the deleveraging process will take some years to play out As one headline put it fighting the bubble one default at a time Category tidal reports Tags currency debt deleveraging dubai europe mike shedlock Comments One Response to Tidal Report 29 Nov 2009

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-29-nov-2009-the-view-from-burj-dubai/ (2013-02-03)
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  • dubai : third wave group
    completely As recently as this week sentiment indicators showed 97 per cent US dollar bears That is an astonishingly high reading A view that one sided Filed under tidal reports Tagged with currency debt deleveraging dubai europe mike shedlock subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/dubai/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 2 Nov 2008 – The First Issue! : third wave group
    stock market This is because the stock market anticipates future moves in the economy It would be fair to say that the stock markets of the world are not anticipating a mild contraction Some signs of a slow down are already showing through The Baltic Dry Index which measures demand for shipping capacity through dry bulk shipping rates has fallen 90 per cent since 23 May 2008 Also suffering are vehicle manufacturers In the third quarter of 2007 Volvo received 41 970 European orders for new trucks compared with the third quarter of 2008 where orders have been received for just 155 In Australia there are reports of Volvo selling 54 new cars nationally in September 2008 against an average of 300 per month while SAAB sold just 4 cars nationwide Whilst one could be cruel and ask who would want one anyway there must be a number of nervous SAAB salespeople Exacerbating the problems in the car industry is the recent decision by GE Money and GMAC Financial Services to withdraw from the Australian market Dealers rely on finance from groups such as these to pay for their inventory and many have been forced to find replacement finance which of course is difficult in the current credit liquidity crisis GE Money provides funding in Australia for more than 1 billion worth of cars Is this the bottom of the market What we saw during the month was of course panic There were even reports of Armaguard being short 100 notes presumably in response to people withdrawing their cash from bank accounts and literally hiding it under the bed The S P ASX 200 is currently closely following the movement of the US stock market in fact a 0 88 correlation to the daily direction of that market The fall in the US indices has been brutal and if the low of 10 October 2008 holds one would expect a snap back rally of at least one month duration Even in the greatest bear market of 1929 to 1932 there were 6 bear market rallies ranging from 19 to 52 per cent For the October low to be the bottom of this bear market it would have to be a relatively young bear market as it will have lasted less than a year The 16 bear markets since the Great Depression have lasted on average 1 year 4 months If history repeats we will have a bear market rally and then at best a re testing of these lows To attempt to pick the bottom of the market at this stage is a high risk strategy Based on historical price action it is still probable that the market will experience another leg down At best one would expect a 4 to 8 month period of consolidation before the commencement of another bull market The best time to buy stocks for investment will be when the market is near the end of its consolidation phase when we can be more confident

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-2-nov-2008-the-first-issue/ (2013-02-03)
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  • motor vehicles : third wave group
    2 Nov 2008 The First Issue Posted by Tracey Watts on November 2 2008 1 Comment Issue 1 Welcome to the first edition of the Tidal Report a weekly market commentary put together by the team at Third Wave What interesting times we live in The S P ASX 200 is now 12 months into a confirmed bear market having fallen 41 per cent since its November 2007 high of 6851 5 to its Filed under tidal reports Tagged with currency economy motor vehicles stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/motor-vehicles/ (2013-02-03)
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  • alan jones : third wave group
    banks and insurance companies would roll up to 30 billion of their debt maturing between now and 2014 into new Greek bonds The participation Filed under general posts Tagged with alan jones bailout debt greece subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/alan-jones/ (2013-02-03)
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  • robert gottliebsen : third wave group
    having trouble with the link so we have put the entire article on our website Click here for the article A mammoth capital strike looms Filed under general posts Tagged with australia robert gottliebsen super profits tax Article A mammoth capital strike looms Posted by Tracey Watts on May 18 2010 2 Comments An interesting Business Spectator article by Robert Gottliebsen discussing the potential ramifications of the proposed Resources Super Profit Tax No doubt there is an element of the miners talking their own book but it is still a rather unnerving read At this stage it s just private words to selected journalists and few decisions have been Filed under general posts Tagged with robert gottliebsen super profits tax Tidal Report 20 Mar 2010 The Myth of Undersupply Posted by Tracey Watts on March 20 2010 3 Comments Issue 64 Anyone taking a passing interest in the Australian real estate market would be under the impression house prices will be indefinitely supported by a chronic undersupply In fact the core belief behind the view that Australian house prices are not in a bubble is that there is an undersupply of houses exacerbated by Filed under tidal reports Tagged with abs australia bubblepedia national housing supply council phillip lowe real estate robert gottliebsen undersupply subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/robert-gottliebsen/ (2013-02-03)
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  • stephen long : third wave group
    global crisis Posted by Tracey Watts on August 2 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 37 A curious thing has been happening this week the government has been talking down the recovery First the prime minister s essay followed by comments from the finance minister Lindsay Tanner Curious because the government has continually emphasised the role of confidence and in the past accused the opposition of being unpatriotic when talking Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia economy kevin rudd stephen long steve keen stockmarket terry mccrann subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/stephen-long/ (2013-02-03)
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