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  • Tidal Report – 25 Jan 2009 – Oil Collapse is Deflationary : third wave group
    most significant being cotton 92 per cent August 1864 to December 1867 and silver 80 per cent January 1980 to March 1980 neither of which occurred in just one leg down This is only one reason why we think it extremely unlikely that we have seen a final bottom in our share market Important lagging indicators are starting to appear in the Australian economy BHP announced significant job cuts this week and it would seem that mass lay offs are looming in the home building and building supplies industries as well There has been a shock 12 8 per cent fall in the number of plans for new dwellings approved by local councils in November and a 21 per cent fall in the number of new apartment developments on the drawing boards This is half the level of a year ago and the lowest number for any month since 1996 In NSW the number of new dwelling approvals is at 44 year lows The biggest falls in November were in WA and QLD down 29 5 per cent and 15 9 per cent respectively It may be worth repeating part of our note from 9 November 2008 There has obviously been a global housing boom fuelled by years of easy credit and Australia was an enthusiastic participant The Economist ranks Australia in the top 5 in a sample of 22 developed countries that have experienced the largest price growth in the past decade 173 per cent which translates to an annual compound rate of approximately 10 per cent The ratio of median house prices to income has risen from 3 1 a decade ago to 5 1 one of the highest among the Anglo Saxon economies This makes us one of the dearest markets in the world Hopefully the reported under supply of housing will hold up prices in Australia though that view is not universal Louis Christopher Head of Property Research at investment research firm Advisor Edge is more cautious The truth of the matter is that if we go into an economic downturn the number of occupiers per dwelling will rise Having a job is everything If we did happen to see unemployment at 8 9 per cent that would be very negative for the housing market nationwide However not everything has been going down Poker machine revenue is up 10 per cent for the month of December no doubt due to the economic stimulus package that saw handouts to welfare recipients What a great idea that was As an intriguing aside particularly for those with an astrological interest 2008 to 2012 has Uranus in Aires Pluto in Capricorn and Saturn in Libra This is the first time in a long time that these three bodies have been in the cardinal T square signs to one another what is called a Cardinal Climax The last time You guessed it 1929 to 1931 While currently all the news is grim there are historical precedents that this will be the

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-25-jan-2009-oil-collapse-is-deflationary/ (2013-02-03)
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  • crude oil : third wave group
    is Deflationary Posted by Tracey Watts on January 25 2009 1 Comment Issue 10 The moves this week in the various markets were mixed Most of the Asian markets were down quite strongly This was in line with what happened in the US markets which fell heavily on Thursday These losses were mostly recovered on Friday which is yet to be reflected in the Asian markets In Filed under tidal reports Tagged with commodities crude oil deflation louis christopher market history real estate stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/crude-oil/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 9 Nov 2008 – After the Winter Comes the Spring : third wave group
    highest among the Anglo Saxon economies This makes us one of the dearest markets in the world Figures released during the week showed the biggest quarterly plunge in house prices in Australia on record with Brisbane leading the way with a 3 3 per cent fall According to data compiled by Australian Property Monitors house prices in Sydney s inner and eastern suburbs fell 8 per cent in the 6 months to September as the credit crunch hit top income earners The Perth market is down 10 per cent in 12 months The number of new home loans in August slumped for a 7th straight month the longest slide in 12 years Lending has tightened Retail banks are taking 10 days to approve a mortgage application as compared to the 24 48 hours it took 12 months ago Loan aggregators and mortgage brokers are no longer in the market as they have no money to lend being unable to fund themselves on the wholesale market Hopefully the reported under supply of housing will hold up prices in Australia though that view is not universal Louis Christopher Head of Property Research at investment research firm Advisor Edge is more cautious The truth of the matter is that if we go into an economic downturn the number of occupiers per dwelling will rise Having a job is everything If we did happen to see unemployment at 8 9 per cent that would be very negative for the housing market nationwide Another effect of the housing downturn of course is its impact on state budgets from reduced property taxes estimated at 2 billion in the 08 09 financial year As discussed last week with such a sharp fall in the market in such a short time and as an indicator of anticipated future conditions it is difficult to see the stock market commencing another bull market immediately The 1980 82 bear market lasted 2 years 8 months The 2002 03 bear market lasted 15 months Indeed since 1960 the average length of the 9 bear markets is 1 year 3 months The current bear market is 12 months old Although it is nearly impossible to make money going long the general market in such circumstances individual stocks and sectors can still buck the trend It is just a matter of finding them As an example during this current bear market the Healthcare sector has held up surprisingly well two of the better known stocks in that sector are Cochlear and Resmed which have benefited from the fall in the Australian dollar The Healthcare index was near all time highs as recently as September 2008 and is currently down less than 10 per cent from those highs In contrast the S P ASX 200 made its last high in November 2007 10 months earlier and is currently about 40 per cent down from those highs We spoke last week of the drastic fall in the CRB commodity index One of the consequences of the

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-9-nov-2008-after-the-winter-comes-the-spring/ (2013-02-03)
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  • saxo : third wave group
    with an increasing number of mainstream reports warning of danger ahead Last week we discussed the increasing recognition as reflected in Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia currency debt europe greece mike shedlock saxo sovereign debt speigel tony abbott united states subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/saxo/ (2013-02-03)
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  • tony makin : third wave group
    Watts on June 26 2010 2 Comments Issue 77 When global leaders met at the first G20 summit in November 2008 the world was in the grip of the GFC At this meeting it was unanimously decided that coordinated government stimulus was essential to offset the looming global recession As a result of this decision the world saw an Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt economy europe g20 global financial crisis greece karl denninger recession sovereign debt stimulus tony makin united states warwick mckibbin subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/tony-makin/ (2013-02-03)
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  • contrarian investor’s journal : third wave group
    April to its most recent low of 80 67 in less than two months a fall of 14 per cent a Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia contrarian investor s journal currency debt economy jim rogers psychology sentiment sovereign debt subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/contrarian-investors-journal/ (2013-02-03)
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  • damien cleusix : third wave group
    markedly with the homegrown view that we are doing well This week a piece of research on Australia more specifically the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia currency damien cleusix economy foreign debt mike smith ralph norris real estate subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/damien-cleusix/ (2013-02-03)
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  • foreign debt : third wave group
    Strangers Posted by Tracey Watts on March 6 2010 1 Comment Issue 62 Another interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week and another reminder of the mortgage stress many households are under This time it was Brisbane s Courier Mail with the story of a recent first home buyer who spends 80 per cent of her salary on her mortgage As mind boggling as Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia david uren foreign debt glenn stevens interest rates real estate ross garnaut subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/foreign-debt/ (2013-02-03)
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