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  • Tidal Report – 16 Aug 2009 – Australian Story : third wave group
    strength China the Great Hope the continued inflation of the Australia s housing market bubble Safe as Houses the increasing levels of unreported under employment and the inter connectedness of our banking system to the rest of the world it is quite extraordinary that this breezy outlook is so widespread The far less popular alternate view is that Australia s economy has not escaped the global recession at all and is in fact only lagging the experience of the major economies Under this scenario our apparent resilience is not some unique strength possessed by our economy but that we are further down the line of dominos the inevitable is merely being delayed It is for this reason that we maintain an extreme interest in the progress of the various global economies it will provide an insight into the experience ahead of us The other motivation behind the attention we give to the analysis of non Australian economies is that there has been far greater debate and examination of the global economic situation than the examination of the implications for the Australian economy It was therefore exciting to see Getting to Grips with the Economy an economic forum series presented by the Whitlam Institute and the University of Western Sydney The primary aim of this series was to debate and analyse the specifically Australian situation One of keynote speakers was Professor Steven Keen Associate Professor of Economics Finance at the University of Western Sydney As we have previously noted he is one of only eleven economists and financial market commentators credited with predicting the global financial crisis and the only Australian Animal Spirits Professor Keen argues that Australia is in a far more precarious economic state now than during the Great Depression or even the 1890 s depression which is widely viewed as the more severe of the two and that instead of the economy now being poised for recovery it is actually still severely unbalanced Setting the scene Professor Keen shows that the US has just experienced one of the biggest asset bubbles in history and has the greatest level of debt as a ratio of GDP in history But Australia s different right Professor Keen does not think so and discusses the implications of Australia s current debt levels and the requirements for a sustained recovery Professor Keen s view is that the global downturn is a deleveraging driven downturn and explores the question of why it has not happened in Australia The answer give it time A deleveraging induced downturn is inevitable in Australia Below is a recording of Professor Keen s address It elegantly summarises the reasons we are still sceptical of the we have bottomed chorus call At this point in history it is safer to err on the side of caution particularly when the facts tell a compelling story Category tidal reports Tags australia china economy steve keen united states Comments One Response to Tidal Report 16 Aug 2009 Australian Story Trackbacks Check out what

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-16-aug-2009-australian-story/ (2013-02-03)
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  • china : third wave group
    recession stimulus stockmarket Tidal Report 22 Feb 2009 The Financial Pyramid Posted by Tracey Watts on February 22 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 14 For some weeks we have highlighted the fact that world markets have been lacking direction and have been trading within specific ranges This week however price movements finally pointed toward a probable downturn in the short term direction of the markets In our previous report we stated that for the US S P 500 Filed under tidal reports Tagged with asia china debt japan stockmarket Tidal Report 11 Jan 2009 Honey I Shrunk the Economy Posted by Tracey Watts on January 11 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 8 Welcome to 2009 which promises to be a very interesting and challenging year for world economies and consequently stock markets We have previously spoken about the extraordinary nature of this market downturn which commenced with stock indices in November 2007 and commodities in July 2008 It has been the most vicious wealth destruction Filed under tidal reports Tagged with china great depression market history stockmarket Tidal Report 30 Nov 2008 Bailout City Posted by Tracey Watts on November 30 2008 1 Comment Issue 5 This week as anticipated equity markets rallied around the world One would be a brave soul however to buy in on this rally If the Australian market continues to follow the US it would be unlikely for the 21 November 2008 low of 3217 5 to be the bottom of this bear market It Filed under tidal reports Tagged with bailout britain china citigroup credit robert prechter stimulus stockmarket Previous Page subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/china/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
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  • elliott wave : third wave group
    The Technical Picture Posted by Tracey Watts on October 25 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 48 Third Wave Group is a fund manager and therefore an investor and trader As part of the business we also write this weekly newsletter to let our clients and subscribers know what is on our minds The Tidal Report tends to be quite general in nature and more often than not espouses our Filed under tidal reports Tagged with elliott wave psychology robert prechter sentiment technical analysis subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/elliott-wave/ (2013-02-03)
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  • junk bonds : third wave group
    we go to press The stock market is on the cusp of completing a second wave rally high having partially retraced the decline Filed under tidal reports Tagged with commodities elliott wave junk bonds karl denninger psychology robert prechter subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/junk-bonds/ (2013-02-03)
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  • charlie aitken : third wave group
    mining grab It appears that it is not only Australian mining companies that think this is folly This economic thinking runs counter to Filed under general posts Tagged with australia charlie aitken commodities kevin rudd super profits tax subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/charlie-aitken/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 5 Jul 2009 – China, the Great Hope? : third wave group
    credit is being used for speculative purposes and that the Chinese authorities are concerned about how rampant the speculation has become After the dramatic first quarter credit growth figures were released China s banking Regulatory Commission instructed banks to slow their lending and to ensure loans were not used for speculative purposes This warning was repeated last week upon release of the second quarter s credit figures Several Chinese economists have expressed increasing concerns of not only a stock and housing bubble but also worryingly for Australia a commodity speculation frenzy Andy Xie economist and commentator for Chinese business magazine Caijing opines that the current surge in commodity prices is being fuelled by China s demand for speculative inventory He goes on to say that Western analysts are in for a rude shock if they think that China s surging demand for raw materials implies genuine recovery and that the bubble being created by this speculative stockpiling is destined to implode Like so many other countries China s response to the global financial crisis was massive government stimulus So far China s stimulus program has amounted to US585 billion together with the explosion in credit that occurred when the central bank abandoned quotas on lending in November 2008 Quite simply easy money is sloshing around and chasing financial and commodity prices higher which can only end in tears But behind this stimulated growth how is China s real economy responding China is an export machine and they need two things competitive well priced exports and a robust demand in their external markets China has the former but the latter has evaporated The US is a US14 trillion economy while Europe is about US12 trillion combined they are about six times the size of China As a result it will be very difficult to see China playing any kind of leadership role without the recovery of its export markets Additionally while China s government is very supportive of infrastructure spending it provides very little support for domestic private consumption Signs of weakness in the Chinese armour are starting to appear In May China s exports fell 26 4 per cent from the prior year the largest fall ever recorded In June the government said unemployment was worsening and a quick rebound in trade was becoming less likely The State Council even said that the foundations for an economic recovery aren t solid and Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan added that trade faces unprecedented difficulties The risk is that rather than proving a catalyst for recovery the stimulus spending seen in China Australia and elsewhere just puts off the inevitable Fundamentally it will leave economies in no better health with the additional drag of nursing huge debts On the 7 30 Report this week Kerry O Brien interviewed Stephen Roach economist and the Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia KERRY O BRIEN But if China is pumping a lot of effort into its domestic infrastructure doesn t Australia still stand to benefit somewhat

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-5-jul-2009-china-the-great-hope/ (2013-02-03)
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  • fitch : third wave group
    5 per cent to 7 2 per cent While the forecasting track record of these bodies might be considered dubious at best it does indicate in a Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia china commodities fitch stephen roach stimulus subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/fitch/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 1 Mar 2009 – The Japanese Example : third wave group
    that the government intervention not only failed to stem the economic decline but weakened any possible recovery How are governments justifying their interventions in light of the Japanese example of stimulus ineffectiveness A common defence of government intervention is to theorise that the Japanese government didn t do enough In Japan s multi year efforts to boost its economy the government took public debt to 180 per cent of GDP To duplicate Japan s efforts today the US would have to triple its public debt Moreover Japan spent US 6 3 trillion in attempts to stimulate the economy To match this spending on a current GDP basis the US government would need to spend US 29 trillion That is 37 times more than the recently announced Obama stimulus package While Japan is cited as an example of what not to do at the same time it illustrates that no matter how differently the US and other governments try to deal with the economic crisis it is financially impossible to match even a fraction of Japan s efforts Evidence is continuing to show that the current crisis is far worse than that which confronted Japan Not only is the US economy deteriorating at a far greater pace rates of deflation are much higher than those of Japan in the 1990s Most significantly that economic decline was predominantly limited to Japan with other world economies continuing to grow Today in contrast the entire world is involved It is also argued the US is far better positioned to deal with this crisis than Japan was during its economic crisis In reality however Japan of the early 1990s was rich with savings and was the world s largest creditor nation By comparison the US today is devoid of savings and the world s largest debtor nation In Japan even at the height of its real estate bubble in the late 1980s the personal savings rate remained close to 14 per cent the highest rate of any major industrial nation in the world In the US the situation was precisely the opposite At the peak of the US real estate bubble in 2005 the personal savings rate was minus 0 5 per cent After their real estate bubble burst Japanese consumers had the flexibility to save less and spend more In the US today most consumers are now trying to restore their savings at the expense of their spending The personal savings rate in the U S has now risen to 2 9 per cent Japan eventually pulled itself out of the Lost Decade of the 1990s but almost predominantly due to a boom in exports to the US and China as opposed to domestic consumption Between 2001 and 2007 per capita consumer spending rose only 0 2 per cent The problem is however that even though Japan was in a stronger domestic spending position the psychological impact of the crisis permanently depressed their consumption Such an impact is even more worrying now given the

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-1-mar-2009-the-japanese-example/ (2013-02-03)
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