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  • credit : third wave group
    30 Nov 2008 Bailout City Posted by Tracey Watts on November 30 2008 1 Comment Issue 5 This week as anticipated equity markets rallied around the world One would be a brave soul however to buy in on this rally If the Australian market continues to follow the US it would be unlikely for the 21 November 2008 low of 3217 5 to be the bottom of this bear market It Filed under tidal reports Tagged with bailout britain china citigroup credit robert prechter stimulus stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/credit/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 30 Nov 2008 – Bailout City! : third wave group
    a package of 500 billion in its own extraordinary measure to deal with the current problems Half of this has been allocated to bank deposit guarantees 200 billion for Bank of England short term loans and a direct treasury injection of 50 billion The magnitude of this package becomes apparent when compared to projected total government spending of 618 billion for the 2009 financial year And it doesn t end there The European Commission also announced a stimulus package this week worth 200 billion Even China is getting in on the act They have announced a stimulus package and also during the week cut their key one year lending rate by 1 08 per cent to 5 58 per cent Such a large move by China s central bank has not been seen in 11 years since the days of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 All these moves demonstrate an increasingly alarmed mood among the world s most powerful governments regarding the health of the world economy And it s not just governments The stock market is modern society s most sensitive meter of social disposition When the mood is optimistic people buy stocks and increase their productive efforts As the mood turns pessimistic people sell stocks and reduce their productive efforts Economic trends lag stock market trends because the consequences of decisions made at the peaks and troughs of social mood take some time to play out In our current situation the stock market has been falling for over 12 months yet the economic data is only just starting to indicate a slowdown The Great Depression for example bottomed in February 1933 seven months after the stock market low of July 1932 The cause of all this has been of course the explosion of the credit economy which commentators have been concerned about for some time Last week we mentioned Robert Prechter In his book Conquer the Crash written in 2002 he wrote The value of credit that has been extended worldwide is unprecedented At the Crest of the Tidal Wave reported in 1995 that United States entities of all types owed a total of US 17 1 trillion I thought that was a big number That figure has soared to US 29 5 trillion at the end of 2001 God knows what it was at the end of 2007 He continued What screams bubble giant historic bubble in real estate today is the system wide extension of massive amounts of credit to finance property purchases As a result a record percentage of Americans today are nominal homeowners via US 7 6 trillion in mortgage debt Two thirds of them owe an average of two thirds of the value of their homes plus interest and both ratios have been increasing at a blistering pace People can buy a house with little or no down payment in many cases They can refinance a house for its entire value Bank loans to home buyers are bad enough but government sponsored

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-30-nov-2008-bailout-city/ (2013-02-03)
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  • bailout : third wave group
    disconnect from US markets by staying above its November 2008 low that hope proved to be futile The US markets are now trading Filed under tidal reports Tagged with bailout great depression p e ratio stockmarket Tidal Report 30 Nov 2008 Bailout City Posted by Tracey Watts on November 30 2008 1 Comment Issue 5 This week as anticipated equity markets rallied around the world One would be a brave soul however to buy in on this rally If the Australian market continues to follow the US it would be unlikely for the 21 November 2008 low of 3217 5 to be the bottom of this bear market It Filed under tidal reports Tagged with bailout britain china citigroup credit robert prechter stimulus stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/bailout/ (2013-02-03)
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  • citigroup : third wave group
    the US it would be unlikely for the 21 November 2008 low of 3217 5 to be the bottom of this bear market It Filed under tidal reports Tagged with bailout britain china citigroup credit robert prechter stimulus stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/citigroup/ (2013-02-03)
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  • dateline : third wave group
    of apartments and shops are being built across China at a rate of ten a year but they remain almost completely uninhabited ghost towns Filed under general posts Tagged with china dateline mike shedlock real estate subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/dateline/ (2013-02-03)
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  • mark hart : third wave group
    action with protesters angry about poverty rising food prices state food subsidies unemployment and social conditions Some commentators however are blaming the US Filed under general posts Tagged with china jim chanos mark hart vitaliy katsenelson subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/mark-hart/ (2013-02-03)
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  • andy xie : third wave group
    Xie argues the possibility that the Chinese property bubble is unlikely to shrink without credible reform BEIJING Caixin Online Beijing has unleashed another round of property Filed under general posts Tagged with andy xie china real estate subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/andy-xie/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 15 Nov 2009 – China Sceptics come out to Play : third wave group
    a position to expand capital spending for years to come However both in its duration and intensity China s capital spending boom is now outstripping previous great transformation periods including post war Germany and Japan and other Asian tiger economies Policy actions not sustainable into 2010 This year s burst in economic activity has been inflated by a front loaded stimulus package and a surge in credit growth Given their exceptional and forced nature we believe growth rates in government driven lending and capital spending will collapse in 2010 The report surmises that the China s credit to GDP ratio will be close to 200 per cent by 2010 even with GDP expanding at 10 per cent which is a level similar to pre crisis Japan in 1991 and the US in 2008 Overcapacity and falling marginal returns on investment Analysis of industrial capacity urbanisation and infrastructure development shows that China s industrialisation and structural modernisation are largely complete Combine this with falling returns on investment and it becomes obvious that China s long term investment needs are grossly overestimated This report published over three months ago received almost no mainstream attention as the China bear view has been unsexy and unpopular That was until a famous investor announced his extremely bearish stance on China this week and now commentators are taking more notice That famous investor is James Chanos the founder of Kynikos Greek for cynic an investment firm specialising in short selling i e profiting when prices fall He famously shorted US energy giant Enron just before its spectacular collapse A Politico article this week discusses his famous call in 2001 when Chanos figured out that Enron s accounting numbers were pure fiction and began contacting Wall Street investment houses that were touting Enron s stock Chanos told a congressional committee in 2002 that we were struck by how many of them conceded that there was no way to analyse Enron but that investing in Enron was instead a trust me story In a move that parallels his Enron call China has caught Chanos attention which he views as another trust me story and that much of the China miracle is in fact accounting nonsense He is said to be extremely influenced by the Pivot Capital report While not the first investor to query the veracity of official Chinese economic statistics Chanos is certainly the first to say that he is moving to short the entire nation s economy This has certainly given the China bear story some sexiness and is getting a run in mainstream media The Australian Financial Review held that some of the recent Australian stockmarket weakness is due to nervous investors trying to reduce their China exposure in response to Chanos comments Coincidently an Al Jazeera report continued the China bear theme this week As Zerohedge opined in fairly unsubtle terms In its attempt to present a growing economy and to invest its 585 billion stimulus into anything and everything courtesy of comparable idiocy

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-15-nov-2009-china-sceptics-come-out-to-play/ (2013-02-03)
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