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  • fujitsu consulting : third wave group
    decision to leave official interest rates unchanged at 3 75 per cent This pronouncement was unexpected with all 20 surveyed economists Filed under tidal reports Tagged with britain demographia report first home owners fujitsu consulting housing affordability interest rates mike shedlock real estate steve keen stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/fujitsu-consulting/ (2013-02-03)
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  • housing affordability : third wave group
    Jun 2009 Will we alone avoid the housing bust Posted by Tracey Watts on June 21 2009 1 Comment Issue 31 After rallying for 14 weeks markets around the world appear to be commencing their overdue retracement If the top of June 12 in the S P ASX 200 of 4079 4 holds then we would expect the market to retrace to at least the 3 450 to 3 700 range For the moment it certainly looks like the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with demographia report housing affordability neil jenman real estate stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/housing-affordability/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 24 May 2009 – Is the Return of Optimism Justified? : third wave group
    If as an ever increasing number of commentators feel the March lows were the final lows in this bear market it would mean that we are now in the first leg up of a new bull market We feel that the bear market has yet to end but for the sake of argument let s assume we have started a new bull market The seven closest historical fits to the current rise as first legs up in a new bull market in terms of degree and rate are those of 1938 1904 1908 1933 1974 1987 and 2003 Of interest is what happened once the intermediate tops were in Without exception all had violent retracements In an average time of just two months and seven days they respectively gave back 42 per cent 49 per cent 56 per cent 77 per cent 79 per cent 89 per cent and 89 per cent of the previous gains History indicates therefore that this current surge is likely to violently retrace in the not too distant future As we have consistently indicated we are still of the view that the recent climb is another bear market rally with future retracements likely to take the market below the March lows Only time will tell However whether this is a bear market rally or a new bull market what happens next is likely to be similar As history has demonstrated even in a new bull market violent corrections are highly likely The enthusiasm for equities appears premature or at least somewhat overdone in terms of the rate and extent of the rebound What is likely to turn the recent positive sentiment Has it in fact already turned Having fallen as much as six per cent since their May highs the markets have certainly been demonstrating some wobbles over the last couple of weeks The global stockmarkets finished flat following plenty of intra week volatility This week saw the release of several items of destabilising economic news On Thursday ratings agency Standard Poor s unnerved the markets when it revised the UK s credit outlook from stable to negative The outlook revision is based on their view that even factoring in further fiscal tightening the UK s net general government debt burden may approach 100 of GDP and remain near that level in the medium term The concern was deepened by the fear of a similar action against the United States with some estimates of the comparable ratio in the United Printing Presses of America to borrow from notable blog Zero Hedge standing at over 370 per cent Confidence was further shaken when the US Federal Reserve revised their forecasts of only three months ago issuing a statement that projected higher unemployment and a steeper drop in economic activity Many Australians however might be forgiven for thinking what recession A steadily employed Aussie is currently in a far better position financially than a year ago Mortgage rates are at historically low levels petrol prices are substantially

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-24-may-2009-is-the-return-of-optimism-justified/ (2013-02-03)
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  • don argus : third wave group
    November 2007 and fell 54 per cent to the low of 9 March 2009 Those falls were historic particularly in terms of their velocity In the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia britain don argus great depression market history psychology recession stockmarket subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/don-argus/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 10 May 2009 – Britain, a Third World Country? : third wave group
    the results There is no stress in this test at all There has been so much focus on the banking stresses and stress tests in the US that the rest of the world economy is sometimes forgotten While the US is the world s largest economy it is only about 20 to 25 percent of global output So while the world debates what shape the US banks are actually in there is bad news in Europe both Western and Eastern German Swiss French and British banks are extremely exposed to poor quality debt from eastern European countries The effects of this debt have yet to be felt in the global financial community In our part of the world however the main game this week will certainly be the federal budget As the budget will undoubtedly concentrate on the global economic crisis over which the government has no control of course we thought it might be of interest to look at how well Australia is placed in comparison to other industrialised countries The state of the US economy receives a deal of attention in most of the mainstream media What we don t hear so much about is the UK and Europe It is fair to say unfortunately that the UK economy is a basket case We have previously mentioned the extreme lows of interest rates 0 5 per cent and of course the fact that the Bank of England was first out of the gates with quantitative easing i e the printing of money British public borrowing has spiked to its highest levels since records began more than 60 years ago and unemployment is at its worst levels since 1997 In a trend that is becoming common world wide forecasts are being changed rapidly Public sector net borrowing for the tax year just ended totalled almost 90 billion 10 billion above the finance minister s forecast from as recently as November The recent British budget forecast government borrowing of 175 billion this year more than 12 per cent of GDP Britain will issue 220 billion of government debt in 2009 10 with its net debt being forecast to rise to at least 79 per cent of GDP over the next five years Conservative leader David Cameron contextualised it this way He Finance Minister Alistair Darling is planning to borrow 348 billion over the next two years that is more over just two years than every previous government put together not just every government since World War Two but since the Bank of England was first founded more than 300 years ago Measures taken to increase revenue include a rise in the top marginal tax rate from 40 per cent to 50 per cent and a 2 per cent increase in tobacco and alcohol taxes Those with a political interest might enjoy this speech from Daniel Hannan Conservative MEP for the South East of England a Paul Keating with British decorum Daniel Hannan MEP The devalued Prime Minister of a devalued

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-10-may-2009-britain-a-third-world-country/ (2013-02-03)
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  • daniel hannan : third wave group
    May 10 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 25 The dramatic rally seen in most stockmarkets around the world continued again this week after only the briefest of pauses in April In Australia the S P ASX 200 rose 4 6 per cent to 3 941 7 within striking distance of the psychologically important 4 000 level for the first time in six months Since the rally began in Filed under tidal reports Tagged with britain daniel hannan debt economy europe interest rates international monetary fund stockmarket stress tests united states subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/daniel-hannan/ (2013-02-03)
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  • stress tests : third wave group
    3 941 7 within striking distance of the psychologically important 4 000 level for the first time in six months Since the rally began in Filed under tidal reports Tagged with britain daniel hannan debt economy europe interest rates international monetary fund stockmarket stress tests united states subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/stress-tests/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Tidal Report – 7 Dec 2008 – The “Average” Australian : third wave group
    of the downturn they can at best only offer a partial solution As we have said before both Japan up to the present and the US during the Great Depression continued to cut interest rates to no avail The credit bubble is also witnessed in the ratio of household debt to household income in Australia which has trebled over the past decade from 50 per cent to 150 per cent Two examples of living beyond one s means appeared in the press this week although are hopefully not indicative of the widespread situation One Sydney couple with four small children appeared on the front page of The Australian under the heading Million dollar borrowers can breathe easier The family bought an unrenovated three bedroom bungalow in North Sydney in January for 1 042 747 and borrowed the entire amount They were repaying interest only to the tune of 8 000 per month Repayments have now fallen to 6 500 following the recent interest rate reductions although they also have monthly car repayments of 1 000 The couple have a combined annual income of 180 000 and were recently forced to jettison their investment property The extent of our welfare state mentality was revealed by the couple s complaint that it was unfair to means test the one off family cash payment which is part of the Federal government s 10 billion stimulus package The other story explained how a young 20 year old Sydney woman who had just been retrenched and admits to a sizeable credit card debt has had to go from spending 1 500 each week on clothes and going out to spending next to nothing Just how indebted is the average Australian This is important to consider as a significant issue affecting share prices at the moment is debt refinancing Companies carrying significant levels of debt are having difficulty refinancing and when they are able to the costs of that debt are prohibitive Babcock and Brown whose share price has dived from 30 80 to 25 announced during the week that it had secured finance for the next two months by way of a 150 million life line at 6 per cent above normal interest rates The share price rose 56 per cent to 39 still somewhat shy of 30 And it is not just companies striving to deal with the refinancing difficulties The British government announced further measures this week in an attempt to deal with a growing housing finance problem and to stave off repossessions Home owners who lose their job or suffer a significant drop in earnings will be allowed to defer mortgage interest payments for up to two years Eight lenders who account for 70 per cent of the mortgage market have assented to the government s plan The potentially massive deferred interest would also be guaranteed by the government in the event of default So once again we have seen a week with extraordinary solutions being attempted to deal with extraordinary levels

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tidal-report/tidal-report-7-dec-2008-the-average-australian/ (2013-02-03)
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