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  • alan kohler : third wave group
    and bond market action have continued to contradict their increasingly shrill assertions Europe has been hogging the headlines in recent months with its spreading sovereign debt and banking crises allowing the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler deleveraging economy mike shedlock psychology sentiment stockmarket united states Tidal Report 22 May 2010 Is the bear market rally over Posted by Tracey Watts on May 22 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 72 There were some rather nasty falls on stockmarkets around the world this week The Australian S P ASX 200 was down 6 6 per cent and the S P 500 in the US down 8 3 per cent In Australia while the moves this week have been dramatic they are simply following through on the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler flash crash robert prechter sovereign debt stockmarket technical analysis Tidal Report 15 May 2010 Europe crumbles budget stumbles Posted by Tracey Watts on May 15 2010 2 Comments Issue 71 The relief that greeted the announcement by the European finance ministers of a rescue package for the ever escalating European debt crisis did not last out the week Continuing concerns over Greek solvency and the efficacy of the rescue package increased investor nervousness throughout the week with European stockmarkets experiencing Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler australia budget ets europe greece paul de grauwe stockmarket super profits tax terry mccrann Tidal Report 8 May 2010 Our fragile markets Posted by Tracey Watts on May 8 2010 1 Comment Issue 70 What a tumultuous week it has been on the markets An apparent perfect storm combination of a super profits tax on Australian resource companies continuing Greek debt dramas and riots and an alleged fat finger episode in the US that saw the Dow Jones index plunge 1000 points on Thursday The Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler australia europe greece stockmarket super profits tax terry mccrann Tidal Report 12 Feb 2010 The Next Wave Posted by Tracey Watts on February 12 2010 1 Comment Issue 59 Senator Barnaby Joyce attracted much media attention and was roundly ridiculed this week when he questioned the possibility of default on Australia s government debt On the surface it appears his comments were rather alarmist as Australia has one of the lowest ratios of government debt to GDP in the western world We are Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler australia barnaby joyce cameron clyne dan denning debt greece oecd sovereign debt stimulus Tidal Report 1 Nov 2009 Sentiment gets the wobbles Posted by Tracey Watts on November 1 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 49 Markets around the world fell significantly this week led by Wall Street It was also a week of extreme volatility In the US the S P 500 fell 2 per cent on Wednesday rose 2 3 per cent the following day only to fall an astonishing 2 9 per cent on Friday Friday s performance is the Filed

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/alan-kohler/ (2013-02-03)
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  • australia : third wave group
    a number of occasions the views of Warwick McKibbin an ex Reserve Bank of Australia board member Back in March we had this to say in Thank god someone s worried Luckily for us Professor McKibbin still voices his economic views with a frankness that is to be respected In an interview Filed under general posts Tagged with australia europe sovereign debt united states warwick mckibbin What does this chart tell you Posted by Tracey Watts on August 12 2011 2 Comments Let s first set the scene This is a chart of US Real Home prices prices or an index corrected for inflation Now let s compare that to the Australian market I don t see this ending well Go here for more on these charts Filed under general posts Tagged with australia charts real estate Today Tonight Property Price Plunge Posted by Tracey Watts on July 25 2011 2 Comments The Australian property market has come in for some serious mainstream attention recently A recent report on Channel Seven s Today Tonight is not going to increase the confidence of potential buyers The report title Property Price Plunge gives you an idea of the tone Whilst hardly a detailed analysis of the real estate market in Filed under general posts Tagged with australia philip soos prosper real estate today tonight The Australian Government s wilful blindness Posted by Tracey Watts on July 16 2011 1 Comment We recently published an article by Liam Halligan chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management who opined that the US and Europe are in real economic trouble and although separate the dangers are intimately related He argued that both have their roots in grotesque and utterly unsustainable levels of government debt The view that the world Filed under general posts Tagged with australia carbon tax global financial crisis henry ergas oliver marc hartwich sovereign debt Real Estate a new paradigm Posted by Tracey Watts on July 12 2011 2 Comments One of the most interesting things about any market is the almost measurable ebb and flow of sentiment It is easy to see how sentiment and the psychology of market participants forms the basis of just about any type of cyclical activity whether it be fashion fads business cycles or the price of real estate Filed under general posts Tagged with australia mike shedlock real estate united states Economic bust in Australia obvious Posted by Tracey Watts on May 17 2011 2 Comments Australia has again attracted the attention of international commentators and their conclusions are not pretty The title of Mike Shedlock s latest piece on the Australian economy says it all Economic Bust in Australia Near Record Corporate Bankruptcies Employment Drops Unexpectedly Rise in Bad Home Loans Record Low Property Transactions What surprises Mike most is that Filed under general posts Tagged with australia economy mike shedlock Denial is not a river in Egypt Posted by Tracey Watts on May 12 2011 3 Comments Back in September 2010 we produced the

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/australia/ (2013-02-03)
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  • banks : third wave group
    seen it emerge as the sport de jour We ve seen opposition treasurer Joe Hockey come out and aggressively reposition himself and a reluctant Liberal Party as slayers Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia banks david llewellyn smith Tidal Report 23 Oct 2010 The true state of Australia s banks Posted by Tracey Watts on October 23 2010 5 Comments Issue 94 The Australian banking system is regularly lauded for its strength and good judgement and banking industry regulations are praised for their rigour and prudence The fact that Australia was one of the few Western economies to avoid a technical recession during the Global Financial Crisis is frequently cited as proof Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia banks david llewellyn smith joe hockey Tidal Report 2 Oct 2010 The Irish Canary in the Coal Mine Posted by Tracey Watts on October 2 2010 8 Comments Issue 91 The once roaring Celtic Tiger economy is now but a distant memory for the Irish its economy seemingly unable to escape the grip of the meltdown that started with the Global Financial Crisis While Greece has been the headline act for the European sovereign debt crisis Ireland has always featured Filed under tidal reports Tagged with banks economy ireland real estate sovereign debt Tidal Report 12 Sep 2010 Fudging the Data Posted by Tracey Watts on September 12 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 88 It will be interesting to see if a story that was broken this weekend by Kris Sayce editor of Money Morning Australia attracts much mainstream media attention this week The basis of the story is a presentation lodged with the ASX by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia entitled Australian residential Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia banks debt demographia report kris sayce steve keen Tidal

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/banks/ (2013-02-03)
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  • ben bernanke : third wave group
    Aug 2010 Bernanke confounds again Posted by Tracey Watts on August 29 2010 2 Comments Issue 86 US stock markets rallied strongly on Friday in response to a revision in second quarter GDP growth from 2 4 per cent to 1 6 per cent A big downward revision received positively How can this be Well economists had been ahead of the game and previously revised their GDP growth expectations Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler ben bernanke david rosenberg deleveraging economy gdp karl denninger united states Tidal Report 13 Dec 2009 Bernanke is told Posted by Tracey Watts on December 13 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 55 The Christmas break has caught up with us so just a quick note from the beach this week Many people feel that Ben Bernanke Governor of the US Federal Reserve saved the world from a banking crisis including Mr Bernanke himself Unfortunately the Federal Reserve has had a powerful hand in not only Filed under tidal reports Tagged with ben bernanke Tidal Report 11 Oct 2009 Wrong plus wrong does not equal right Posted by Tracey Watts on October 11 2009 1 Comment Issue 46 This week the Reserve Bank of Australia became the first major central bank to raise interest rates increasing the official cash rate from 3 per cent to 3 25 per cent The basis for this rate rise is the RBA s view that the financial crisis is behind us and that it now needs to Filed under tidal reports Tagged with ben bernanke bill bonner debt glenn stevens interest rates ross guest steve keen stimulus subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the

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  • britain : third wave group
    peaked on 1 November 2007 and fell 54 per cent to the low of 9 March 2009 Those falls were historic particularly in terms of their velocity In the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia britain don argus great depression market history psychology recession stockmarket Tidal Report 10 May 2009 Britain a Third World Country Posted by Tracey Watts on May 10 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 25 The dramatic rally seen in most stockmarkets around the world continued again this week after only the briefest of pauses in April In Australia the S P ASX 200 rose 4 6 per cent to 3 941 7 within striking distance of the psychologically important 4 000 level for the first time in six months Since the rally began in Filed under tidal reports Tagged with britain daniel hannan debt economy europe interest rates international monetary fund stockmarket stress tests united states Tidal Report 7 Dec 2008 The Average Australian Posted by Tracey Watts on December 7 2008 Leave a Comment Issue 6 This week markets around the world gave back some of the prior weeks dramatic rally The S P ASX 200 gave back more than most down 6 7 per cent and ending the week at 3489 9 The S P ASX 200 is now up only 8 5 per cent from its most recent lows and the markets are struggling Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia britain credit debt deflation real estate stockmarket Tidal Report 30 Nov 2008 Bailout City Posted by Tracey Watts on November 30 2008 1 Comment Issue 5 This week as anticipated equity markets rallied around the world One would be a brave soul however to buy in on this rally If the Australian market continues to follow the US it would be

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/britain/ (2013-02-03)
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  • china : third wave group
    s mountain of debt from a GFC induced deleveraging was not the BER nor pink batts but an unprecedented 600 billion stimulus package unleashed by the Chinese government equivalent to 12 per cent of GDP Before the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with china jim chanos vitaliy katsenelson Tidal Report 11 Jun 2010 The Great Fiddle Posted by Tracey Watts on July 11 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 79 The changes that accompanied the rebranding of the Resource Super Profits Tax RSPT to the Resource Rent Tax RRT were initially said to have only cost 1 5bn in revenue with the new tax raising 10 5bn instead of 12bn At a hearing of the Senate Estimates Committee however Treasury Secretary Ken Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia china super profits tax terry mccrann Tidal Report 17 Apr 2010 China on a Treadmill to Hell Posted by Tracey Watts on April 17 2010 2 Comments Issue 67 The name Jim Chanos is well known in the investment world and we have spoken of him before In China Skeptics Come Out to Play we described him thus That famous investor is James Chanos the founder of Kynikos Greek for cynic an investment firm specialising in short selling i e profiting when prices Filed under tidal reports Tagged with china commodities jim chanos real estate Video Chanos Says China Property Bubble May Burst Charlie Rose Posted by Tracey Watts on April 16 2010 Leave a Comment Jim Chanos is founder of the hedge fund Kynikos Associates He is most famous for detecting the accounting fraud going on in Enron and shorting the stock prior to its collapse More recently he has opined that China is in the grip of a massive property bubble that is set to burst We have mentioned Filed under general posts Tagged with china jim chanos real estate Article Frayed String for China s Property Balloon Posted by Tracey Watts on March 27 2010 Leave a Comment An interesting article on the overheating Chinese property market and why central government attempts to cool it down may not be effective The article by independent economist Andy Xie argues the possibility that the Chinese property bubble is unlikely to shrink without credible reform BEIJING Caixin Online Beijing has unleashed another round of property Filed under general posts Tagged with andy xie china real estate Tidal Report 15 Nov 2009 China Sceptics come out to Play Posted by Tracey Watts on November 15 2009 1 Comment Issue 51 When discussing the state of the world economy Australia is often highlighted as one of the few western countries to have come through the global financial crisis relatively unscathed Commentators and analysts routinely point to the remarkable strength of the Chinese economy and our exposure to that strength as the most significant factor Filed under tidal reports Tagged with al jazeera australia china commodities economy jim chanos pivot capital zerohedge Tidal Report 16 Aug 2009 Australian Story Posted by Tracey Watts on August

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/china/ (2013-02-03)
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  • commodities : third wave group
    with china commodities jim chanos real estate Tidal Report 15 Nov 2009 China Sceptics come out to Play Posted by Tracey Watts on November 15 2009 1 Comment Issue 51 When discussing the state of the world economy Australia is often highlighted as one of the few western countries to have come through the global financial crisis relatively unscathed Commentators and analysts routinely point to the remarkable strength of the Chinese economy and our exposure to that strength as the most significant factor Filed under tidal reports Tagged with al jazeera australia china commodities economy jim chanos pivot capital zerohedge Tidal Report 4 Oct 2009 Emerging Doubts Posted by Tracey Watts on October 4 2009 Leave a Comment Issue 45 On Thursday the majority of world markets recorded what ranked as the largest daily decline since the March lows It does not take much of a fall in world markets to start to reveal doubts about the sustainability of the world recovery Most of you would know of Alan Kohler He is an Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler commodities economy employment Tidal Report 5 Jul 2009 China the Great Hope Posted by Tracey Watts on July 5 2009 3 Comments Issue 33 Last week the OECD raised its China growth forecast from 6 3 per cent to 7 7 percent At the same time the World Bank raised its forecast from 6 5 per cent to 7 2 per cent While the forecasting track record of these bodies might be considered dubious at best it does indicate in a Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia china commodities fitch stephen roach stimulus Tidal Report 1 Mar 2009 The Japanese Example Posted by Tracey Watts on March 1 2009 1 Comment Issue 15 As we forecast last week most world markets have made decisive moves to the downside This is the start of what we feel will be a final impulse lower before the commencement of a rally that should last at least several months The S P ASX 200 however has yet to decisively break below its Filed under tidal reports Tagged with commodities economy japan psychology stimulus stockmarket Tidal Report 25 Jan 2009 Oil Collapse is Deflationary Posted by Tracey Watts on January 25 2009 1 Comment Issue 10 The moves this week in the various markets were mixed Most of the Asian markets were down quite strongly This was in line with what happened in the US markets which fell heavily on Thursday These losses were mostly recovered on Friday which is yet to be reflected in the Asian markets In Filed under tidal reports Tagged with commodities crude oil deflation louis christopher market history real estate stockmarket Tidal Report 9 Nov 2008 After the Winter Comes the Spring Posted by Tracey Watts on November 9 2008 2 Comments Issue 2 As we mentioned in our last issue the S P ASX 200 made a low of 3724 8 on Tuesday 28 October 2008 The

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/commodities/ (2013-02-03)
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  • currency : third wave group
    fallen from a high of 93 88 in April to its most recent low of 80 67 in less than two months a fall of 14 per cent a Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia contrarian investor s journal currency debt economy jim rogers psychology sentiment sovereign debt Tidal Report 1 May 2010 The Case Against Australia Posted by Tracey Watts on May 1 2010 3 Comments Issue 69 Australia is generating more and more attention from international analysts as the imbalances of our nation become more apparent The clarity with which foreigners see the Australian position contrasts markedly with the homegrown view that we are doing well This week a piece of research on Australia more specifically the Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia currency damien cleusix economy foreign debt mike smith ralph norris real estate Tidal Report 29 Nov 2009 The View from Burj Dubai Posted by Tracey Watts on November 29 2009 1 Comment Issue 53 All eyes and commentary in recent months have been on the decline of the US dollar with the almost universal view that it was going to collapse completely As recently as this week sentiment indicators showed 97 per cent US dollar bears That is an astonishingly high reading A view that one sided Filed under tidal reports Tagged with currency debt deleveraging dubai europe mike shedlock Tidal Report 2 Nov 2008 The First Issue Posted by Tracey Watts on November 2 2008 1 Comment Issue 1 Welcome to the first edition of the Tidal Report a weekly market commentary put together by the team at Third Wave What interesting times we live in The S P ASX 200 is now 12 months into a confirmed bear market having fallen 41 per cent since its November 2007 high of 6851

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/currency/ (2013-02-03)
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