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  • gavin rutland : third wave group
    quo But is this actually so Leith van Onselen has had a look at this issue and found the reverse to be true Filed under general posts Tagged with australia employment gavin rutland leith van onselen real estate recession subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/gavin-rutland/ (2013-02-03)
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  • warwick mckibbin : third wave group
    interview with The Australian s Michael Stutchbury last week he warned in no uncertain terms that a bigger bubble is building in Australia one Filed under general posts Tagged with australia david murray delusional economics leith van onselen real estate warwick mckibbin Thank god someone s worried Posted by Tracey Watts on March 7 2011 5 Comments Last year Glenn Stevens Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia did something quite unprecedented when he gave an interview to David Koch on the Seven Network s Sunrise program gently advising viewers that property investment was not a sure bet He was quite specific in his warning saying I think it is a mistake to Filed under general posts Tagged with australia global financial crisis michael stutchbury warwick mckibbin Tidal Report 26 Jun 2010 Stim u less Posted by Tracey Watts on June 26 2010 2 Comments Issue 77 When global leaders met at the first G20 summit in November 2008 the world was in the grip of the GFC At this meeting it was unanimously decided that coordinated government stimulus was essential to offset the looming global recession As a result of this decision the world saw an Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia debt economy europe g20 global financial crisis greece karl denninger recession sovereign debt stimulus tony makin united states warwick mckibbin subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/warwick-mckibbin/ (2013-02-03)
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  • charts : third wave group
    compare that to the Australian market I don t see this ending well Go here for more on these charts Filed under general posts Tagged with australia charts real estate subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May 2011 April 2011 March 2011 February 2011 January 2011 December 2010 November 2010 October

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/tag/charts/ (2013-02-03)
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  • blog : third wave group
    market has come in for some serious mainstream attention recently A recent report on Channel Seven s Today Tonight is not going to increase the confidence of potential buyers The report title Property Price Plunge gives you an idea of the tone Whilst hardly a detailed analysis of the real estate market in read more Category general posts Tags australia philip soos prosper real estate today tonight The Australian Government s wilful blindness Posted by Tracey Watts on July 16 2011 1 Comment We recently published an article by Liam Halligan chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management who opined that the US and Europe are in real economic trouble and although separate the dangers are intimately related He argued that both have their roots in grotesque and utterly unsustainable levels of government debt The view that the world read more Category general posts Tags australia carbon tax global financial crisis henry ergas oliver marc hartwich sovereign debt Real Estate a new paradigm Posted by Tracey Watts on July 12 2011 2 Comments One of the most interesting things about any market is the almost measurable ebb and flow of sentiment It is easy to see how sentiment and the psychology of market participants forms the basis of just about any type of cyclical activity whether it be fashion fads business cycles or the price of real estate read more Category general posts Tags australia mike shedlock real estate united states Grotesque government debt Posted by Tracey Watts on July 11 2011 3 Comments The latest end game crank to argue that the world economy or more specifically Europe and the US is in dire straits has hit the newsstands Liam Halligan chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management has written an article in The Telegraph clearly describing the precipice upon which the world s economy is standing The piece is reproduced read more Category general posts Tags europe sovereign debt united states The Tragedy that is Greece Posted by Tracey Watts on July 5 2011 1 Comment The latest in an unending line of fixes for the Greek debt problem proposals carefully crafted by French banks which are the biggest foreign holders of Greek debt under which banks and insurance companies would roll up to 30 billion of their debt maturing between now and 2014 into new Greek bonds The participation read more Category general posts Tags alan jones bailout debt greece The Technical Big Picture Posted by Tracey Watts on June 5 2011 1 Comment Tim Wood a well renowned technical analyst is a proponent of the view that the US stock market rally that has occurred from the March 2009 low is a bear market rally That is after more than two years of generally upwards movement the major trend of the markets is still down a view read more Category general posts Tags market history stockmarket technical analysis tim wood Irish Misery Posted by Tracey Watts on May 23 2011 2 Comments Ireland hasn t made the headlines

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/blog/page/2/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Europe – enough already! : third wave group
    s been added to the mix Who s next France If Italy and Spain have difficulties are we sure that for instance France can still be considered a core country said Marco Valli chief euro area economist at UniCredit Global Core is becoming a narrower group of countries While France s debt of 84 7 percent of gross domestic product is less than Italy s 120 3 percent as a percentage of economic output it has risen twice as fast as Italy s since 2007 French government debt totaled 1 59 trillion euros 2 3 trillion at the end of 2010 according to the European Union Italy s was about 1 8 trillion euros France has had a larger budget deficit than Italy every year since 2006 S P rates Italy A four levels below France If French authorities do not follow through with their reform of the pension system make additional changes to the social security system and consolidate the current budgetary position in the face of rising spending pressure on health care and pensions Standard Poor s will unlikely maintain its AAA rating S P said in a June 10 report Before long Germany will be the last man standing Mike Shedlock from SitkaPacific Capital Management cuts to the chase Structurally the only way to resolve the European mess is Adoption of a European nanny state complete with common bonds and common fiscal policies Partial breakup of the Eurozone Would Germany go along with the former How difficult is the latter I cannot answer the former but the latter is easier said than done Greece for example would immediately blow up in hyperinflation if it was forced to immediately go back on the Drachma No one would want that Capital and human capital would both flee Greece The same might apply to Portugal and Spain Germany could leave Otherwise slowly but surely the European Nanny State solution will be forced down the throats of screaming German taxpayers The endgame is not clear and both option 1 and 2 involve huge unresolved issues with global consequences What is clear is the current path is unsustainable There has never been a successful currency union in history that did not also involve a fiscal union as well This time will not be different This can only end badly and the constant attempts to kick the can down the road to avoid the tough decisions will only make the inevitable that much worse Category general posts Tags europe mike shedlock sovereign debt Comments One Response to Europe enough already Steven Liaros says August 17 2011 at 4 17 pm What about this for a solution a bank bailout of all European Governments Or better still cancel all European Government debts owed to European banks We couldn t have that could we Banks are too big to fail but taxpayers represent a bottomless pit of funds as far as the banks are concerned If the only solution is nanny state austerity measures that

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/general/europe-enough-already/ (2013-02-03)
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  • US debt ceiling drama – yawn : third wave group
    week The chart shows CBO s scoring of those spending cuts see here and here Wait a minute those bars are rising Spending isn t being cut at all The cuts in the deal are only cuts from the CBO baseline which is a Washington construct of ever rising spending And even these cuts from the baseline include 156 billion of interest savings which are imaginary because the underlying cuts are imaginary No program or agency terminations are identified in the deal None of the vast armada of federal subsidies are targeted for elimination Old folks will continue to gorge themselves on inflated benefits paid for by young families and future generations None of Senator Tom Coburn s or Senator Rand Paul s specific cuts were included The federal government will still run a deficit of 1 trillion next year This deal will cut the 2012 budget of 3 6 trillion by just 22 billion or less than 1 percent Incredible Congressman Ron Paul is equally outraged at this pointless sleight of hand One might think that the recent drama over the debt ceiling involves one side wanting to increase or maintain spending with the other side wanting to drastically cut spending but that is far from the truth In spite of the rhetoric being thrown around the real debate is over how much government spending will increase No plan under serious consideration cuts spending in the way you and I think about it Instead the cuts being discussed are illusory and are not cuts from current amounts being spent but cuts in projected spending increases This is akin to a family saving 100 000 in expenses by deciding not to buy a Lamborghini and instead getting a fully loaded Mercedes when really their budget dictates that they need to stick with their perfectly serviceable Honda But this is the type of math Washington uses to mask the incriminating truth about their unrepentant plundering of the American people We are great admirers of Ron Paul who has been tirelessly campaigning for true economic responsibility for years without much success He further exposes the grandiose folly of the ego driven debt ceiling negotiations with his analysis of what cuts are actually required to balance the budget In reality bringing our fiscal house into order is not that complicated or excruciatingly painful at all If we simply kept spending at current levels by their definition of cuts that would save nearly 400 billion in the next few years versus the 25 billion the Budget Control Act claims to cut It would only take us 5 years to cut 1 trillion in Washington math just by holding the line on spending That is hardly austere or catastrophic A balanced budget is similarly simple and within reach if Washington had just a tiny amount of fiscal common sense Our revenues currently stand at approximately 2 2 trillion a year and are likely to remain stagnant as the recession continues Our outlays are 3 7

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/general/us-debt-ceiling-drama-yawn/ (2013-02-03)
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  • The Greek people never learned to pay their taxes : third wave group
    piñata stuffed with fantastic sums and give as many citizens as possible a whack at it In just the past decade the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled in real terms and that number doesn t take into account the bribes collected by public officials The average government job pays almost three times the average private sector job The national railroad has annual revenues of 100 million euros against an annual wage bill of 400 million plus 300 million euros in other expenses The average state railroad employee earns 65 000 euros a year Twenty years ago a successful businessman turned minister of finance named Stefanos Manos pointed out that it would be cheaper to put all Greece s rail passengers into taxicabs it s still true We have a railroad company which is bankrupt beyond comprehension Manos put it to me And yet there isn t a single private company in Greece with that kind of average pay The Greek public school system is the site of breathtaking inefficiency one of the lowest ranked systems in Europe it nonetheless employs four times as many teachers per pupil as the highest ranked Finland s Greeks who send their children to public schools simply assume that they will need to hire private tutors to make sure they actually learn something There are three government owned defense companies together they have billions of euros in debts and mounting losses The retirement age for Greek jobs classified as arduous is as early as 55 for men and 50 for women As this is also the moment when the state begins to shovel out generous pensions more than 600 Greek professions somehow managed to get themselves classified as arduous hairdressers radio announcers waiters musicians and on and on and on The Greek public health care system spends far more on supplies than the European average and it is not uncommon several Greeks tell me to see nurses and doctors leaving the job with their arms filled with paper towels and diapers and whatever else they can plunder from the supply closets The Greek people never learned to pay their taxes because no one is ever punished It s like a gentleman not opening a door for a lady Where waste ends and theft begins almost doesn t matter the one masks and thus enables the other It s simply assumed for instance that anyone who is working for the government is meant to be bribed People who go to public health clinics assume they will need to bribe doctors to actually take care of them Government ministers who have spent their lives in public service emerge from office able to afford multi million dollar mansions and two or three country homes Oddly enough the financiers in Greece remain more or less beyond reproach They never ceased to be anything but sleepy old commercial bankers Virtually alone among Europe s bankers they did not buy U S subprime backed bonds or leverage

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/general/the-greek-people-never-learned-to-pay-their-taxes/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Today Tonight – “Property Price Plunge?” : third wave group
    2011 including a critical analysis of the arguments offered by the mainstream against the existence of a bubble and compares these to robust and tangible statistics Failing to recognise a 2 trillion bubble when Australia s GDP is 1 35 trillion seriously undermines the standing and credibility of many of Australia s so called experts Prosper Australia Campaign Manager David Collyer said today The conclusions in Bubbling Over are very ugly by any objective economic measure house price to rent household debt to assets median house price to income multiple mortgage debt to GDP household debt to disposable income residential property is severely overvalued Philip Soos demolishes the myths force fed to aspiring homebuyers by salaried real estate types financiers and the economists who have denied or missed this land bubble altogether Collyer said That said at 77 pages it is not a report for the faint hearted However for those wanting a detailed look at the arguments that support the view that Australia has a property bubble together with robust rebuttal of the commonly presented counterarguments it is well worth a read Bubbling Over download here Category general posts Tags australia philip soos prosper real estate today tonight Comments 2 Responses to Today Tonight Property Price Plunge David Collyer says July 25 2011 at 10 02 pm Thanks for re posting Tracy The Don t Buy Now Home Buyers Strike campaign seeks to warn innocent first home buyers of the risks of buying at the top of the market when significant price falls are imminent If you know of any wannabe homeowners please forward Tracy s post or the material from prosper org au to them The economic arguments are fully examined by Philip Soos and others Those with limited equity in coming months and years are going to

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/general/today-tonight-property-price-plunge/ (2013-02-03)
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