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  • our views : third wave group
    consensus allowing our readers to gain insight into both our views and those formed by nonconformist thinkers We endeavour to bring an engaged and critical eye to current conditions and opinions keeping history as a blueprint keeping you on the crest of the wave subscribe Have our blog posts delivered straight to your inbox categories general posts tidal reports latest posts The story silver tells Is the end game in sight for Greece Descending the Slope of Hope Australia s sugar daddy stalling What housing undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Chicken or egg the unemployment effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd psychology real estate recession robert prechter sentiment sovereign debt steve keen stimulus stockmarket super profits tax technical analysis terry mccrann undersupply united states archives November 2011 September 2011 August 2011 July 2011 June 2011 May

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/our-views/ (2013-02-03)
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  • blog : third wave group
    interesting article by Ambrose Evans Pritchard that shows the folly of Australia assuming an ever expanding China China s carefully managed soft landing is turning harder by the day threatening to deflate the torrid credit bubble of the past three years There is a large potential risk said Zhu Min the deputy managing director of the International read more Category general posts Tags ambrose evans pritchard china What housing undersupply Posted by Tracey Watts on September 4 2011 Leave a Comment One of the principle arguments against the presence of an Australian housing bubble is the Australia is different theme supported by the theory of the Australia s housing shortage problem We have dealt with this myth many times over the past two years most comprehensively in March 2010 Anyone taking a passing interest in the Australian read more Category general posts Tags australia real estate undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Posted by Tracey Watts on August 23 2011 3 Comments You know the refrain Australia was saved from the Global Financial Crisis by the government s stimulus package and the strength of its banks Regular readers will know what we think of that A few reminders The true state of Australian banks Stimulus did not save us Today s Keynesians have learnt nothing It is now read more Category general posts Tags australia banks canada zerohedge Chicken or egg the unemployment effect Posted by Tracey Watts on August 16 2011 Leave a Comment It is a commonly expressed view that as long as unemployment remains low house prices will be supported Australia s low unemployment rate is Exhibit A in any defence of housing price status quo But is this actually so Leith van Onselen has had a look at this issue and found the reverse to be true read more Category general posts Tags australia employment gavin rutland leith van onselen real estate recession The recovery that isn t Posted by Tracey Watts on August 15 2011 Leave a Comment The oft quoted argument for government stimulus is that it is a support for the economy during downturns which can be withdrawn as soon as private sector spending kicks back in What is baffling and scaring the advocates of stimulus is that the expected US recovery is nowhere in sight and even they realise you read more Category general posts Tags employment united states McKibbin you ve done it again Posted by Tracey Watts on August 12 2011 Leave a Comment We ve noted with approval on a number of occasions the views of Warwick McKibbin an ex Reserve Bank of Australia board member Back in March we had this to say in Thank god someone s worried Luckily for us Professor McKibbin still voices his economic views with a frankness that is to be respected In an interview read more Category general posts Tags australia europe sovereign debt united states warwick mckibbin What does this chart tell you Posted by Tracey Watts on August 12 2011 2

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/blog/ (2013-02-03)
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  • contact : third wave group
    effect The recovery that isn t McKibbin you ve done it again What does this chart tell you tag cloud alan kohler australia banks ben bernanke britain china commodities currency debt deflation deleveraging demographia report economy employment europe first home owners global financial crisis great depression greece interest rates international monetary fund ireland japan jim chanos karl denninger kevin rudd leith van onselen louis christopher market history mike shedlock oecd

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  • taking the path less travelled . . . : third wave group
    Property shortage hype A Tale of Two Housing Markets China still worries investors Insider Boycott Brisbane what next Can we learn from Ireland Tidal Report China nothing to see here Tidal Report Market Sentiment at Extremes Tidal Report Irish Lessons Tidal Report Will renting be the new black Tidal Report The Elephant in the Room Tidal Report Arguing over the deck chairs Tidal Report The perfect storm Tidal Report 30 Oct 2010 Will Ben do it again Tidal Report 23 Oct 2010 The true state of Australia s banks Tidal Report 16 Oct 2010 It s the psychology stupid Tidal Report 9 Oct 2010 The US is no canary Tidal Report 2 Oct 2010 The Irish Canary in the Coal Mine Article Australian Housing A Bubble in Search of a Prick Tidal Report 26 Sep 2010 The Confidence Con Tidal Report 19 Sep 2010 Psychology of a housing market Tidal Report 12 Sep 2010 Fudging the Data Tidal Report 4 Sep 2010 The Great Ignored Article Can anything cure the ailing American economy Tidal Report 29 Aug 2010 Bernanke confounds again Tidal Report 21 Aug 2010 The crisis has not been contained Tidal Report 15 Aug 2010 Double Bubble Trouble Tidal Report 8 Aug 2010 The Descent of Man Tidal Report 1 Aug 2010 Stimulus did not save us Article Deflation not inflation is the real threat Tidal Report 25 Jul 2010 Banks now expressing caution Article Today s Keynesians have learnt nothing Tidal Report 18 Jul 2010 Strong jobs market a mirage Tidal Report 11 Jun 2010 The Great Fiddle Tidal Report 3 Jul 2010 Austerity the new black Tidal Report 26 Jun 2010 Stim u less Tidal Report 19 Jun 2010 Cracks appearing in housing s foundations Article The RSPT house price risk Tidal Report 12 Jun 2010 Consumers go frugal Speech Andrew Robb the steady Tidal Report 5 Jun 2010 Little Aussie Battler is battling Comment Property through the eyes of a Frenchman Tidal Report 29 May 2010 More sellers than buyers Video Sit down with Eric Sprott Tidal Report 22 May 2010 Is the bear market rally over Article A mammoth capital strike looms updated Article A mammoth capital strike looms Tidal Report 15 May 2010 Europe crumbles budget stumbles Article Shock and awe may not be enough to save Europe Video Joe Saluzzi on CNBC Tidal Report 8 May 2010 Our fragile markets Article The Rudd mining grab We ve made some changes Tidal Report 1 May 2010 The Case Against Australia Tidal Report 24 Apr 2010 Our Passionate Economist Tidal Report 17 Apr 2010 China on a Treadmill to Hell Video Chanos Says China Property Bubble May Burst Charlie Rose Tidal Report 10 Apr 2010 Sovereign Debt Crisis Article Peak debt approaching as house prices outstrip incomes Tidal Report 27 Mar 2010 Housing Spin Article Frayed String for China s Property Balloon Tidal Report 20 Mar 2010 The Myth of Undersupply Video Ratigan Explains Lehman Report Tidal Report 13 Mar 2010 Too Big to

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/29/ (2013-02-03)
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  • general posts : third wave group
    interesting article by Ambrose Evans Pritchard that shows the folly of Australia assuming an ever expanding China China s carefully managed soft landing is turning harder by the day threatening to deflate the torrid credit bubble of the past three years There is a large potential risk said Zhu Min the deputy managing director of the International Filed under general posts Tagged with ambrose evans pritchard china What housing undersupply Posted by Tracey Watts on September 4 2011 Leave a Comment One of the principle arguments against the presence of an Australian housing bubble is the Australia is different theme supported by the theory of the Australia s housing shortage problem We have dealt with this myth many times over the past two years most comprehensively in March 2010 Anyone taking a passing interest in the Australian Filed under general posts Tagged with australia real estate undersupply Australian banks vulnerable still Posted by Tracey Watts on August 23 2011 3 Comments You know the refrain Australia was saved from the Global Financial Crisis by the government s stimulus package and the strength of its banks Regular readers will know what we think of that A few reminders The true state of Australian banks Stimulus did not save us Today s Keynesians have learnt nothing It is now Filed under general posts Tagged with australia banks canada zerohedge Chicken or egg the unemployment effect Posted by Tracey Watts on August 16 2011 Leave a Comment It is a commonly expressed view that as long as unemployment remains low house prices will be supported Australia s low unemployment rate is Exhibit A in any defence of housing price status quo But is this actually so Leith van Onselen has had a look at this issue and found the reverse to be true Filed under general posts Tagged with australia employment gavin rutland leith van onselen real estate recession The recovery that isn t Posted by Tracey Watts on August 15 2011 Leave a Comment The oft quoted argument for government stimulus is that it is a support for the economy during downturns which can be withdrawn as soon as private sector spending kicks back in What is baffling and scaring the advocates of stimulus is that the expected US recovery is nowhere in sight and even they realise you Filed under general posts Tagged with employment united states McKibbin you ve done it again Posted by Tracey Watts on August 12 2011 Leave a Comment We ve noted with approval on a number of occasions the views of Warwick McKibbin an ex Reserve Bank of Australia board member Back in March we had this to say in Thank god someone s worried Luckily for us Professor McKibbin still voices his economic views with a frankness that is to be respected In an interview Filed under general posts Tagged with australia europe sovereign debt united states warwick mckibbin What does this chart tell you Posted by Tracey Watts on August 12 2011 2

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/category/general/ (2013-02-03)
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  • tidal reports : third wave group
    go Ireland is fast becoming the modern day equivalent of the South Sea bubble and the tulip mania Her fall from grace could not be more complete transformed from roaring Celtic Tiger to bankruptcy in just a few short years We explored Ireland s Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia ireland leith van onselen mike shedlock real estate Tidal Report Will renting be the new black Posted by Tracey Watts on November 27 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 99 The psychology behind home ownership is an incredibly powerful and pervasive force For some the home they own is a direct reflection of social status and how they imagine their worth is assessed by others The aspirational nature of home ownership is a cultural phenomenon that has been on steroids Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia bubblepedia homes4aussies leith van onselen real estate united states Tidal Report The Elephant in the Room Posted by Tracey Watts on November 21 2010 3 Comments Issue 98 It has always been immensely frustrating that Australian officials not only emphatically deny that Australia has a property bubble but also refuse to engage on the issue The question of whether Australia has a housing bubble is generally dispatched with the chronic undersupply argument together with the Australia is different Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia demographia report real estate Tidal Report Arguing over the deck chairs Posted by Tracey Watts on November 13 2010 Leave a Comment Issue 97 The G20 leaders conference has come to an end with the obligatory release of a communiqué outlining what they ve agreed to and a group photo In fact conferences of this type are geared towards producing a relatively innocuous we re all on the same page communiqué with all the meaty discussions Filed under tidal reports Tagged with alan kohler australia banks delusional economics g20 mike shedlock Tidal Report The perfect storm Posted by Tracey Watts on November 6 2010 4 Comments Issue 96 This week Australian banks were greeted with the perfect storm While bank bashing is not a new sport the last few weeks have seen it emerge as the sport de jour We ve seen opposition treasurer Joe Hockey come out and aggressively reposition himself and a reluctant Liberal Party as slayers Filed under tidal reports Tagged with australia banks david llewellyn smith Tidal Report 30 Oct 2010 Will Ben do it again Posted by Tracey Watts on October 30 2010 2 Comments Issue 95 There is the potential for major moves in stock markets this week with two significant events occurring in the United States the direction of any move however is uncertain Mid term elections occur on Tuesday with the Democrats expected to lose control of the Congress Such an event may cause Filed under tidal reports Tagged with ben bernanke deflation deleveraging mike shedlock psychology quantitative easing Tidal Report 23 Oct 2010 The true state of Australia s banks Posted by Tracey Watts on October 23 2010 5

    Original URL path: http://www.thirdwavegroup.com.au/category/tidal-report/ (2013-02-03)
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  • The story silver tells . . . : third wave group
    economy expands than when it contracts The underlying reason for both of these conditions is that a positive trend in social mood causes investors to buy creditors to lend consumers to borrow and spend and producers to increase production while a negative trend in social mood causes investors to sell creditors to withdraw consumers to save and producers to curtail production Silver has an even more pronounced relationship to economic cycles than gold does Figure 1 shows the history of silver prices and economic conditions going back 40 years to 1970 Economic expansions are denoted on the chart as clear areas recessions as shaded bars Notice that all of silver s strong price gains came during economic expansions Then observe that all seven recessions since 1970 have coincided with falling silver prices Finally note that all four crashes in silver those of 1973 1980 1982 and 2008 came during recessions Keep in mind that official statistics from the National Bureau of Economic Research on economic change are imprecise My guess is that the turns in the economy were actually closer to the turns in silver than these shaded bars indicate What happens when there is an inflationary recession Apparently it doesn t matter Silver did not go up during the recession of 1974 1975 which was inflationary On the contrary it had its first modern day collapse of 43 Gold did rise during that time but primarily because it had recently been released from four decades of government price fixing and was still making up for lost time That event cannot recur in today s environment because the price of gold floats continually adjusting to investors moods and outlooks No doubt gold bulls will argue that an inflationary recession can happen again and it can But since both metals recently soared during a period of economic expansion it seems more likely that a change toward recession will have the same relationship to prices that it has had in the past 40 years What s more gold and silver were decoupled from April to October this year just as they were from March to December 1974 When that decoupling ended gold dropped 50 in less than two years To summarize if you are bearish on the economy you should be bearish on silver and if you are bullish on silver you should be bullish on the economy Taking the time honored but repeatedly wrong stance being bearish on the economy but bullish on silver would be to buck the historical odds This chart has something more to say Silver lost nearly half its value from April to September 2011 This very event suggests that another economic contraction is approaching or is already at hand Category general posts Tags economy psychology robert prechter silver social mood Comments One Response to The story silver tells Whatever says December 28 2011 at 2 33 pm This chart has something more to say Silver lost nearly half its value from April to September 2011 This

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  • Is the end game in sight for Greece? : third wave group
    all deposits in the Greek banking system I call it a Bagehot intervention but of course Walter Bagehot would never have recommended bailing out an insolvent borrower Without a credible intervention this process almost always ends the same way There is in my opinion a very high probability that within weeks or months at most Greece will be forced to freeze bank deposits as a prelude to leaving the euro Mexico in 1994 and Argentina in 2001 chose the Christmas New Year holiday season to announce their devaluations Will Greece follow suit If history repeats itself footballer Andrew Demetriou once pointed out I should think we can expect the same thing again And it probably won t end there In my opinion the real risk for Europe in that case becomes a contagion of deposit withdrawal not immediately but at the first sign of trouble in their home countries As households from Italy Spain Ireland Portuguese and other vulnerable countries read every day about hardships faced by Greek families and those it will be noted who trusted the authorities were the worst hit what will they do I know what many of my wealthy Spanish friends are already doing They are moving their deposits to safer havens I suspect that in other countries too anyone who can afford to withdraw money from the domestic financial system is at least thinking of doing so If this process accelerates it may be very hard to maintain domestic confidence in the local banking systems anywhere If Greece gets worse in the next few weeks Europe had already better have a plan about what steps it will take to defend banks in peripheral Europe Once Greece goes even the least sophisticated households in other countries will know what the consequences for depositors will be Deposit withdrawals after all are one of the kinds of actions that different sectors of the economy will take to protect their interests in the face of a crisis even though this behavior increases the likelihood of the crisis This is simply part of the logic of sovereign financial distress declining credibility causes stakeholders to act in ways that reduce credibility further What s more deterioration in the political process is part of financial distress at the sovereign level Remember as Keynes pointed out back in 1922 that resolving these kinds of crises is always political it is about which sector of the economy or class ends up paying for the adjustment Workers can pay in the form of high unemployment and declining wages the middle class can pay by having its savings inflated away private businesses can pay in the form of confiscatory taxes and expropriation creditors can pay through forced debt forgiveness and so on but ultimately someone must pay Politics becomes about deciding which groups will be forced to foot the bill Historical precedents suggest that political fault lines are likely to develop as different groups organizes politically to protect themselves We will probably see this happen

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