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  • The Profits - Turning Gamblers into Traders - Part 2
    to the size of a grapefruit the rise of Sloane Stephens and other relatively unknown players questionable medical timeouts in crucial parts of matches and the resurgence of Na Li Plenty has happened Continue reading Leave comment Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2013 01 australian open womens final azarenkav vs li Jan 26 Horse Racing Form Caulfield Warwick Farm and Hanging Rock Saturday 26 January 2013 Categories Racing by TheProfits January 26 2013 Happy Australia Day to everybody The Moonee Valley card last night ended up being very solid Our best bets didn t go to well but other than those our form was great including picking up the 1500 quaddie Not to mention how the Tennis tips have done 4 4 over the past two days as well The Continue reading 6 comments Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2013 01 horse racing form caulfield warwick farm and hanging rock saturday 26 january 2013 Jan 25 Australian Open Day 12 Predictions and Betting Options Categories Tennis by TheProfits January 25 2013 With a spot in the final up for grabs it will be a no holds bared affair tonight between Federer and Murray For those who looked at the sides of the draw and the potential dates played you were fairly certain that Djokovic would be watching a game tonight between Murray and Federer So who Continue reading Leave comment Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2013 01 australian open day 12 predictions and betting options Jan 25 Horse Racing Form Moonee Valley Australia Stakes Night Friday 25 January 2013 Categories Racing by TheProfits January 25 2013 Welcome back to Moonee Valley on a Friday evening It has been a while since we have seen good

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/page/2/ (2013-02-02)
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  • The Basics of Betfair » The Profits | The Profits
    eyed Pies supporter and instead of backing her team wants to dominate the Hawks even more by laying them as it s a better price due to the backers getting the draw Jenny has set a limit of 120 for her bet today and has calculated that at 2 20 a 100 lay bet will give her a total liability of 120 Jenny opens the market and sees exactly 100 sitting on the market at 2 20 Tom s money Jenny clicks on the price and enters a stake of 100 and then confirms the bet Betfair confirms that her whole bet was matched At the same time Tom can see on the live market that his money is gone and refreshing his page now see s that his bet has been matched So what is the liability and payout to each member 100 on the backing side 120 on the laying side Total money back to either winner is 220 If Hawthorn wins or draws Tom will get the entire 220 back and Jenny will have to payout 120 If Collingwood win Tom pays out 100 and Jenny receives back 220 If you are still confused watch this video Hedging or achieving a Green Book Hedge trading or achieving a green book on Betfair refers to putting on a bet in a race and then laying out so that no matter what happens you achieve green on every single result in that market with a profit on any result before it has finished EPL Soccer Tottenham travelled to Arsenal a few weeks back in one of the most important games of the year Statistics said that it would be a high scoring game and my personal view was that Tottenham was a better team overall I expected both teams to come out firing and to not hold anything back Looking at the Betfair market instead of taking an Over 4 5 goals or similar bet I felt the correct score market was the place to make some easy money I ended up backing the 2 3 score Arsenal 2 Tottenham 3 for 54 17 at 34 odds Why 54 17 I hear you ask It was a of exotic bankroll The game started and played out perfectly Tottenham took a very early 2 0 lead and the price shortened into 15 As there was still 20 minutes until half time I decided to ride it out to half time It just so happens that Arsenal went on a rampage and scored two goals back and the price at half time had shortened to 8 As Australia only allows in play betting on Horse Dog Harness racing I had to call up to lay off Using an online hedge calculator I entered my matched odds and stake The calculator told me that I needed to lay 230 22 against the correct score for a guaranteed profit of 176 05 regardless of the result I called up Betfair and layed at

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2012/03/the-basics-of-betfair/ (2013-02-02)
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  • The early bird DOES get the worm » The Profits | The Profits
    m sure you get the picture this means that if you were wrong about the selection being value at the time of placing the bet and the horse drifts in the market you will be given the best of the three totes or the official on course starting price My number one early pick this week is Buffering at the 3 20 quote on Bet365 He is a super horse proved that he has come back strongly first up winning at Moonee Valley and has 2 wins 1 placing over the 1000m distance That placing was behind Black Caviar and Hay List not bad form There is rain predicted for the next few days and due to the 1200m win at Moonee Valley being on a dead track that gives me the confidence he will handle the track There is no doubt that there are other horses in the race with quality but they have not proven themselves against a horse like buffering I can t see the 3 20 quote lasting and expect him to be around the 2 60 mark at maximum on the day with the potential to jump at around 2 20 There is a time and a place for each different book maker listed above Luxbet allows us to multi up win bets and place bets in the one multi Betstar is once again offering double odds Max 50 on the Group 1 races on the weekend you would be stupid to bet anywhere else for those races and Betfair consistently offers the best odds if you bet on every race for the whole day The others all have special offers that can t be matched with bonuses for loses best of all tote exotics and many other specials To be a winner in this

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/?p=3838 (2013-02-02)
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  • Antepost market betting – Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate » The Profits | The Profits
    the main point Glencadam Gold has won solidly in all four starts in Australia but the biggest issue is that this horse hasn t beaten anything Let me name the four horses that finished second and third to it the last two starts Kelinni Reuben Percival Peal of Bells and Gazza Guru Now let s me serious these four horses are not Caulfield Cup quality This horse has been better treated than a heavy weight champion on the fields it has competed against The final point is that he got to dominate the race and lead from start to finish with no pressure It was a disgraceful jockey effort behind him and it was just simply too easy I want to be clear I am not potting the horse He has a lot of ability but we have no bar to measure him against I am more than happy to declare that he won t be lower than 4 50 on the day of the race and should never be this short this early The other factor you have to remember there are three spots up for grabs this weekend and if any of those horses win impressively they will come in big time in the market while Glencadam Gold will drift a little bit Now let s look at the Cox Plate Pierro is 2 82 on Betfair to win the Cox Plate This horse is a superstar but once again it is absolutely stupid to be backing this horse in antepost markets this far out You would think he is entering a race against classes below him That is certainly not the case Once again what happens if he gets injured during the run this weekend or simply just hangs on while More Joyous wins by 4L You are better off taking the longer odds on a horse who should win well this weekend or one who is having a nice spell before the big race My final point involves the two major cups and the plate I couldn t find an exact figure on how much it costs to fly a horse out here to have a go at the cups and plates but Andrew Hawkins AndrewNJHawkins has given me the figure of around 125 000 Americain Dunaden Jakkalberry My Quest for Peace Tac De Boistron and Brigantin are just six of the international raiders who are in the line up for the Caulfield Cup with many more in for the Cox and the Melbourne Cups These are seasoned professionals who have been toughing it out for most their lives Do you really think Glencadam Gold measures up in the CC The value seems to be with the internationals in the market and if you can do your form lines around them you could pick some nice prices A very final note How happy will you be with your 2 80 for Pierro or 4 50 for Glencadam Gold on the day of the Cox Plate or

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/?p=3819 (2013-02-02)
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  • Betting in-play and spotting good odds » The Profits | The Profits
    need to make sure the wind is still blowing I personally made a call to a friend who was at the final who confirmed the weather conditions were consistent with previous QTRs You can generally get the information you need from watching the TV but you really want to be sure that it hasn t died down The second factor is the odds before the match You will find that the better teams do generally finish better so that is something that will affect the odds on the markets This can actually work in your favour if you are wanting to bet on the underdog like happened in this situation with Sydney The final factor is using the previous statistics to your advantage For example moving away from the AFL Grand final to the NRL Grand Final Melbourne Storm had won 37 of the last 38 games they had lead at half time in Further more in the finals series they had kept all three teams to under 12 points Melbourne was leading 14 to 4 at half time all of these factors lead to towards the Storm In the AFL situation we are looking at the previous three QTRs There was an average of 33 points scored to the WITH wind end each QTR while an average of 10 points was scored towards the end kicking AGAINST the wind You then also look at the fact that the only QTR Hawthorn had played kicked AGAINST the wind had resulted in them scored 1 point Everything is pointing towards a Sydney win Determining the odds from here is hard I then want to look at further factors The largest score to the Hawthorn end in the 3 QTRs so far was 19 points while the smallest towards the Sydney end was 29 points This gave me the confidence to believe that Sydney had a 10 point advantage at very minimum going into the final QTR With Sydney trading at 2 20 on Betfair I had them a 1 50 chance to win from this situation and had a large confidence factor on this bet This not only determines if you are taking the bet but how much you will bet This confidence and value made it a large bet The start of the final QTR certainly didn t turn out the way we wanted it with Hawthorn kicking the first two goals but the advantage of the wind played into Sydney s favour and they ended up winning by 10 points one off the advantage we gave them Sydney was already 1 in front at 3QTR time We were able to get on for my money when Hawthorn had scored those two goals and layed Hawthorn at the odds of 1 35 Different circumstances allow for different factors Weather is a unique factor and is one of the easiest to judge Until you are confident don t go large with your bets Please Note All of the above are the

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/?p=3688 (2013-02-02)
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  • Picking a winner – revealing The Profits secrets » The Profits | The Profits
    a consistent horse but is trained on every prep to win one or two races It is targeted towards them and due to such poor runs in other races will jump at massive odds in those races It won the Oakleigh Plate I believe at 28 and won at 30 on Saturday 11 Feb 2012 as one of our tips first up from a long spell For the first month of Horse Racing bets we didn t profit We didn t bet big at this stage because it was still the learning stage Adjusting as we went you see certain things along the way that just click in your head The most important thing i can say to you in this article is stick to only a small section of the racing market Saturday big meet Melbourne is our niche that we excel in We tried to do Sydney Perth QLD but Melbourne is where our passion was and we know many of the horses I wouldn t even think about betting on the VFL or SAFL in the footy so it makes sense that I don t look to other states unless a handy Melbourne horse makes its way interstate Let s have a look at our example horse Social Rank It was paying 17 on the Tote and about 20 on Betfair When we saw the price we almost fell off our chairs Al s Magic Miss was the favourite paying about 3 40 Let s have a look at all the positives in Social Rank to start Recent Form Has won 3 from last 5 races One loss in a much harder race by only 1 8L Recent Starting Prices An important factor when determining value Social Rank started at 4 80 or less in 4 of last 5 starts and was only 11 in a much harder race two back Track conditions It was a Good track condition this day and Social Rank has a 3 2 from 7 record on Good In Run Barrier The track had been suiting front runners and Social Rank was always going to the front from this barrier Times Probably the most important factor for us here Social Rank ran a 1 02 4 over 1100 last up This is a extremely fast time and Al s Magic Miss hasn t gone anywhere near this time in the past Weights Not the best weights but with a claim we thought 56 5kg was reasonable Now that you have seen all the positive factors and you know that we are writing up this horse because it won for us it is also important to note that Al s Magic Miss had a lot going for it as well With no weight on it s back in 52kg and in equal class from last up 0 5L loss it was suited here Runs well on Good and loves the distance Good form lines to come from It ran 2 nd in this

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2012/02/picking-a-winner-revealing-the-profits-secrets/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Picking a winner– Identifying bad influences and eliminating them » The Profits | The Profits
    minutes alone time and hope they believe it s for form Put on some relaxing music that helps you think You should focus on your picks and remove any other troubles from your mind Confidence Some people call it bragging when you have a good day on the punt but in reality bragging contributes to your future confidence If people around you see you as successful and start to respect you you feel the same way Confidence is essential in any job you perform in life and so is happiness Have a watch of the following TED Talk about The happy secret to better work http youtu be fLJsdqxnZb0 Other Influences We follow many punters in all types of sports on the internet and there are some clear trends you can see in their plays More importantly you can tell when one of them is suffering a bad streak or hard pressed for money as they tend to look wider in the markets than they normally would Ask yourself at the end of every form session are these really the best picks or have I gone too wide We always find going over our tips and comparing those to someone else we respect in the industry is a good start It may not change your picks but it gives you a learning curve for the future and also reinforces your best bets of the day Bankroll We will cover off on Bankroll more in a future article but bad Bankroll Management can make even the best tipper a non profitable punter It is VERY important to have your unit limits set at an appropriate value compared to your bankroll as without this you will have a hard time turning a large profit going forward Ignore the amounts others are betting

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2012/02/picking-a-winner-identifying-bad-influences-and-eliminating-them/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Size matters – management of a successful bankroll » The Profits | The Profits
    where we have a monster week and on occasion have a shocking week after that It has become less often recently as we have identified the problems in our system caused by overconfidence in tips after a big win The same applies for a bankroll Don t act swiftly Give the bankroll two weeks to settle If you continue to grow your bankroll you are on the right track and a 25 increase in unit betting may be what you want to do It is always better to raise your betting unit size by less than what you are thinking you should instead of more After all you are trying to build your bankroll in the long run and if you have a sound profitable strategy in place and that involves not putting your bankroll at risk Bankroll Bet Types Once again a very grey area It all depends on how you work and think Here is a basic setup of our Horse Racing bankroll betting amounts Maximum bet 3 units Maximum E W 2 units Average Bet 1 unit The above looks pretty obvious well think back to the past months How many times have you bet more than 3 times above your average It happens it is learning You need to set a maximum limit you are willing to bet on any decision regardless of how sure it is Measures available to you Self control is essential when managing a bankroll We have all gone and put a crazy bet on in the get out stakes Get out stakes no longer exist to you Remove this sentence from your vocab There are measures available to those who don t have the proper self restraint to control their bet limits You may say this is a cop out but people need limitations when they are betting for themselves and have a lack of control A large majority of the big bookies online such as SportsBet Betfair doesn t have this facility will allow you to limit your maximum bet size I think even if you are in control of your betting this is a brilliant function to have turned on Especially for when you may have had a few too many brews and the Premier league is about to start at 2am at the pub It is about limiting losses Record everything You can t do your tax without reporting all your financial transactions and purchases to your tax accountant and managing your bankroll is the same Start up an excel spreadsheet of your own If you need inspiration have a look at the spreadsheet posted after every race meeting by the guys at Red Belly Sports www redbellysports com au It not only keeps them to account in house but also shows any visitors how they are performing Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2012 02 size matters management of a successful bankroll 4 comments Skip to comment form AM October 24 2012 at

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2012/02/size-matters-management-of-a-successful-bankroll/ (2013-02-02)
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