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  • Never count out a seeded player » The Profits | The Profits
    position and he ended up going on to win the match 6 2 7 6 and 6 3 in the final three sets Florian Mayer seeded 25 started a short 1 18 favourite against 6 60 hope Rhyne Williams Mayer was playing some average tennis early and lost the first two sets 2 6 3 6 Mayer traded out to 4 00 after losing the second set while Williams traded into 1 28 It wasn t easy from here but Mayer went on to win the match taking the next three sets 6 2 7 6 14 12 tie break and 6 1 Radek Stepanek seeded 31 was up against Viktor Troicki Interestingly due to recent form Troicki started the 1 58 favourite compared to Stepanek 2 68 Stepanek started the game playing some decent tennis but Viktor was simply switched on winning the first two sets 7 6 6 4 Up two sets Troicki was matched on Betfair at a low of 1 07 while Stepanek was matched at his match high of 12 Stepanek then turned his game around winning the next two sets 6 3 6 3 and finishing off the match 7 5 There were several opportunities to get on Stepanek during this game and the best spot was most likely after he won the third set convincingly While I haven t mentioned them there were quite a few fight backs from 2 sets to 1 down by seeded players which served up good odds especially the Verdasco match The seeded players were not to be outdone in round two either Jerzy Janowicz seeded 24 lost his first two sets 6 7 3 6 against relatively unknown Indian player Somdev Devvarman Single ranking of 551 Jerzy started the match a 1 23 favourite while Devvarman was 5 30 After he lost the second set Jerzy traded out to 5 60 while Devvarman traded into a Betfair low of 1 22 Jerzy then went on from here to win the next two sets 6 1 and 6 0 before serving out the match 7 5 Unsurprisingly both Mikhail Youzhny and Florian Mayer were knocked out by unseeded players in the second round with Mayer losing in straight sets There is a lot of money to be made through smart in play bets You need to set an amount that a certain player should be trading at when you are making a bet for you to be profitable long term and if you are getting that price bet it To put on a single in play bet calling up isn t much of a hassle and the results can be massive It is important to note that in games that include high seeds such as Novak Djokovic or Serena Williams you can bet in play on the Betfair website or app on Winner markets effectively Please Note All statistics used above are taken from Betfair All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2013/01/never-count-out-a-seeded-player/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Australian Open Day 8 Predictions and Betting Options » The Profits | The Profits
    5 games for Federer Raonic has kept it close in their 3 previous meetings But this is grand slam tennis This is on the big stage This is high pressure tennis Advantage Roger Suggested Bet Federer 5 5 games at 1 83 at Sportsbet Richard Gasquet vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga Playtime 3 rd on Rod Laver Arena Review of Round 1 Matches Player Opponent Richard Gasquet vs Albert Montanes Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Michael Llodra Score 7 5 6 2 6 1 6 4 7 5 6 3 Time on Court 96 minutes 106 minutes 1st Serves in 41 68 60 60 85 71 1st Serves pts won 36 41 88 49 60 82 2nd Serve pts won 17 27 63 15 25 60 Break pts saved 0 1 0 2 2 100 Break points won 6 10 60 4 8 50 Review of Round 2 Matches Player Opponent Richard Gasquet vs Alejandro Falla Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Go Soeda Score 6 3 6 2 6 2 6 3 7 6 6 3 Time on Court 100 minutes 123 minutes 1st Serves in 40 69 58 58 100 58 1st Serves pts won 32 40 80 48 58 83 2nd Serve pts won 18 29 62 24 41 57 Break pts saved 1 2 50 3 4 75 Break points won 6 13 46 3 4 75 Review of Round 3 Matches Player Opponent Richard Gasquet vs Ivan Dodig Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Blaz Kavcic Score 4 6 6 3 7 6 6 0 6 2 6 4 6 1 Time on Court 145 minutes 79 minutes 1st Serves in 63 112 56 49 69 71 1st Serves pts won 55 63 87 37 49 76 2nd Serve pts won 24 49 49 13 20 65 Break pts saved 3 5 60 4 5 80 Break points won 5 13 38 7 9 78 Summary France vs France on a Monday afternoon on Rod Laver Arena Gasquet leads the head to heads 4 3 however they have not played each other since 2009 What makes this matchup even better is the fact that both players are in sensational form coming into the tournament on solid winning streaks They did however both come in with clouds over their health but that has since been knocked out of the park with some solid early round performances Although it appears that Tsonga has had an incredibly easy run to the 4 th round he has been tested in parts He found himself down 3 5 0 30 on Soeda s serve in the second set before reeling off 6 straight points to get the break back and went on the win the set in a tiebreak Gasquet found himself down a set and a break to Dodig before wrestling back control and breaking the spirit of Dodig taking the fourth and final set 6 0 He has been playing some great tennis although he has been digging himself into wholes at times on

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2013/01/australian-open-day-8-predictions-and-betting-options/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Australian Open Day 7 Predictions and Betting Options » The Profits | The Profits
    in a fantastic performance on Friday Almagro faced no break points and only dropped 18 points in 16 service games Previous Meetings May 2012 Round 4 French Open Result Almagro d Tipsaravic 6 4 6 4 6 4 This result occurred on Almagro s preferred surface of clay and he got the job done comfortably He won even though he was serving at 50 of first serves compared to 69 from Tipsaravic December 2012 Abu Dhabi Exhibition Result Almagro d Tipsaravic 2 6 7 6 6 2 This match occurred in the first proper outing of the season leading up to 2013 This was a semi final and Tipsaravic had just come from defeating Andy Murray in straight sets Almagro was awarded victory through to the SF by default due to opponent withdrawal Because this was the first professional hitout for Almagro for the season you can justify the first set going to Tipsaravic due to Almagro getting the cobwebs out Having watched that game it certainly appeared as if that was the case Almagro fought back in the second set taking it in a tiebreak before breaking twice in the 3 rd set to make the Abu Dhabi exhibition final The Final Word Taking into consideration the performances of both players this tournament it is incredibly hard to go beyond Nicolas Almagro He is serving brilliantly and has only dropped his serve 3 times in 11 sets with the only losing sets coming in tiebreaks meaning when he is broken he has either broken personally already or claws the break back at some point during the set In terms of time on court Tipsaravic has spent just under 3 and a half hours more on court which is a pretty massive difference after only three matches My prediction here is for Almagro to get the job done in 4 close sets Suggested Bet Almagro H2H at 1 72 at Sportsbet 5 set refund Confidence 70 H2H Almagro lead 2 0 Kei Nishikori vs David Ferrer Playtime 2 nd on Rod Laver Arena Review of Round 1 Matches Player Opponent Kei Nishikori vs Victor Hanescu David Ferrer vs Olivier Rochus Score 6 7 6 3 6 1 6 3 6 3 6 4 6 2 Time on Court 159 minutes 110 minutes 1st Serves in 89 121 74 48 71 68 1st Serves pts won 63 89 71 37 48 77 2nd Serve pts won 18 32 56 15 23 65 Break pts saved 4 6 67 3 5 60 Break points won 7 16 44 6 15 40 Review of Round 2 Matches Player Opponent Kei Nishikori vs Carlos Berlocq David Ferrer vs Tim Smyczek Score 7 6 6 4 6 1 6 0 7 5 4 6 6 3 Time on Court 138 minutes 158 minutes 1st Serves in 67 97 69 65 108 60 1st Serves pts won 48 67 72 48 65 74 2nd Serve pts won 15 30 50 24 43 56 Break pts saved

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2013/01/australian-open-day-7-predictions-and-betting-options/ (2013-02-02)
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  • The Profits - Turning Gamblers into Traders - Part 4
    are some strong fields at both venues today with a few stand outs in each Don t forget to also have a look at our Tennis form guide which has been VERY profitable the past two days As always Continue reading 4 comments Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2013 01 horse racing form flemington and rosehill saturday 19 january 2013 Jan 19 Big Bash League Final Match Predictions Tips And Bets Categories T20 Big Bash by TheProfits January 19 2013 After 34 matches of enjoyable and often intense T20 cricket we are left with the Perth Scorchers and the Brisbane Heat to battle it out for the BBL02 title at the WACA Ground on Saturday night At certain times of the competition this match up would have been thought of as an impossibility Both franchises Continue reading Leave comment Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2013 01 big bash league final match predictions tips and bets Jan 19 English Premier League Week 23 Game Predictions Tips and Bets Categories English Premier League by TheProfits January 19 2013 It s another week of fantastic matchups with the likes of Chelsea versus Arsenal and Tottenham versus Manchester United to entertain us Chelsea needs an injection of confidence if they are to beat Arsenal as their home form has been well below par whilst Spurs will need plenty of luck again if they are to repeat Continue reading Leave comment Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2013 01 english premier league week 23 game predictions tips and bets Jan 18 Australian Open Day 5 Predictions and Betting Options Categories Tennis by TheProfits January 18 2013 Round 2 certainly finished with a bang 2 2 on best bets 2 3 on

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/page/4/ (2013-02-02)
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  • The cream rises to the top » The Profits | The Profits
    for him He will progress onwards again this prep and could be winning a Group 1 this prep Secret Liaison has always shown a load of potential This was seen three preps back when winning her final race of that prep over Miss Stellabelle handy and Shopaholic beat Mosheen Her runs 2 preps back started very slow with a good run being put down 5 runs into that prep when running 2 nd at Caulfield at 18 The final two runs of the prep resulted in a 3 rd at Randwick and 9 th in the Oaks in Adelaide Both of those were in company beyond her so were good form lines Returning this prep she showed nothing her first three runs until she reached her pet distance of 1600m Her first run at the distance was certainly disheartening This is where we made a mistake with the horse and jumped off after that run stats suggested she should have won that first 2000m race Next start at 2000m she did fail but the next run at 1600m at 25 1 she won at the distance and followed that up with a 6 50 win at Caulfield She just keeps on improving with a close 2 nd to Mabsam at Flemington and winning last start at Mornington at another handy price around 6 I would be shocked if she doesn t win her next start African Pulse has won 4 of 5 starts in what I would call medium to low quality grades with a 0 10L second in 2YO HCP class The four races where he has failed to place even though he ran very well and was never out of them completely were the Oakleigh Plate Newmarket Darby Munro and Gosford Guineas Returning last prep at Flemington you knew that he LOVES the track he goes at his best down the straight track as proven three preps back and most importantly was in the lowest quality race of his career Having carried around 57kg for most of his career the 60k was no issue and he bolted in as our best bet of the day at the 4 quote African Pulse cut his leg during training after that run and 150 days later is still yet to return to the track Keep an eye out for his next prep it will be a game changer Onto our favourite horse of the year even ahead of Dance With Her and Galbraith is Happy Trails As talked about earlier we saw stars watching his last prep and were expecting big things How about starting with a 5 win first up over the Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed and a horse that was flying in Gossip Girl He raced on the regular swooping pattern that day and it paid off In an interesting training move that did suit the pattern of the day second up we were on Happy Trails again at around the 15 quote who was made to run

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2013/01/the-cream-rises-to-the-top/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Big Bash In-Play Betting » The Profits | The Profits
    from the final allocated delivery of the game Favouritism changed four times in the last 20 minutes of the match despite attractive odds still being available throughout the same period of time It was a large differential of change in odds over a short time span While the game certainly offered many quick momentum changes some of the big price spikes due to over analysed extremes like dot balls boundaries were not in context to the game situation and is where the smart punters made some nice profits These opportunities are becoming more apparent in T20 matches and are certainly worth keeping an eye out for if you want to make a quick buck A great method of using the in play Big Bash betting to your advantage is by laying off stake By lay betting and backing the loser there can be great opportunities available by having a free hit at profit or saving your original stake without losing a cent I ll again use the Adelaide vs Brisbane game as a subject of interest Hypothetically you place 100 00 on Adelaide to win at their starting price of 1 84 During the Luke Pomersbach and Joe Burns partnership you feel that Brisbane are beginning to take control and notice that Adelaide are still paying 1 30 in play This is a great opportunity to lay your original stake of 100 00 It creates the below possibilities The original 100 00 stake on Adelaide to win at 1 84 ADELAIDE WIN 184 00 BRISBANE WIN 100 00 Lay off the original 100 00 stake on Adelaide to lose at 1 31 including commissions ADELAIDE WIN 131 00 BRISBANE WIN 100 00 It means that you either make 53 00 profit if Adelaide win or breakeven if Brisbane get the points In the case of the example Brisbane as we know won which meant that the original 100 00 stake would have been saved and no money lost or won You need to ensure that you have the right timing when laying off stake as there is no point wasting away the profit of your original stake especially when your backed team is in a strong position The Big Bash in play betting options have certainly opened up great possibilities to make profit There will be value on offer it is just a matter of keeping an understanding of the match situations at hand and waiting for the right betting opportunity to come It is important to remember that Betfair allows you to place a bet at a much lower price than the current market trading price for example the 1 31 mentioned above before the match starts You can cancel this unmatched bet at any time via the online system before it is matched while if you were to put this on in play as an Australian you have to call up Please note that you will have to ask for the bet to remain in play Please Note

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2012/12/big-bash-in-play-betting/ (2013-02-02)
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  • T20 Big Bash | The Profits
    Melbourne Renegades 4 points clear of the competition and guaranteed of a home semi final at its fortress Etihad Stadium But all game outcomes were overshadowed and hijacked by the extraordinary incident involving Shane Warne and Marlon Samuels Being at the game myself I found the circumstances compelling Continue reading Leave comment Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2013 01 big bash league round 8 match predictions tips and bets Jan 03 Big Bash League Round 7 Match Predictions Tips and Bets Categories T20 Big Bash by TheProfits January 3 2013 Coming into the penultimate round of the Big Bash League we have only one team guaranteed a finals birth and a log jam of five others all fighting for the remaining three positions The Renegades are the only team to have reached double figure points with the Stars and Hobart Hurricanes on their tail with Continue reading Leave comment Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2013 01 big bash league round 7 match predictions tips and bets Dec 30 Big Bash League Round 6 Match Predictions Tips and Bets Categories T20 Big Bash by TheProfits December 30 2012 The Melbourne Stars are the new competition leaders after the Renegades suffered its first defeat at the hands of the Perth Scorchers The Stars are certainly looking like the team to beat and are now clear title favourites at 3 30 The Perth Scorchers have proven that fortunes can change very quickly in T20 cricket after Continue reading 5 comments Permanent link to this article http www theprofits com au 2012 12 big bash league round 6 match predictions tips and bets Dec 27 Big Bash In Play Betting Categories Articles T20 Big Bash by TheProfits December 27 2012 The Big Bash League

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/category/t20-big-bash/ (2013-02-02)
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  • Antepost market betting – Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate » The Profits | The Profits
    the main point Glencadam Gold has won solidly in all four starts in Australia but the biggest issue is that this horse hasn t beaten anything Let me name the four horses that finished second and third to it the last two starts Kelinni Reuben Percival Peal of Bells and Gazza Guru Now let s me serious these four horses are not Caulfield Cup quality This horse has been better treated than a heavy weight champion on the fields it has competed against The final point is that he got to dominate the race and lead from start to finish with no pressure It was a disgraceful jockey effort behind him and it was just simply too easy I want to be clear I am not potting the horse He has a lot of ability but we have no bar to measure him against I am more than happy to declare that he won t be lower than 4 50 on the day of the race and should never be this short this early The other factor you have to remember there are three spots up for grabs this weekend and if any of those horses win impressively they will come in big time in the market while Glencadam Gold will drift a little bit Now let s look at the Cox Plate Pierro is 2 82 on Betfair to win the Cox Plate This horse is a superstar but once again it is absolutely stupid to be backing this horse in antepost markets this far out You would think he is entering a race against classes below him That is certainly not the case Once again what happens if he gets injured during the run this weekend or simply just hangs on while More Joyous wins by 4L You are better off taking the longer odds on a horse who should win well this weekend or one who is having a nice spell before the big race My final point involves the two major cups and the plate I couldn t find an exact figure on how much it costs to fly a horse out here to have a go at the cups and plates but Andrew Hawkins AndrewNJHawkins has given me the figure of around 125 000 Americain Dunaden Jakkalberry My Quest for Peace Tac De Boistron and Brigantin are just six of the international raiders who are in the line up for the Caulfield Cup with many more in for the Cox and the Melbourne Cups These are seasoned professionals who have been toughing it out for most their lives Do you really think Glencadam Gold measures up in the CC The value seems to be with the internationals in the market and if you can do your form lines around them you could pick some nice prices A very final note How happy will you be with your 2 80 for Pierro or 4 50 for Glencadam Gold on the day of the Cox Plate or

    Original URL path: http://www.theprofits.com.au/2012/10/antepost-market-betting-caulfield-cup-and-cox-plate/ (2013-02-02)
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