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  • Competitive Advantage | Doddsville
    15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/competitive-advantage/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Computershare | Doddsville
    Services Link Services Comments 13 Riding the coattails of owner managers February 7 2010 7 55 pm Investing alongside owner managers carries risks as well as the obvious benefits By Nathan Bell TII Posted in Nathan Bell Also tagged Gerry Harvey Harvey Norman Kerr Neilson Key man risk Owner manager Platinum Asset Management Servcorp Comments 31 Striking a blow for owner managers January 25 2010 10 54 am Poker machine manufacturer Aristocrat has a history of failing to breed executive talent Chief executives have left in controversial circumstances on several occasions forcing the board to appoint an outsider unfamiliar with the company s apparently troubled inner workings As investors we re also outsiders and it s often difficult to gauge the depth of management talent inside Read More By Nathan Bell TII Posted in Nathan Bell Also tagged Flight Centre Owner manager private equity Comments 6 Intelligent Investor Analysts Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh Gaurav Sodhi and Jason Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/computershare/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Link Market Services | Doddsville
    Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh Gaurav Sodhi and Jason Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/link-market-services/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Moat | Doddsville
    15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/moat/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Why Marcus Padley is dead wrong on note issues | Doddsville
    higher spread above the bank bill rate then the Australian versions I have emailed through a graph to the info tii email that displays this If you could put it somewhere for others to see it might make them re consider these new hybrids Also if people are considering these fixed interest securities it might pay to do some research on fixed interest managed funds Before everyone blows up at that suggestion these are a great way to access offerings and securities that retail investors simply can t get ie syndicated loans to some of the worlds largest companies ranking as senior debt Not to mention the above scenario of obtaining higher returns from the overseas issuances from the exact Australian bank One final point for the managed fund fixed interest option and diversification Equity can gain the maximum benefit from diversification from holding around 12 securities Debt Credit needs around 3 times more or 36 securities to properly spread risk I imagine most investors don t have the capital let alone the time to achieve this Reply Gareth Brown TII said Posted March 5 2012 at 9 22 pm The article also misrepresents misunderstands the realities of diversification which are thus a diversified portfolio of underpriced bets underpriced portfolio a diversified portfolio of overpriced bets overpriced portfolio Diversification merely takes out most of the noise and increases the likelihood that you ll get what you have coming so to speak A diversified portfolio of dumb ideas is a dumb idea Adding one or two overpriced ideas to an otherwise intelligently constructed portfolio has a less dramatic effect but it nonetheless detracts from portfolio quality and expected outcomes If we buy a portfolio of 20 overpriced hybrids and only one sours we d have been better off in term deposits And if none sour then it s probably the sort of environment where we would have done much better in ordinary equities Taleb s barbell strategy here term deposits mixed with ordinary equities makes much more sense than a diversified portfolio of overpriced hybrids The bracketed disclaimer might be the most relevant part of Padley s article It s the only part that makes sense to me Reply John S Reply March 6th 2012 at 12 09 am I think you are being a bit harsh Gareth the paragraph a couple above the disclaimer is clear and seems to sum up the situation nicely namely these are overpriced securities which sort of serve the purpose of giving a bit of yield and won t do much harm unless the market goes up or down My crystal ball is not good enough to predict a stationary market for the time period these securities will be on issue so I guess I ll have to stay away from them Reply Mars Reply March 7th 2012 at 6 25 pm Spot on Gareth and nice post Greg To put it another way risk is the chance you won t get the return you expect A lot of small poor performers will reduce risk and guarantee well poor performance Reply Ben G said Posted March 5 2012 at 10 46 pm To my mind the flood of hybrids from non bank corporates is driven largely by the change in S P s methodology going back maybe 18 months ago which made it easier for corporates to get equity credit Funnily enough Moody s changed at around the same time but they went the other way making it more difficult Anything with a reasonable prospect of being called within a decade usually gets no more than 25 equity from Moody s and probably less So I would imagine that future hybrid issues will likely come from those corporates rated only by S P such as AGL Tabcorp Otherwise the instrument will either need to be structured such that it will be unattractive to investors because it will be subordinated AND long dated and hence the pricing will blow out or they will just issue vanilla bonds at lower pricing than an expensive hybrid that is considered 100 debt by Moody s anyway As there aren t that many corporates that are only rated by S P I expect the current wave of hybrids will be a passing phase I m sure Gareth will be relieved That and S P may just change the methodology again which probably will trigger an early call Reply Karl Withakay said Posted March 5 2012 at 10 59 pm I too happened to watch the above mentioned show as I couldn t believe what I was hearing and to find you guys writing about him the very next day and having never heard about him before I did a google and took quite a liking to the guy as every second article he seems to have written is about Buffett or value investing in some form or another but that quickly soured after reading between the lines when it appears that he has a bee in his bonnet towards anyone following the value investing philosophy I know differing opinions is what makes a market but I now wish I could go back to not knowing who he was after reading quotes like Man quoting Warren Buffett has other hand in back pocket summing up intelligent investing as unintelligent investment and If investing the Warren Buffett way is so good why isn t everyone doing it excuse me Mr Padley but name me one chartist who has ever made the top 500 BRW rich list to go alongside all those long term intelligent investors who make the list year in year out I could go on but I would just prefer instead go outside and watch the grass grow Reply 2BFrank said Posted March 5 2012 at 11 17 pm So what do you advocate for retail investors to get access to Fixed Income A Bond fund with a 0 5 1 management fee doesn t that cancel out the benefit

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/why-marcus-padley-is-dead-wrong-on-note-issues/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Income Securities | Doddsville
    equity By Gareth Brown II Posted in Debt Gareth Brown Opinion Also tagged ASIC SEEK SEEK Subordinated Notes Comments 6 Marcus Padley responds March 9 2012 8 00 am Marcus has kindly responded to Greg s post on notes earlier in the week By Jason Prowd II Posted in Greg Hoffman Opinion Also tagged motes Comments 8 Intelligent Investor Analysts Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh Gaurav Sodhi and Jason Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/income-securities/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Motes | Doddsville
    end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/motes/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Correlation or causation? | Doddsville
    the economy would be a lot more diverse export orientated and stronger if the focus of govt policy making was not principally aimed at protecting the banks It is as if the value of the residential mortgages is the main reason for decision making It will not only be the naïve and overly optimistic public that ends up duded I find it a bit rich the banks not crying poor They are the very well informed fools who pumped RE prices up chasing loan interest They deserve no sympathy from any quarter and certainly no public bailout should it go pear shaped As far as I am concerned they can collectively go and correlate a lake then jump in it Reply Jase Greenslade said Posted May 19 2011 at 12 51 am 12 months ago there was complete denial that real estate was in trouble but now the realization is beginning to dawn on many that something terribly serious is about to occur in Australia Australian housing is vastly dramatically overpriced by all reasonable measures The recent analysis by The Economist is right on the money and anyone will see from the excellent blogs on AustralianPropertyForum com just how overvalued Australian housing really is http australianpropertyforum com pages blogs The bigger the boom the bigger the bust and the property boom that began in Australia in the nineties evolved into the greatest real estate bubble known to mankind The bust that s coming will be a doozy As 2011 unfolds the spruikers will come to understand that real estate in Australia is dead for generations During the next two years we can expect to see vacancy rates and inventory levels surge to unprecedented levels as house prices collapse by up to 40 or 50 in most parts of Australia This might sound extreme over the top But how over the top were the 200 to 300 rises in house prices we saw over the past decades A 50 fall is nothing in the scheme of things it just brings prices back to a fair level The bubble is dead Long live the new new paradigm where an average family can finally afford a decent home in Australia It s been a long time coming but soon it will be time for the bears to party Bring it on Jase G Australian House Price Crash Forum Reply Gaurav Sodhi TII said Posted May 19 2011 at 10 22 am I think the point Gareth is trying to make here is that we can t look at statistical evidence and assume we know which way causation runs because that s not something stats can show It s impossible to use statistics to prove causation It s why cigarette companies can claim straight faced that there is no evidence that smoking causes cancer and why we ll probably never know for sure whether Verrender is right Important point to make Gareth Reply Dave Reply May 19th 2011 at 12 36 pm Yes I know the point that Gareth was trying to make but he made a mess of it because his example was based on a misunderstanding of what someone else had written It s unfortunate really because he ended up criticising an article that generally agreed with his views Reply Leigh said Posted May 19 2011 at 12 01 pm Let s get this clear A housing bubble occurs when we have a rapid increase in price of property over a short period of time The property market is said to be built on sentiment and extra inflated pricing due to both greed and credit Australia s situation is this since 2003 the properties prices have barely moved since 2008 credit has been very tight and there has been only one rather small price increase when the government relaxed conditions for first home owners So what many are syaing and correct me if I am wrong That for approximateley since year 2000 nearly 12 years Home owners have been buying properties within a margin certain price range Now lets remember that property owners are generally Mum and Dad Australia I cannot for a minute understand that a complete generation of people would start off loading their property for a large drop in price to pit them self in a worse position then when they started What you guys that love shares forget to realise is that these are homes that house people At the first sign of negative growth people dont off load Home owners are not shareholders owning 1230 of value A home owner has a real committment vs a shareholder who commits and loses only a small amount of money You cannot compare Australia to the US are they had a real property bubble that was built very quickly There was not a generation of people that where being wiped out but more like a few years of high risk property investors who could walk away from property with no recourse You can get as technical as you like when you have to compare words such as correlation and causation you are getting desperate as a property bear To answer any questions yes there will always be people who need to sell due to circumstances prices may stagnate or even decline but I think even the less intelligent can see that they won t see generations of Australians running for the hills after they hand there house keys It would be crazy to suggest most Australians would be left with a debt and no house due to a property collapse Aggain the US has no recourse loans and Australia as not had massive increases in prices at least not in the last 10 years I read these same old articles of negative commentators when in the 90 s I question the interests of any of these authors writers I bet there is a special interest in the share market Then when I read negative commentary on the share market I

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/correlation-or-causation/ (2013-02-03)
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