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  • Macro Environment | Doddsville - Part 2
    the success of what appears to be fraudulent Chinese corporations might say something about the bigger picture By Gareth Brown II Also posted in Gareth Brown International investing Tagged Bronte Capital China Fraud Fraudulent Chinese companies John Hempton Kerrisdale Capital short sellers Comments 11 Do historical means mean much December 17 2010 9 48 am It may be hard to believe now but from the 1950s to about 2000 the academic and investing worlds were united behind a common idea that the price of resources would continue to decline while the price of manufactured goods continued to increase By Gaurav Sodhi TII Also posted in Gaurav Sodhi Resources Tagged development Prebisch Singer resources Comments 8 Chanos on China December 15 2010 5 07 am If China holds the key to Australia s future economic prosperity it also holds the key to future downturns A very successful contrarian thinks such a downturn is overdue By Gareth Brown II Also posted in Gareth Brown International investing Tagged Australia housing bubble China bubble Jim Chanos News Corp Comments 26 Newer posts Intelligent Investor Analysts Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh Gaurav Sodhi and Jason Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15

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  • The carbon tax sideshow | Doddsville
    and airlines all claiming calamity suffered only minor falls Some falls no doubt occurred in expectation of the announcement rather than following it so this may understate things But destructive share price falls were strangely absent When assessing companies investors are best advised to concentrate on far more important issues like management quality competitive position growth strategies and valuation The carbon tax with generous helpings of compensation is largely a sideshow Don t let it nor CEOs and politicians bleating about it distract you from the real task of investing Few policies have provoked the strong reactions of the carbon tax Is all the whole enterprise really worth all the hassle If you have a view one way or the other or have specialist knowledge of particular industries affected leave your comments below VN F 1 9 20 1166 please wait Rating 0 0 5 0 votes cast This entry was written by Gaurav Sodhi TII posted on at 9 47 am filed under Gaurav Sodhi Macro environment Resources Stocks and tagged carbon tax emissions trading pollution Bookmark the permalink Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post Post a comment or leave a trackback Trackback URL Doddsville podcast postponed Previous Entry Good management or just good luck Next Entry 10 Responses Add Yours Discussion DougK said Posted July 24 2011 at 8 48 pm I for one am very annoyed that coal mining companies and others are spending my money via tax deductions on an advertising campaign which can only be good for the TV networks and the advertising companies There must be a price on carbon pollution the sooner the better Whether it is a tax or an emissions trading scheme is irrelevant The efficient and well managed companies will prosper the sluggards will be left behind The same scenario plays out in every time there is a change in how the economy and society are managed The cries of We ll all be rooooned emanate from the usual suspects The same cries which greeted the Superannuation Guarantee the floating of the dollar ending Tariff walls and numerous other reforms These are the same companies which are looking for subsidies whenever there is a pothole in the road These are the sorts of companies which I would never invest in Carbon pollution reduction schemes have been part of the political landscape in Australia for 5 years and as part of the global scene for at least two decades Managers who have not planned for these reforms have failed miserably They are not up to the task Reply Troy Prideaux Reply July 25th 2011 at 11 11 am These industries certainly have the right to protect defend their own interests It can confronting to those opposing their views but at least it s semi transparent as opposed to the backroom lobbying that has gotten out of control from time to time Of course it s the role of our journalistic media to provide us with objective

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  • Carbon Tax | Doddsville
    and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest

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  • China: A view from the inside | Doddsville
    pm filed under Gaurav Sodhi Macro environment Resources and tagged China Hanlong Group supercycle Bookmark the permalink Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post Post a comment or leave a trackback Trackback URL Business quality An effective acid test Previous Entry Doddsville podcast July 7th 2011 Next Entry 9 Responses Add Yours Discussion Anthony said Posted July 6 2011 at 2 52 pm There are some very interesting podcasts that the BBC did about China at http www bbc co uk podcasts series worldbiz all they are very interesting to listen to as well as a series of documentries about investment bubbles Reply Brian Hawkins said Posted July 7 2011 at 5 07 pm Interesting summation Gaurav Any clue as to the seniority of the speaker within Hanlong and do you know which Aussie companies they have bought into Reply Gaurav Sodhi TII Reply July 7th 2011 at 6 08 pm He sits on the board of a few of the companies Hanlong has stakes in so I assume he was fairly senior But he did look awfully young The two he mentioned were Moly Mines and Marenica Energy a molybdenum miner and a uranium miner respectively I ve had a look at Moly Mines in the past huge project that will require massive capex The Chinese are now funding projects that in normal times wouldn t have a hope of getting developed Reply Ben Reply July 9th 2011 at 6 27 pm Hi Gaurav It s a little off topic but I wanted to ask whether you had any information regarding Galaxy Resources Your article outlined the drive within China to go to greener solutions Galaxy as a potential major player in the Lithium industry is banking on a global and particularly Chinese move towards electric cars My understanding is there is a large push in this direction within China Galaxy have seen a 60 drop in share price in the last twelve months or so Do you have any comment or insight or is there likely to be any upcoming info from II in the near future Again apologies for the off topic but sort of relevant question Cheers Ben Reply Gaurav Sodhi TII Reply July 12th 2011 at 1 03 pm Hi Ben no need to apologise Unfortunately I can t really discuss stock recommendations on Doddsville I can answer in more detail and free from fear of our compliance manager on ask the experts at Intelligent Investor I also wrote a blog post about lithium a little while back which you can find at the link below or by typing lithium into the search function http blog intelligentinvestor com au doddsville reality check for the lithium boom That should explain the difference between a spodumene ie rock ore producer like Galaxy and a producer of lithium brines It s a crucial distinction that changes project economics Troy Prideaux Reply July 12th 2011 at 1 42 pm IIRC Galaxy Resources won some substantial

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  • Hanlong Group | Doddsville
    Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/hanlong-group/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Another nail in the retail coffin? | Doddsville
    the big profits I m waiting for your review on retail before I sell harvey and Westfield Reply Anton said Posted June 9 2011 at 8 48 pm Certainly agree buying somethings in retail Australia is a rip off Service providers such as http www priceusa com au and http www shopusa com au offer consumers the ability to purchase items from the US and have them shipped here with some fees and charges and are yet still cheaper than buying here Reply Tony Reardon said Posted June 10 2011 at 8 11 am I am a book lover and do try to support local bookshops but the price difference and availability on line is too compelling in most instances Try the price comparison site http booko com au for a very interesting comparison of prices locally and overseas for any book you are interested in often 50 cheaper including delivery Reply Christian said Posted June 10 2011 at 2 22 pm I agree with most of the sentiments here and buy books dvds online I also own Westfield shares though I m wondering if that really is a good idea On the one hand I feel that Westfield Australia margins will be squeezed in future Is this an industry in decline On the other hand if retail is hurting why can t I get a park at Westfield Belconnen on a Saturday morning Or are people just going there to hang out Reply ELJ said Posted June 10 2011 at 2 46 pm Online is definitely where retail is heading However I dont think its the end of the traditional bricks and mortar store They will still exist however in a much different way Apple Stores and Nespresso stores are good examples They encourage you to come in and Play or Try for free with great service and often dont even want you to buy in store but would rather you buy online Bricks and mortar stores will need to offer sensational personalised service to survive Tony been using and recommending booko com au to everyone definitely worth it Reply Gareth Brown TII Reply June 10th 2011 at 3 41 pm That s quite insightful ELJ But it s worth noting that both Nespresso and Apple own the product being sold so they don t care where you buy it In fact it s another avenue for the manufacturer or product owner to skip the retailer and sell direct much like through the internet In other words this doesn t mean JB Hi Fi and Harvey Norman don t face significant hurdles we can come in try their sensational service and buy the products elsewhere but it might bode well for Billabong and perhaps allay some concerns over Westfield Good thinking Reply Mars Reply June 11th 2011 at 10 53 am Yeah point taken but I have a different take For brands that are sort after this may be true Apple for now ARB Zara Nespresso for now etc But not all products come uner this category If a destination brand sees value in bricks and mortar that s a powerful statement about the even greater value of bricks and mortar to a more commoditised brand And here is the point destination brands are the exception Most brands are fairly commoditised but guess what they still have to be brought to market If the likes of JB Harvey Norman Myer etc can serve as showrooms and can find a way to get a commission from the manufacturer then I see no reason why they can t have a future But even this may not be necessary to ensure then survival stores After all showroom or store need not be an either or proposition As the stores further reduce their costs by moving in the showroom direction and having their own online stores they may become more price competetive with the overseas retailers Reply Jason P Reply June 13th 2011 at 3 09 pm I think ELJ makes a good point It seems to me that large global integrated brands are shifting towards experience retail While this means it s likely that companies will still want retail space my concern is that they re likely to need significantly less floor space as compared to the more traditional model Furthermore this process has a long way to go as the integration between brand s online offline offering is nascent at best We seem to over estimate the pace at which technological change occurs I think it s easy to see the future of retail will be significantly different to the last 50 years however its much harder to predict how long it ll take for this minority report esque retail environment to become the norm That said this process is likely to be fast tracked while the differential between online offline pricing remains so large While I agree that there is a large portion of the population who d prefer to go to a store and be sold a product they too will be tempted online for a price They may be willing to pay a 10 20 premium for the convenience and peace of mind that comes from buying from a real person but when that premium is 50 100 even the most diehard Havery Norman aficionado will venture online Reply Lee Reply June 24th 2011 at 10 48 pm Harvey Norman sensational service I think Gerry should actually visit his franchised stores and experience clueless salespeople poor service and trying to chase a salesperson down for help only for them to give you the cold shoulder I wouldn t touch HVN shares with a barge pole Poor recommendation from TII Reply Matt C said Posted June 10 2011 at 3 44 pm In regards to clothing and the knowing your size issue technology is rapidly overcoming that issue as well It won t be long before your computer will be able to size you using your webcam and you can try the clothes on at home I just saw a demo of it today On the other hand I also saw a demo of the order online but then turn up at the shopping centre to pick stuff up and get some freebies eg coffee to go with it One of the key determinants will be how much of the shopping is about the buying the object vs the experience I think there are more price oblivious people out there than the people that visit this blog are likely to be apologies for the atrocious grammar there Reply Mars said Posted June 10 2011 at 5 07 pm One question that is not being asked is how long the current huge price differential between in store on line will be maintained Reply Ashleigh said Posted June 10 2011 at 7 07 pm I m from Adelaide A little country town I was in Sydney last week and a couple of things really struck me 1 People in the Apple store on George St Not just a few on a Saturday but huge great crowds I wish I d taken some photos The right brand and image and your physical store front will sell things like hot cakes 2 The sheer amount of retail Everywhere you go the great hedonistic society is flogging and furiously consuming everything from latte to whitegoods with a side trip down jewellery clothing and everything else you can think of 3 In a big city the sheer number of people spending is gobsmacking You really do need to come from a smaller population centre and go somewhere big to appreciate the complete madness of the big city For those who live in this every day this is normal you need to be an outsider to be able to observe and get tired by the complete madness around you All this leads me to conclude that overseas retailers moving in for a kill might have stars in their eyes but in the big cities the competition is huge and the locals who want to drop prices could kill the new entrant if they wanted And in spite of the wailing about internet shopping I really can t see shopfront retail going away any time soon Just go count the number of places flogging women s clothing or jewellery or shoes or you name it in any big city CBD area Are all those busy people rushing from here to their with their busy busy lives really going to take the time out to buy some other way Or will they buy things that catch their eye as they rush past A migration of some things and some people yes a majority I m not convinced Reply daniel Reply June 18th 2011 at 11 26 pm Ahhh Adelaide the murder capital of Australia Reply Rowland Browne said Posted June 10 2011 at 7 13 pm I have been to 2 weddings this year both brides went into an Australian shop and decided what they wanted and bought their dresses from China sending their measurements first Both dresses were under 500 online of over 3000 in Australia Both were fantastic with no problems experienced by either bride If people will buy their wedding dresses online I am sure the retail sector is in for a major shake up in the next few years Reply Mars Reply June 11th 2011 at 10 36 am Very interesting examples Nevertheless we all tend to get carried away with the current trend Online is growing fast yes but from a small base I think we will eventually reach a happy medium which will leave plenty for bricks and mortar Back to your example think about the number of brides who have issues with their dress and have to keep going back to the shop I think it s a stretch to think Chinese mail order will completely displace shops Reply Ron Turner said Posted June 11 2011 at 3 21 pm I am looking forward to the day when I can get a haircut on line Reply Phil O said Posted June 11 2011 at 4 08 pm It s interesting how much of a premium people will pay to walk away with a good eg a new lap top the moment the idea enters their head to buy one I include myself in this comment It takes rational thought and patience to go home and order it through another method after having it in your hand And sometimes it s only a perception you ll go home with it as they sometimes need to order it in anyway Reply Aaron said Posted June 12 2011 at 12 29 am Retail is dead Ok that is an overstatement for now But the fact of the matter is everything in this country is ridiculously overpriced When Sony laptops can be purchased at less than half the price for exactly the same machine in the US who in their right mind would buy them here Same for books I use the site mentioned above booko com au same for film same for music same for clothing and for consumer goods generally As a uni student I just bought a textbook from the UK for literally half the price my university bookstore sold it for True some people aren t comfortable buying online yet or just aren t tech savvy enough to do so or maybe just like the feel of seeing and touching the goods they buy in person before spending money on them But the fact of the matter is that taking a long term view more and more people are going to be buying things they need online from overseas It doesn t need to be a majority of people just a significant enough number to put a serious dent in the bottom line of Australian retailers And of course the strong AUD if it lasts will only accelerate this process It may take 5 years it may take 10 it may even take 20 but in the long run unless the price of consumer goods in Australia drops to levels that are comparable to the rest of the world nobody in their right mind will buy anything but food here Reply Mars Reply June 14th 2011 at 9 45 am And that is the whole point unless the price of consumer goods in Australia drops to levels that are comparable to the rest of the world nobody in their right mind will buy anything but food here You should have saved your breath on your first several paragraphs and just stated that one line But think about it if you and I can buy things so cheaply on line what s to stop an importer buying that even more cheaply issues like GST aside Now if people are willing to pay a small premium to buy from a shop then why is the demise of retail in Australia guaranteed Reply Gareth Brown TII Reply June 14th 2011 at 5 37 pm Mars and Aaron have brought up something that fits with my way of thinking on the issue I don t believe bricks and mortar retailing is dead But they have been too greedy and kept too much of the margin from the AUD boost in recent years and why not if you think you can get away with it which they have in the short term Anyone who s counting on that boost to be permanent by say putting a normal PER on today s earnings is likely to be disappointed Retailers on the whole aren t facing death in my opinion but there will be big margin pressure at some stage from the internet from importers and from whomever else wants to line up to take a crack at what is a high margin and high cost structure There s a lot of fat to be taken out of this structure and it ll hurt retailer profits Also I d note that given the cost structure of today s retail businesses the threat isn t linear If say 10 20 of customers move online it ll more than knock 10 20 off profits it ll really whack them Reply LDR said Posted June 12 2011 at 11 37 am My wife and i have bought several whitegoods online usually after a fair bit of internet research For our last purchase a bosch washing machine we did still go to a retailer to see if they would match the price or give any other sort of benefits In the end we did go with the retailer they were a little bit more expensive but that was more than made up with the free removal of our old machine On the clothing front ive bought shoes online but only because i know what size i am and i ve worn similar models previously Due to variable sizing issues I m not sure that the shop fronts will ever go away unless perhaps items can be changed faster i e deliveries returns are faster Good thought from ELJ Perhaps merchandise brand owners will start opening more self operated stores potentially only 2 or 3 per major population centre with the aim of allowing people to try things out before they buy it online More of a testing try on service rather than a direct sales service But the more i think on it that still leaves a niche for stores that stock a diverse range of brands too since most would prefer to be able to compare and contrast In that case maybe department stores will become ultra low margin and provide that service more than being a sales based business which is already starting to happen i think Hard to know exactly what will transpire but i think web based sales are definitely going to grow relative to shop fronts In the end its all a matter of price If a retailer cant provide an item and any other beneficial associated service eg ability to try many thing on in one visit for at least a similar price to online then they will be the losers Reply Tania said Posted June 12 2011 at 5 42 pm We are tech savy even to be reading a blog There are still many people out there who are not likewise and will continue to prefer a physical shop Personally I will only buy music online or from a site that has a physical shop also This is because I don t have faith that I will be getting a genuine item from the many discount online sites it s sometimes almost impossible to distinguish a counterfeit Reply Peter Cairns said Posted June 14 2011 at 6 48 am I buy a lot of stuff online now as there is usually a greater choice available and a better chance of finding exactly what I want And it saves running around town from shop to shop only to find no one has exactly what I want and doesn t know what I m talking about After throwing my money away in the past on your Millers recommendation I ve definitely got burnt fingers Reply Gail Bowman said Posted June 14 2011 at 9 10 pm We buy TV s etc online now Most of the time the retail outlet don t deal with warranty anymore so why bother with them We buy all of our stationary online now too it s so much easier It s a pitty it s so easy as I used to like getting out of the office Reply Geoff said Posted June 21 2011 at 3 05 pm Not only are retailers losing sales outright to online stores but another swag of their sales need to be price matched to an on line price as savvy buyers come into the store armed with on line pricing For some goods where

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  • Zara | Doddsville
    Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is

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  • Causation | Doddsville
    Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside

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