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  • What matters: An investing evolution | Doddsville
    market the Aussie dollar the sustainability of the euro and numerous other risks Otherwise you could expose your portfolio to wipe out events such as bank collapses or runaway inflation 10 Life matters It s easy to become despondent when your portfolio is performing poorly But never forget that your partner your family your health and your friends are more important than anything else Work and investing is only ever a small part of your life so don t neglect the rest Take time to stop and smell the magnolias that s James being as contrarian as ever Ed So that s what I m doing After 12 years it s time for a break and a re evaluation of life s priorities I ll never stop being an investor but there are other things in life too Thanks to Greg Steve Nathan Gareth Gaurav Jason Tony Wayne Michael Tim Brad and James I ve learnt an enormous amount from all of you What s more I ve enjoyed the journey immensely VN F 1 9 20 1166 please wait Rating 4 7 5 15 votes cast What matters An investing evolution 4 7 out of 5 based on 15 ratings This entry was written by James Greenhalgh TII posted on at 9 18 am filed under James Greenhalgh Management Portfolio management psychology Strategy Bookmark the permalink Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post Post a comment or leave a trackback Trackback URL Doddsville podcast 13 September 2012 Previous Entry The Australian dollar Still overvalued Next Entry 14 Responses Add Yours Discussion Mars said Posted September 18 2012 at 11 07 am James all the very best and I hope we keep bumping into you in Doddsville Reply James Greenhalgh TII Reply September 18th 2012 at 11 53 am Definitely Mars Likewise and thanks for your valuable insights You ve been an asset to this community Reply Mars Reply September 18th 2012 at 12 44 pm Really I thought I d been a royal pain in the backside I guess I ll have to try harder Reply Matt said Posted September 18 2012 at 1 51 pm James I will miss your insight both on stocks officially covered and maybe more so on those that are not I believe of all the analysts at II your investment style most closely aligns to my own There have been a number of times over the years that I have noticed companies which I have owned or considered which are not covered by II but have shown up in the staff portfolio Adcorp Kresta Clarius come to mind Almost without fail it has turned out you are the staff member who has owned it All the best with what the future holds I fully endorse the decision to place family and life choices above work and financial goals As they say no one ever looked back on their life and said they wished they had spent more time working

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/what-matters-an-investing-evolution/ (2013-02-03)
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  • OrotonGroup on shaky ground | Doddsville
    52 pm Turned out to be an excellent call James and a great example of mispricing of risk Just curious as to why the mention of the Ralph Lauren licence was not mentioned in the Aug 11 review but in an Ask The Experts question It is probably low possibility but a second airport for Sydney is always on my mind for Sydney Airport As is a global slowdown which will impact passenger numbers Cheers Reply Mike said Posted August 20 2012 at 1 14 pm There s plenty of examples Any company with a single operating mine is subject to earthquake risk just look at what happened to NZ miner Pike River Coal after the disaster in its mine Changes to legislation regarding Financial Planning could devastate financial and accounting firms Resources and energy companies exposed to just one commodity face the risk that prices and or demand falls significantly Biotechs and pharmaceuticals companies could face the same issue if just one of their products is found to be harmful Imagine if Cochlear s recently recalled implant caused pain and suffering when it failed and it was forced to surgically remove all of them All companies face earthquake risk to some extent Banks face counterparty and fraud risks constantly Suppliers face the risk of default on payments It goes on and on Reply Joe Saleh said Posted August 20 2012 at 1 15 pm Would Wal Mart ever become interested in the Australian market Reply Neil P said Posted August 20 2012 at 1 56 pm Good article James I used to hold some MMS shares but sold them at about the time of the Henry review You remember it was to be a root and branch look into our unbelievably complex taxation system Root and branch what a joke Somewhat naively I actually thought there might have been a real legislative change to salary sacrifice arrangments which benefit MMS customers I sold at about 4 5 and they are trading at 11 94 today My current opportunity loss amounts to 85000 Ouch I guess it all comes down to the pricing of risk One can also use increasing stop losses as one rides up the risk curve to ameliorate some of that earthquake risk you mentioned Just a thought though I know you do not countenance the use of stop losses Cheers Reply Mark Wade said Posted August 20 2012 at 7 20 pm The bull case for Oroton is premised on a continued store rollout more so in Asia and respectable same store sales growth pushed along by new releases and category extensions such as clothing and jewellery There is also a case for optionality involving the surplus capital that is released from Ralph Lauren Cabcharge springs to mind as a company with its core taxi fare payments operation under siege The grains marketing companies ABB Graincorp and AWB once prospered under a single desk export scheme Drug companies even contract manufacturers like The ill fated Pan

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/orotongroup-on-shaky-ground/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Mcmillan Shakespeare | Doddsville
    days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they share their

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/mcmillan-shakespeare/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Ansell: Flowers in the desert? | Doddsville
    Ansell strikes me as a classic takeover target Competitor SSL International was taken over by Reckitt Benckiser in 2010 and defensive strong cash flow businesses are attractive acquisitions in a difficult economic environment I m slightly surprised Ansell is still listed 4 There s some evidence of shareholder friendly behaviour During the August 2011 mini crash Ansell announced a share buyback I also like seeing that management highlights both the positives and negatives in their announcements see page 5 of the 2012 half yearly results 5 On the face of it the stock doesn t seem overly expensive Consensus earnings per share expectations are around 1 10 for 2013 putting the stock on a prospective PER of 12 6 Not super cheap perhaps but it might be if the market is under estimating the potential growth There s much more work to do but I ll be watching Ansell s 2012 results when they re released in a few days It s a company that one of our analysts might do further work on once reporting season has concluded in September Of course most potential buy candidates fall at one of the numerous hurdles we make them jump Our Dragon s Den review process is designed to test all new ideas thoroughly and perhaps the original reason for ceasing coverage on Ansell will remain valid But my point is this While you should never fall in love with a stock you should never write one off either Things change over time and new buy ideas can emerge from the unlikeliest of places Sometimes they re even the result of mistaken identity What do you know about Ansell How does your ideas generation process work Have you found stock ideas in unlikely places VN F 1 9 20 1166 please wait Rating 4 0 5 15 votes cast Ansell Flowers in the desert 4 0 out of 5 based on 15 ratings This entry was written by James Greenhalgh TII posted on at 12 03 pm filed under James Greenhalgh Stocks and tagged ansell comasec stock ideas Bookmark the permalink Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post Post a comment or leave a trackback Trackback URL Twitter Wrap 8th August 2012 Previous Entry A LinQ to an excellent return Next Entry 2 Responses Add Yours Discussion Mark Wade said Posted August 10 2012 at 12 55 pm Ansell was not particularly forthcoming with details about Comasec either in the release or investor conference call despite rigorous questioning Aspects that Ansell refused to disclose either didn t know in the first place or weren t willing to share included the Acquisition multiple Acquisition costs EBITDA margin both pre or post expected cost synergies Asset split between intangibles and tangibles Overlap in the product range Overlap in the number of customers Geographic sales spread within Europe Historic growth rate of Comasec Spare manufacturing capacity Differences in manufacturing capacity between Ansell Comasec Likely capex profile Details of plans to integrate

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/ansell-flowers-in-the-desert/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Ansell | Doddsville
    568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they share

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/ansell/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Takeover arbitrage: watch the conditions | Doddsville
    bid for Gerard Lighting seems vanilla enough the drawn out bid by private equity firm PEP for Spotless Group see Resistance is futile for Spotless Group was much more worrisome for the arbitrage speculator Under the following conditions amongst others PEP could withdraw its bid 1 If the All Ordinaries index fell by 20 2 If Spotless s earnings fell short of an agreed amount 3 If debt funding was not forthcoming and 4 If equity funding was not forthcoming Some of these conditions have now been satisfied and the Spotless bid looks likely to proceed But whenever a bidder imposes a number of onerous conditions it s far more likely to fall over So if you re considering takeover arbitrage make sure you read the conditions attaching to the bid very carefully Particularly when a private equity firm is involved Conditions are there for a reason and only one needs to go unfulfilled for you to be left sitting on a rather unpleasant loss Do you dabble in takeover arbitrage Have you learned any lessons What are some of your tips VN F 1 9 20 1166 please wait Rating 4 3 5 9 votes cast Takeover arbitrage watch the conditions 4 3 out of 5 based on 9 ratings This entry was written by James Greenhalgh TII posted on at 11 31 am filed under James Greenhalgh Stocks and tagged gerard lighting spotless group takeover arbitrage Bookmark the permalink Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post Post a comment or leave a trackback Trackback URL Twitter Wrap 18th July 2012 Previous Entry Twitter Wrap 25th July 2012 Next Entry 4 Responses Add Yours Discussion Joe Saleh said Posted July 24 2012 at 2 42 pm Had a look at Sigma when it went from approx 1 to 50c Bought it at 50c then it went down to 30c eek Sold out at about 51c i think it broke off its generic and other brands herron for about 60c per share in the end Was before i was a member of II but was a learning experience Was relieved to get out without a loss Lesson learnt don t fire all your guns at once If I hadnt and had the courage of my convictions i could have bought more at 30c and it would have been a spectacular arbitrage Reply Stephen Mattani said Posted July 24 2012 at 7 48 pm I jumped into the Gloucester Coal takeover by Yangzhou Coal It went through OK however the takeover proceeds were a combination of cash Yangzhou script a top up down the track if the Yangzhou share price is below a certain level in 18 months time All good except the Yangzhou share price has been decimated along with all other coal miners recently so even with the top up I ll only come out even It was a lesson learnt only cash arbitrage takeovers in future Reply AJ007 said Posted July 26 2012 at

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/takeover-arbitrage-watch-the-conditions/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Gerard Lighting | Doddsville
    15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/gerard-lighting/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Spotless Group | Doddsville
    they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/spotless-group/ (2013-02-03)
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