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  • Short Sellers | Doddsville
    Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/short-sellers/ (2013-02-03)
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  • What’s Facebook worth? | Doddsville
    I My geek self tells me the way it owns everyone s private details that marketers can harness is going to make its future phenomenon But my value investor self tells me this is in the too hard basket I m torn Reply Greg Hoffman TII Reply January 10th 2011 at 1 52 pm You re probably right on both fronts that my portfolio allocation is a bit high and that it should most likely fall into the too hard basket On the first point I m a lot more concentrated and aggressive in my personal investing approach than most of The Intelligent Investor s members On the second I m likely suffering from overconfidence bias or a desire to pick the next Google etc Anyway with only fictitious funds on the line it s a fun discussion Reply Neil said Posted January 10 2011 at 1 40 pm I think they are in another bubble I have a facebook account as do many of my friends However I rarely use it perhaps look in briefly once a fortnight or so and have noticed nearly all my friends of my age 50 have the same usage or even less There is probably only a small percentage 10 that use it every day and these all seem to be in the 10 20 age group My main use is to contact people so that all correspondence can then be done outside facebook By contrast I would use google several times every day Facebook may have 80 million registered but probably 70 million rarely go there The penny and MV will drop one day when advertisers realise that their supposed audience is much smaller than was claimed Reply Lee said Posted January 10 2011 at 1 50 pm Yeah I d put 10 of my portfolio in risky but high reward if rewards there be Just joined up myself I m genX and found so many old friends already it s good fun I know some early adopters are leaving but doesn t that just re inforce that FB is no longer edgy and ground breaking it s re defining mainstream Reply Lee said Posted January 10 2011 at 2 05 pm Wow 5 6 on a speculation There s no long term earnings history here so by our Graham esque definition surely it s not an investment In any case I think the following article sums up my thoughts exactly http edition cnn com 2011 OPINION 01 07 rushkoff facebook myspace index html It may still be dominating in 5 years time but it equally wouldn t surprise me if we re all on to the next big thing by then and Facebook is but another vague memory in the IT world You re really rolling the dice if you put any money into it Reply Simon P said Posted January 10 2011 at 2 32 pm Price value and a margin of safety with a P E of 25 you can hear Mr Graham groaning with how much you are paying for the future cash flow And given the fickleness of people surely at some stage people will get bored and move onto the next hype and Mr Graham s groaning will be proved correct You can easily see social networking sites sharing the same fate as technology stocks at the end of the noughties That said due to sheer number of people using it and the potential future growth as more developing nations get online I would be prepared to allocate no more than say 5 probably starting out around 3 and building over time As Gaurav says low probably high impact Just on a side point as a 25 year old that has never had a facebook account I prefer to call meet people it would be good for 5 minutes to catch up with people from high school etc However I obviously wasn t good friends with them then and as time is extremely valuable I would delete my account very quickly Surely there are many people out there in a similar boat Reply Steve Johnson TII Reply January 10th 2011 at 4 23 pm It s not 25 times earnings but 25 times revenue The big difference with Google is that when people search they are actively looking for something often something to buy It s a great time to get in front of potential customers and when you only pay per click it s very easy to measure your return on investment we spend a lot on it at TII My view is that people are in a very different mood socialising on Facebook and are much more likely to ignore advertising so it s going to be harder to get a dollar out of them A friend who works at Ebay said they are already spending a fortune on it but it s not generating returns good brand awareness apparently The argument is that they ll potentially be able to sell a truck load of stuff because they know what you and your friends are interested in Your friend likes the new Kanye West album why don t you buy it now The 50bn price tag is 10 per person on the planet half of whom don t have any money Seems steep to me but it will be interesting to see how it evolves Reply Simon P Reply January 10th 2011 at 5 12 pm 25 times revenue makes it even more speculative How can one justify paying such a large premium given the information available and the uncertainties it seems Goldman must be playing similar games to Gordon Geeko Sounds like this shadow equities market will become the next big money making sector for all those investment banks with fresh taxpayer money burning holes in pockets I would love to buy Harvey Norman shares in the near future however with their unrelenting marketing campaigns I can t bear to walk into a

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/whats-facebook-worth/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Facebook | Doddsville
    Comments 2 What s Facebook worth January 10 2011 9 30 am A deal with Goldman Sachs recently valued the social networking business at US 50bn or about the same size as the National Australia Bank Is that too much By Gaurav Sodhi TII Posted in Gaurav Sodhi International investing Stocks Also tagged Goldman Sachs deal Comments 30 Intelligent Investor Analysts Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh Gaurav Sodhi and Jason Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/facebook/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Goldman Sachs Deal | Doddsville
    origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/goldman-sachs-deal/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Chanos on China | Doddsville
    dollars some euros some gold and some stocks that are more US focused News Corp QBE Berkshire Hathaway So I m comfortable with my position Readers can come to their own conclusion The Intelligent Investor has written several articles over the past six months about broader international diversification In any Aussie blow up my AUD cash will be worth less in international terms but it ll still buy more Australian assets than it does today And I don t want to move all my cash away from Australia I still think it s an if rather than when John Hempton wrote an interesting article on the Bronte Capital blog today suggesting Australian investors consider international diversification Reply Shane said Posted December 16 2010 at 9 00 am Thanks for the article Gareth and I think it is a real concern I would offer these few insights from an article I just read on the same issue from Gavin Wendt of Mine Life Weekly Resource Report http marketing refercorp com download files 31755 1287550 Gavin s 20 20Digger 20Article 20 20December 202010 pdf He says that while the price of housing in China has roughly doubled in the last decade or so house prices have risen from a much lower base than in the developed world the average disposable income levels have more than doubled in the same time span and the rate of growth in house prices has been significantly slower than GDP growth since the late 1980s He also says household debt as a percentage of disposable income in China is just 44 but that more than half of the developed countries carried debt levels that exceeded their income including recent trouble child Ireland which is close to 200 I will quote him again on the Chinese savings ethic In addition to maintaining lower debt levels Chinese homebuyers typically make a deposit of at least 20 on their purchase rising to as much as 40 for a second home This is very different to the savings rates of countries like Australia and the USA and this flows through to the deposits made on homes Would you care to comment I worry as much as the next man about the top issues but I like to remind myself regularly of the quote that says was it Peter Lynch or quoted there The share market climbs a wall of worry And Lynch s counsel is that it is better to stay fully invested most of the time Reply Greg Hoffman TII Reply December 16th 2010 at 9 55 am Hi Shane Try the Chanos vs China article that Gareth linked to in his post for some more on the bear side of those arguments The CNBC Squawk Box segment is also relevant Reply John S Reply December 16th 2010 at 12 40 pm It s eerie how similiar those arguments are to a commentary I read on the Spanish housing market and why it wasn t going to follow the US into freefall Reply Shane said Posted December 16 2010 at 11 29 am Greg I have just read the Chanos vs China article and had come back to see if I could retrieve or edit my comments It really does look scary but how scary and when nobody knows Just before this I had signed up for the Motley Fool Options service because I have been getting more worried over the last few months especially after reading the April 16 2008 This Time is Different A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises Reinhart Rogoff Harvard University PDF article it s much shorter than the book and free online but I changed the link when I saved it sorry So I am hoping to learn how to protect some of my portfolio in the near future Cheers Reply Richard Whan said Posted December 16 2010 at 11 41 am Great post Gareth Hamish Douglass has recently been talking of China rapidly approaching peak steel intensity and being at a stage of its development where its demand is likely to start shifting to more sophisticated resources Sadly we principally supply them with the ingredients for steel iron ore and coal the prices of which could fall markedly if demand starts to wane at the same time as their supply has been ramped up Reply Gareth Brown TII Reply December 16th 2010 at 10 50 pm Another member recommended Douglass s ASX speech last month It s well worth listening to Here s a link for anyone that wants to hear the Hamish Douglass speech Reply Ben said Posted December 16 2010 at 5 02 pm Thank you for the post I completely agree that Chanos arguments are worth considering They are rather compelling but much like Greg Hoffman s comment regarding the Alaskan pipeline there are gaps Sure no economy has maintained 60 fixed asset investment for more than a few short years and the lack of occupancy in much of the fixed asset investment at least in the residential and office context is a sign that the fundamentals just aren t behind the continually increasing property prices in China A number of my colleagues have read this article and they all have differing view points Some say a correction of sorts would be better for the longer term but I think an important argument to remember is that the size of China s population means that it will take an incredibly long period of time for it to fully industrialise and also grow the wealth of its people Even if there is a relative collapse in fixed asset investment the sheer size of China means that its demand will remain high compared to advanced nations It is estimated that the Chinese economy must grow at 8 p a in order to keep the majority of the population above the subsistence line This is significant I agree with the point that the Chinese have been quite prudent in their policy

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/chanos-on-china/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Australia Housing Bubble | Doddsville
    Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/australia-housing-bubble/ (2013-02-03)
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  • China Bubble | Doddsville
    By Gareth Brown II Posted in Gareth Brown Also tagged Chinese bubble Chinese real estate Edward Chancellor Jim Chanos Comments 33 The downside of dependence on China February 23 2010 3 09 pm Australia slid through the global financial crisis collecting far fewer scars than other western countries One could argue that this had something to do with excellent planning and positioning at a government corporate and individual level but just writing that sentence makes me chuckle I m convinced our experience had far more to do with a fortuitous set of circumstances that places our western nation right amongst the burgeoning east with a small population of 22 million people sharing a huge continent covered with valuable dirt By Gareth Brown II Posted in Gareth Brown Also tagged Chinese property Chinese real estate Jim Chanos Jim Rogers Michael Pettis short seller Thomas Friedman Comments 18 Intelligent Investor Analysts Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh Gaurav Sodhi and Jason Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/china-bubble/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Minding our own business on executive pay | Doddsville
    cast Minding our own business on executive pay 4 6 out of 5 based on 10 ratings This entry was written by James Carlisle II posted on at 12 36 pm filed under James Carlisle Management and tagged executive Gail Kelly Marius Kloppers Mike Smith pay remuneration salary super superannuation wages Bookmark the permalink Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post Post a comment or leave a trackback Trackback URL How bankers have a gun at your head Previous Entry Science lessons from spinach Next Entry 7 Responses Add Yours Discussion Richard Livingston II said Posted November 26 2012 at 1 38 pm CEO pay is often a reward for the person who can win the fight to get to the top not a reflection of the CEO s contribution As you suggest a key driver of this outcome is the weakness of our institutions in tackling the issue To some degree this is understandable it makes little difference to their performance and it would chew up a lot of time and effort if they were to kick up much of a fuss I m not sure any of us know whether Mike and Marius are worth their circa 10m although one suspects not However it really doesn t matter to the rest of us I think executive pay is one of the most over done issues out there second perhaps to whether the next budget result is a slight surplus or slight deficit There s tonnes of stuff that does really matter to investors Time and resources would be better spent on these areas than introducing a whole bunch of executive pay measures that achieve nothing that a good social media campaign couldn t achieve As a shareholder I d rather pay the CEO a bit more if in return they d agree not to rip me off on the next rights issue Reply Mars said Posted November 26 2012 at 3 39 pm If I can t trust the board on pay why should I trust them on anything else For my money invest in what and whom you trust and let all else take care of itself Or if you trust the board a little less than you d like factor it in in your purchase price Either way I d rather buy and then get out of the way If we all the market worried more about these things before investing rather than after then corporate behaviour would be a little different To expect the bulk of Super funds to have a different approach to that of the market at large is probably unrealistic Reply craig said Posted November 26 2012 at 3 43 pm The Australian Shareholders Association is very much across this issue and is using its group voting to try and achieve some change ASA has a proxy voting scheme where by members can deliver their rights to be voted in a block on these types of issues They

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/minding-our-own-business-on-executive-pay/ (2013-02-03)
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