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  • Currency | Doddsville
    the way the RBA does it You ll never lose I was told by my excitable source It s been a popular thesis but one that may be breaking down There are reasons to believe the currency will stay significantly higher than the revered 70c mark By Gaurav Sodhi TII Posted in Gaurav Sodhi Also tagged Australian dollar US dollar parity USD Comments 10 Intelligent Investor Analysts Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh Gaurav Sodhi and Jason Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/currency/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Resources Boom | Doddsville
    and gather feedback about their ASX research at Intelligent Investor Search Connect with us Recent Posts The origins of Passport Capital 15 568 days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/resources-boom/ (2013-02-03)
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  • The demise of the LME | Doddsville
    is unusual Is it an opportunity Not quite The copper market is changing and like most things commodities the role of China is crucial China now accounts for almost 40 of global copper demand and the Shanghai Futures Exchange has become an increasingly important warehouse for inventories It currently holds about 140 000 tonnes of copper More importantly however copper has become a de facto source of finance in China In an economy where capital is allocated by the state copper has become the centre of a shadow finance system where businesses borrow against copper holdings Inventory finance has become an increasingly popular way of bypassing the central governments squeeze on capital Businesses can purchase copper on margin and use the metal to borrow additional cash The tremendous increase in copper prices over the past decade has made this a popular and one sided bet As prices increase so does access to cash By some measures an additional 500 000 to 1 million tonnes of copper is stored in China unofficially as a result Vitally this tsunami of supply isn t counted on the books of warehouses like the LME or the Shanghai Futures Exchange The fact that LME inventories are falling is inconsequential against the official and unofficial metal holdings in China The days where LME data alone was enough to make judgements on the copper market are over VN F 1 9 20 1166 please wait Rating 4 3 5 8 votes cast The demise of the LME 4 3 out of 5 based on 8 ratings This entry was written by Gaurav Sodhi TII posted on at 2 49 pm filed under Gaurav Sodhi Resources and tagged China copper LME Bookmark the permalink Follow any comments here with the RSS feed for this post Post a comment or leave a trackback Trackback URL Income securities Conservative investments or junk bonds Previous Entry Twitter Wrap 29th August 2012 Next Entry 1 Responses Add Yours Discussion Daryl said Posted August 29 2012 at 11 45 am That leverage on leverage seems like a house of cards waiting to crumble and will likely result in a significant derating of copper maybe BHP executives have done well to mothball the Olympic Dam upgrade despite what the media has reported Is there a way to profit from a situation like this where you can see there is a likelyhood of an event occuring timing being a problem obviously This to me reminds me of the US housing bubble where leverage was applied to bad assetts In this case the assett is bad the copper not because what it is but because it already has debt against it Reply Leave a Comment Your email is never shared Required fields are marked Your Name Email Website Optional Your Comment Click to cancel reply Intelligent Investor Analysts Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh Gaurav Sodhi and Jason Prowd This blog is where they share their thoughts and gather feedback about their

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/the-demise-of-the-lme/ (2013-02-03)
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  • LME | Doddsville
    to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they share their thoughts

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/lme/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Slowing Canada’s housing market | Doddsville
    the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation the equivalent to the USA s Fannie and Freddie We don t have an equivalent government backed institution that provides mortgages so short of legislating the types of mortgages that can be provided in the Australian market the Australian government does not have the same levers Reply Smak said Posted August 7 2012 at 5 58 pm How can we be compared to the Canadians Their housing industry is much better regulated from what I observed when a Canadian relative s deceased estate was sold recently For example potential buyers have to submit written offers through the agents from which further negotiations can be made You would never get dodgy agents making offers to you which you cannot verify and can always be retracted later or maybe it s just the agent s excuse Either Australians are really idiots or we are just another developing nation Reply Jon said Posted August 7 2012 at 7 53 pm Well said Gaurav Narrow minded Australian policy makes for narrow minded Australian reform Reply peter c said Posted August 8 2012 at 12 35 pm Gaurav with respect I understand it is more difficult for the Australian Government to make similar moves Constitutionally housing is governed by State Governments not Federal Whilst the Federal Government may be able to limit the amount banks can lend other institutions such as building societies will take up the slack as long as there is money available to lend Back in the 1960 s and 70 s banks had similar restrictions They and borrowers got around the restriction by using finance company intermediaries For example If the Bank of New South Wales pre Westpac would only lend 50 of a house s value you would get the remaining amount needed from AGC owned by the Wales at higher interest rates of course That s how my parents bought their first home Reply Gareth Brown TII said Posted August 8 2012 at 4 06 pm One advantage of that old system Peter is that if the housing market tanks the government can come to the rescue of Westpac depositors while allowing AGC depositors who earned higher interest for taking on higher risk to take losses Now all the deposits within westpac are consider low risk low return That buffer has been removed and now the government effectively guarantees banks even if they re lending at very high LVRs with no help from higher risk higher return depositors It s effectively Westpac arbitraging the government guarantee to fatten its profit and it makes the system less stable Reply John S Reply August 9th 2012 at 1 06 pm Isn t this advantage retained under the current system by having the hybrid debt equity securities The government can come to the rescue of the depositors while allowing the the various hybrid holders and equity holders to lose their money The current method even has the advantage that the riskiness of the securities is clear

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/slowing-canadas-housing-market/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Australia | Doddsville
    days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they share their

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/australia/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Canada | Doddsville
    days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they share their

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/canada/ (2013-02-03)
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  • Housing Market | Doddsville
    days to the end of oil The worst deal I ve ever seen Doddsville podcast 20 December 2012 Best books of 2012 Recent Comments James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Samson commented on Harvey Norman crisis approaching David commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil James Carlisle II commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Nick Earls commented on 15 568 days to the end of oil Links Bristlemouth Gravy Train How To Invest Intelligent Investor Value Fund Walnut Report Authors Select Category Banking 3 Currency 5 Debt 9 Doddsville Podcast 36 Featured 4 Gareth Brown 48 Gaurav Sodhi 67 Greg Hoffman 27 International investing 10 James Carlisle 3 James Greenhalgh 56 Jason Prowd 18 John Addis 3 Lists 3 Macro environment 16 Management 21 Nathan Bell 43 Opinion 42 Portfolio management 7 Property 1 psychology 8 Resources 21 retail 11 Review 2 Stocks 58 Strategy 9 Telecommunications 1 Tim Searles 1 Twitter Wrap 25 Uncategorized 11 Value investing theory 7 Wayne Jones guest contributor 1 About Nathan Bell research director works alongside Gareth Brown James Greenhalgh and Gaurav Sodhi This blog is where they share their

    Original URL path: http://blog.intelligentinvestor.com.au/doddsville/tag/housing-market/ (2013-02-03)
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